By Jim Gazzale
Get your NFL betting game of the week insights every Sunday here: https://www.youtube.com/@PastTheWireTV/shorts
How to use NFL betting power ratings
Hey everybody, Big Race Jim back again with your NFL betting Week 16 power ratings.
We’ve gone completely cold! We missed on both of our plays last week as the Jets (I know, I know, never bet a game involving the Jets) relied on two wacky plays to win and cover against Jacksonville and the Patriots laid an absolute egg against Arizona.
We’re 12-5 on the season and in need of a reversal of fortune.
The Lions are still at the top of the heap this week even though their defense continues to get exposed. Since Thanksgiving against the Bears, you could tell the Detroit defense has been struggling.
The Giants are stuck at the bottom. They appear to have given up. The ratings also appear to like Tampa Bay for whatever reason.
Let’s break down the ratings. I like to use a 20-point scale for my ratings, 10 to -10, as we’ve seen the top teams really beat up on the bottom feeders in recent years. There’s also nothing wrong with using a 14 or 16-point scale either, just adjust your top and bottom ends to suit your needs.
So to explain again, let’s say the Lions were playing the Giants at a neutral site. According to my ratings, the Lions would be 20-point favorites since 20 in the difference between 10 and -10.
How to adjust NFL betting lines
Now, you may be thinking: Jim, there are 32 teams in the league, so not every team will have a whole number (10 through -10). That is correct and that is where you can get creative.
These ratings are a starting point. The initial spread for Lions-Giants might be 20 points on this sheet, but you can adjust for home field advantage, player matchups, coaching matchups, trends, and so on. It is really up to you how much you want to adjust the point spread.
For example, Philadelphia and Minnesota are listed 8th and 9th on the Week 16 ratings. If they were playing each other, you could start it as a pick ‘em, then adjust based on who was home, any injuries, how the two teams have matched up against each other in recent years, and so on to set your own personal point spread.
How to bet on the NFL using power ratings
Once you have your point spread determined, shop around! Look at multiple sportsbooks to see who is offering you the best value. That could mean the lowest price, as -110 is much different than -105, or -115. Value could also mean a half-point around key NFL betting numbers like 3, 7, and 10.
Set your lines, shop around, look for value, and good luck!
