Pass or Play: Mentee Takes on Winners in Sanford

Mentee captures his debut June 15 at Aqueduct (NYRA/Coglianese)

By Ashley Tamulonis and Laura Pugh

Lightning can indeed strike twice as we have seen in recent years. Better Than Honour produced back-to-back Belmont Stakes (G1) winners in Jazil (2006) and Rags to Riches (2007). More recently, Puca produced full brothers that made a name for themselves in the Triple Crown with Mage (2023) winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Dornoch (2024) winning the Belmont Stakes.

Rewind to June 15, and we saw Fierceness’s full brother Mentee make a dazzling debut at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. Fierceness’s debut race was more visually impressive as he pulled away to dominate by 11 ¼-lengths; however, Mentee set a new course record in winning his debut. Now the colt takes his show to Saratoga for the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes contested at 6-furlongs. Laura Pugh and Ashley Tamulonis debate whether Mentee is a lock to win or if another colt can upset the apple cart.

Laura’s Take

Ashley’s Take

Fierceness’s little brother made quite a splash upon his debut in June, and now the Todd Pletcher trainee is set to make his graded stakes bow in Saratoga’s Sanford Stakes. While his maiden win was impressive, including setting a new course record, I don’t think a win is a foregone conclusion.

Let’s start by looking at Mentee’s maiden victory. It was incredibly fast. It was so fast that he essentially fried most of his competition. Outside of the second place finisher, Colloquial, nobody was even close. There was a 4 ¼ -length break between Colloquial and the third place finisher, and it was another 5 ¾-lengths back to fourth place. While this might be impressive to some, I believe it is much more indicative of the rest of the field.

To date, none of the other horses in Mentee’s maiden race have returned to the starting gates. This makes it very difficult to judge the quality of the horses that he competed against on June 15th. However, given the fact that his speed figures didn’t come back off the charts (Equibase 81, Beyer 88, TimeformUS 108) would indicate that the race wasn’t as fast as the time would have us believe, but a result of a very souped up surface.

Even with these numbers, supporters will point out that Mentee towers over the field. Only the Tremont winner, Studlydoright is comparable, earning an 84 Equisbase speed figure and an 82 BSF. Considering the likely race shape of the Sanford Stake, it is quite likely that “Studly” will be the biggest threat for the upset.

Mentee will be breaking from the inside post, which leaves no margin for error, especially with two other speedballs to his outside. Mr. Squeaky Wheels doesn’t have a lot of dirt form, so it’s difficult to guess just how fast he could be on dirt, but the 3, Baby Dukes has an early speed rating of 119. Not as fast as Mentee’s 133, but given how fickle the form of 2-year-olds can be, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him try and push for as long as he can.

That type of setup is something that Mentee didn’t experience in his maiden win. He never felt the presence of another horse until Colloquial came ranging up in deep stretch. In this race, it’s probable that he will have company, which can cause even older, more experienced horses to wilt. It is also possible that Mentee could break slower from the inside, which could get him caught behind the two Baby Dukes and Mr. Squeaky Wheels. Should that happen, there is no way to know how he will take to dirt being thrown in his face or having to overcome adversity. If he’s like his older brother, chances are, he won’t want to run if things don’t go perfectly for him early.

Given the likely pace and pressure, the race sets up for a horse that wants to track or come off the pace. Mentee, in his only start to date, gave the impression of being one dimensional. He broke super sharp, then proceeded to set crazy fast opening splits, before slowing down quite a bit in his final 1/8th of a mile. While that is understandable, it raises a lot of red flags for his first time against winners, while also going an extra furlong.

Mentee certainly showed a good deal of brilliance in his only start, but in the Sanford Stakes, he will have to show more than that flashy juvenile speed. He’ll need to show grit and professionalism to come out on top. Is it possible? Sure it is, but we see far more often that flashy first time out winners are less substance and more flash. Pass.

Impressive indeed! Not only did Mentee set a new course record in his debut, he did so while exiting the outside post in a field of seven and appeared to be well within himself at the wire despite the nose margin of victory.

If we look at the stretch run, we can see John Velazquez give a quick glance over his should and another peek under his right arm to note that Mentee was lengths ahead of his nearest rival. Seeing the margin of advantage, Velazquez continued to ride Mentee to the wire without being aggressive about it. He essentially kept the colt to task without pushing him or going for the crop. While Colloquial was fully extended to catch Mentee, Mentee appeared to be in hand with more left to give had he been asked.

If we look back at the last 10 winners of the Sanford, we do find that the 81 Equibase speed figure Mentee earned in his debut is on the low end of what is typical of Sanford winners heading into that race. However, it is a higher figure than what the most recent two Sanford winners put up. In 2022, Mo Strike received an 80 for his debut win before triumphing in the Sanford. Yo Yo Candy, meanwhile, earned a 67 while finishing 3^rd in the Tremont before upsetting the Sanford at 46-1. He had earned a 76 for winning his debut.

Again, in looking back at the past 10 winners of this race, we see that Mentee fits the winning pattern. Seven winners were pacesetters or closely pressed the pace. All ten of the previous winners were either debut victors making their second start or were non-winners of the Tremont Stakes making their third career start. That takes Studlydoright out of the running if you’re one that adheres to patterns. The son of Nyquist comes in off a win in the Tremont with a sustained run style. No Tremont victor has also won the Sanford, and it’s been 9 years since a colt has won the Sanford by closing into the pace.

Another thing that detracts from Studlydoright’s likelihood of winning the Sanford is the field he faced in the Tremont. Five of his seven rivals were first time starters. Of those seven rivals, two have made subsequent starts. Fifth-place finisher Brereton’s Baytown has actually made two starts since the Tremont: a 4^th place effort in a 5 ½-furlong, $92,000 maiden event at Churchill Downs and an 11^th place effort in a 1-mile, $71,000 maiden event on turf at Ellis Park. Sixth-place finisher Dew was 4^th next out in a 6-furlong, $90,000 maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet.

Race Lens predicts that the Sanford pace will likely be a slow one. Of the two other colts that appear most likely to contest the pace with Mentee, only Mo Plex put up comparable splits in his debut. However, the son of Complexity faced state-bred company while winning his debut by 10-lengths and a field-best 89 Equibase speed figure. He would be the most likely to upset Mentee, especially with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons.

John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher are a proven commodity together, and Mentee has displayed the same talent that his full brother Fierceness showed last year en route to winning both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Champion 2-Year Old Male. Meanwhile, Mage and Dornoch have proven that lightning can strike twice in consecutive years. Mentee also has the pattern tools to win this. For me, he is an absolute play.

Laura doesn’t think Mentee can make it two-for-two with a Sanford win citing potential pace scenarios and a lack of knowing what the colt beat in his debut, among other things. Meanwhile, Ashley finds Mentee to be a solid top choice based on previous winning patterns in prior runnings of the Sanford.