By Jim Gazzale
Another positive week last week as we went 2-1-1 across four games. Our season stats are near 52% at 33-28-3.
We have another four-pack of games, so let’s get right to it.
Detroit (+6) at Dallas
Dallas suffered a tough loss last week to the Miami Dolphins and, in the process, gave up the NFC East lead and likely a home playoff game.
Detroit clinched its first NFC North division title since 1993 last week and has little left to prove in the regular season.
According to BetMGM, this game is the most heavily bet game of the weekend. We’ve already seen the line drift in Dallas’ favor despite more money and bets on Detroit. That typically signals sharper players are on The Boys.
We’re going to go against that, though. These teams are evenly matched and provide similar offensive statistics across the board, so if Dallas needs to beat me by more than a touchdown, I’ll gladly take the points with a Lions’ team that still has an outside shot at the top seed in the NFC.
Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore
Both of these teams are coming off huge wins last week against playoff teams. Miami can put itself in position for the top seed and first-round bye in the AFC with a win.
The Dolphins are banged up, it doesn’t look like Waddle will suit up, so expect a heavy dose of Tyreek Hill.
Also, looking at the BetMGM bet splits for this game, the line hasn’t moved despite Baltimore taking 66% of the money. Normally, you might expect to see the line move when the balance of dollars is so heavily on one side. We haven’t seen it budge, suggesting that smart money is on Miami.
LA Rams (-6) at New York Giants
This is an interesting matchup, given how well LA has performed offensively in recent weeks. One thing you can say about the Rams is that now healthy, the offense is putting up points.
The Giants defense is OK, a middle-of-the-road type that I think will have its hands full with the Rams.
LA needs a win to keep its spot in the playoffs, while the Giants don’t have much to play for at this point. Giving up less than a touchdown seems reasonable, with big money coming in on Los Angeles.
The Rams have more than 80% of tickets and 70% of the money in this matchup. That’s a huge discrepancy which generally makes me think twice, but with how much LA has scored in recent weeks and a Giants offense that, while Tyrod Taylor offers a bit more hope than Tommy Cutlets, still seems to struggle to put it all together.
I think LA scores, and New York struggles to keep up.
Pittsburgh at Seattle (-3.5)
Another week, another wager on Seattle. Our model loves the Seahawks each and every week. Probably because they move the ball and convert third downs with the best of them.
Both of these teams need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Seattle is the superior team in almost every statistical category, plus they are at home.
BetMGM has a pretty even bet split on this matchup, too, so we haven’t seen any line movement. That said, the Under 41 is one of the most bet totals this weekend. If we use the hypothesis that the betting public is, more often than not, wrong, then this game figures to go over, which then opens it up for a wider gap in scoring between the two sides.
I think the combo of Seattle being better offensively and at home in a must-win game gives us a win by 4 points or more.
Thanks for reading, and good luck!
