We’re back with the Christmas weekend edition of NFL Betting on Past the Wire. It was a nice little bounce-back week in Week 15 as we hit 2 of 3 games to run our season record to 31-27-2, just shy of 52%.
Keep in mind, always check the injury reports leading up to game time. A key player being absent can make a world of difference, especially when we’re in need of a point or two either way.
It seems the only team that doesn’t apply is the Miami Dolphins, who crushed my New York Jets last week 30-0 without superstar speedster Tyreek Hill.
We have a four-pack of bets this weekend, so let’s get into it.
Detroit (-3) at Minnesota
This matchup has a lot of playoff implications for both teams. A Lions win and they take the division title for the first time since 1993. A Vikings win and they keep pace in the NFC playoff race. A loss from Minnesota, and they have an uphill climb into the tournament.
To me, the Lions turned a corner after getting crushed by the Packers on Thanksgiving. Their offense is solid and I think they’ll be motivated to close out this division crown.
That’s not to say the Vikings are overmatched here, they’re not. Nick Mullens was fine last week against the Bengals, and you could argue they had every right to win that game. A few turnovers from Mullens ultimately put them on the wrong side of that one, but he’s a fine replacement for what’s been a strange season for QBs in Minnesota.
I think Detroit has a bit more offensive firepower than Minnesota, and that’s what makes the difference here.
Seattle (-3) at Tennessee
If you haven’t noticed, this rating system loves the Seahawks. They delivered for us last week and need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Seattle moves the ball, gaining 6.8 yards per play. They convert third downs and only go three-and-out half the time. All of these are vastly superior to Tennessee, which has little to play for at this point.
The Seahawks should have Geno Smith back in the lineup too, which will help. My ratings put this at a more than 10-point spread, so if we only need to cover the 3, I see some value there.
Seattle opened at -2.5 and moved to -3, suggesting some decent money is backing them as well.
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Atlanta
The Colts opened as a 2-point favorite, then the line quickly flipped to them getting 2.5 points. I honestly don’t know what to make of it, as we’ll likely see Taylor Heinicke leading the Falcons.
Gardner Minshew has been a legend in Indianapolis this season, keeping the team afloat after Anthony Richardson went down with a season-ending injury. While he’s not lighting the world on fire, he has been winning games.
That’s more than the Falcons can say in recent weeks. They’ve dropped two straight and 5 of their last 7, with the wins coming against the Jets and Saints.
I can’t trust them and our ratings put Indy as a field goal favorite, so we need to back them in this spot.
Baltimore (+5.5) at San Francisco
Our ratings have these two teams damn near even. So if you’re going to give me 5.5 points, I’ll take it.
This should be a great game and possible Super Bowl preview. San Francisco’s top-rated offense going up against Baltimore’s top-rated defense. I think where we’ll see a difference in this match-up is on third downs.
Baltimore converts nearly 43% of its third downs, one of the best in the league. San Francisco on the other hand, just 34%, one of the worst in the league. To me, that gives Baltimore an edge with its defense, as most other stat categories are largely the same.
So in a game where it should be a total toss-up, I’ll grab a few extra points in my favor with the Ravens.
Thanks for reading, and good luck!
