By Jim Gazzale
Get your NFL betting game of the week insights every Sunday here: https://www.youtube.com/@PastTheWireTV/shorts
How to use NFL betting power ratings
Hey everybody, Big Race Jim back again with your NFL betting Week 15 power ratings.
I wrote the article last week and completely forgot to post a weekly pick. My sincerest apologies. The season record stands at 12-3 after we missed two weeks back. To make up for it, here are a few bits of data I’ve spotted so far this week.
- Carolina Panthers at home against the Cowboys. Dallas opened up as a 1.5 point favorite on the road, now it’s flipped to Carolina -2.5 in some spots.
- Jets visiting Jacksonville and 70% of bets at DraftKings are on New York. The line opened up with the Jets as 3.5 point favorites and that line is still creeping down to 3.
Let’s dive into the weekly ratings as the Lions remained in the top spot, while the New York Giants found themselves at the bottom yet again.
I like to use a 20-point scale for my ratings, 10 to -10, as we’ve seen the top teams really beat up on the bottom feeders in recent years. There’s also nothing wrong with using a 14 or 16-point scale either, just adjust your top and bottom ends to suit your needs.
So to explain again, let’s say the Lions were playing the Giants at a neutral site. According to my ratings, the Lions would be 20-point favorites since 20 in the difference between 10 and -10.
How to adjust NFL betting lines
Now, you may be thinking: Jim, there are 32 teams in the league, so not every team will have a whole number (10 through -10). That is correct and that is where you can get creative.
These ratings are a starting point. The initial spread for Lions-Patriots might be 20 points on this sheet, but you can adjust for home field advantage, player matchups, coaching matchups, trends, and so on. It is really up to you how much you want to adjust the point spread.
For example, Cincinnati and Minnesota are listed 8th and 9th on the Week 15 ratings. If they were playing each other, you could start it as a pick ‘em, then adjust based on who was home, any injuries, how the two teams have matched up against each other in recent years, and so on to set your own personal point spread.
How to bet on the NFL using power ratings
Once you have your point spread determined, shop around! Look at multiple sportsbooks to see who is offering you the best value. That could mean the lowest price, as -110 is much different than -105, or -115. Value could also mean a half-point around key NFL betting numbers like 3, 7, and 10.
Set your lines, shop around, look for value, and good luck!
