I love it when The Sport of Kings doesn’t disappoint. This past weekend’s races, highlighted by The San Antonio Stakes, certainly lived up to their billing. The anticipated showdown, prematurely called a rivalry in horse racing, between Kentucky Derby and Preakness champ, and Horse of the Year, California Chrome, and the actual best horse last year, Shared Belief, lived up to all it’s hype. California Chrome, on his game and full of run, moved to the lead effortlessly under Victor Espinoza, and looked on his way to a smashing triumph; however, it was not to be. The waters here were a tad deeper than what he was able to handle as a three year old, and Shared Belief pulled alongside in the stretch, and showed California Chrome, and the rest of the racing world who was really the best horse in The Breeders’ Cup Classic, and certainly on Saturday. Despite feeling Victor Espinoza’s whip six times from the 1/16th pole to the wire the champ could not hold on to his crown.
As a student of the game and longtime handicapper, I always try to learn from my observations. If you share a similar philosophy, then you know this game will keep you both busy and humble. It will also provide great rewards, especially when you are right. It was obvious to me last year the controversial start to The Breeders’ Cup Classic significantly impacted the race, and any chance Shared Belief had to win it. I was perplexed as to how the stewards could see it any other way. Something I noted in the 20 or 25 minutes leading up to The San Antonio on Saturday brought it all into proper perspective. We’ll come back to that later. For now, let’s look at the race and some other things we can learn from it.
There is no question this race was highly anticipated. It was the match up racing wanted and deserved, and it was going to happen early in the year. It was also happening when both horses were in peak form, training great, and without excuse. Prior to Saturday, California Chrome and Shared Belief raced each other just once, in a race neither won. That race was The Breeders’ Cup Classic in which Chrome ran third with a perfect trip, and Shared Belief ran fourth after being all but eliminated at the start. Just once, and neither won. Yet this was billed as a great rivalry. It was compared to some of the great rivalries in racing, and by some who are widely considered to have credibility. Now granted, as handicappers, we pride ourselves and survive on knowing what is going to happen before it actually does. I’ll be the first to admit there are times when I know who will win a race before it is run, Saturday was one of those times. But to know a rivalry before it actually develops, especially in the fickle game of horse racing requires a crystal ball. I’ve found nowhere where they are sold.
Steve Haskin of BloodHorse magazine called this a rivalry on par with some of the greats in racing. He mentioned Affirmed and Alydar, Dr. Fager and Damascus and Buckpasser, among others. They had raced once and neither won. Calling this a rivalry at that point or even this point in time on a par with those, is an insult to the history of the sport, besides being plain wrong. He wasn’t alone either, as all you heard in the build-up was the rematch in this great rivalry. I understand the deep rooted need for excitement in The Sport of Kings, and the lust for the next great champion, or the thirst for a Triple Crown winner, but you can’t force it. Good things come to those who wait and it’ll happen. It always does, but you can’t rush greatness or history. Just sit back and enjoy the run and savor the moment when it arrives. Here we have the telecast leading up to the race and the commentators are talking about the great rivalry. Just once and neither won. Maybe we will have a rivalry, and maybe we won’t, it would be great to have, but let’s let it happen first.
Differences of opinion are what fuels horse racing and pari-mutual wagering. Many things in the game are in fact opinion based. Some aren’t and it helps to know the difference. Maybe we need better defined guidelines for some things. Eclipse voters have been getting it wrong a tad too often of late, for the award to keep its prestige in the eyes of some long time racing people. How does Gary Stevens accomplish one of the greatest feats in sports, let alone horse racing, by coming off a 7 year hiatus, and winning The Preakness, The Breeders’ Cup Distaff, The Breeders’ Cup Classic amongst others and not get the Eclipse? It was quite the outstanding achievement and will never be duplicated. The voters squandered celebrating it. How was Victor Espinoza not a finalist this year? He only rode the Derby and Preakness winner, the Horse of the Year, the Three Year Old Champ, the Two Year Old Filly Champ, I mean come on, Victor deserved to be at least a finalist. All this and California Chrome gets votes for turf horse. That alone tells you something is wrong. The Hall of Fame is even worse. Ask King Leatherbury.
California Chrome attracted a legion of loyal fans early in his three year old season. They lauded him the next great horse and had him all but the next Triple Crown winner. They made excuses for him when there were none, and attacked and labeled anyone who didn’t praise him a hater. Even Saturday you saw and read things like; it was just a prep, he needed the race, they only hand rode him, they weren’t trying, it’s only one race, and anything else they could think of to explain why he lost. I have little doubt the hype at least influenced some of the voters who gave him the Horse of the Year title when the reality is a) the three year olds beat each other all year, b) Bayern beat him 2-1 decisively, c) he hasn’t won on dirt since last May, d) the Derby and Preakness fields were weak and most of the good three year olds were absent, e) Main Sequence was undefeated and dominated his division, f) Shared Belief was better and faster and but for a foul at the start, was the undefeated and undisputed champ.
After Saturday’s race, Mike Watchmaker tweeted he was a fan of both California Chrome and Shared Belief and both were good but Shared Belief was better. I asked him who he voted for in the Horse of the Year category. He said Chrome. I’d have voted for the best horse. Isn’t the best horse The Horse of the Year? I thought so.
Next you will hear how great for racing he is and how he has done so much for the sport. I’d have to put this into the opinion category. Now while I do not entirely disagree, I also see arguments far more heated than that of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. I see name calling and hater labeling, unfriending, blocking, blasting, unfollowing, and whatever else social media permits, all because opinions on a race horse differs. I don’t know that that type of division and those heated arguments are really good for the game. Maybe they are, but to me the jury is still out.
Now let’s get back to what matters and what puts it all in perspective. Money talks, everything else walks. It’s always been that way. Who are really the ones who knew the better horse? Was it the voters, writers, fans, or followers? After all, they made the most noise, and did the most lobbying, and were condescending to anyone who disagreed. They celebrated his Horse of the Year as a vindication. But that is what really turned out to be subjective, not if the start of The Breeders’ Cup impacted the outcome. Again money talks, and smart money talks loudest. Despite all those expert opinions touting Chrome, despite all his fans, despite all the insistence he was the best and worthy of Horse of the Year, despite all those voters, and all the $2 souvenir win tickets, despite all those arguments that Shared Belief wasn’t affected because the left turn by Bayern was at the start, at no point in the wagering was Chrome favored. Shared Belief was the favorite from the time the windows opened until the gate sprung. That spoke loudest and put things in perspective. The smart money knew where to go.
In the aftermath of The Breeders’ Cup Classic, I tried to reason with fans and voters that Shared Belief was best that day. There were all types of subjective discussions and I participated in many of them. I thought my best way of illustrating the point was as a handicapper. I told everyone they can say and think what they want, the proof to me is if they line them up again, I’m all in on Shared Belief.
The great rivalry as they called it has hopefully begun. It will be great to see these two go at it again but, as a handicapper I don’t see a lot of reason for the tables to turn. Maybe, who knows, but nothing jumps out pointing to a different result. We will have to wait for the next round; however, as California Chrome is taking his show on the road to Dubai. Shared Belief is pointing to The Santa Anita Handicap.
It’s no surprise Shared Belief is back for us to enjoy at 4. He is a gelding. It’s a little more surprising that California Chrome is, in this modern age of commercial breeding, where horses who win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and get crowned with two Eclipse Awards, including Horse of the Year, are considerably more valuable in the breeding shed than on the racetrack. Further, on the track, things can change in a split second. Usually these horses’ connections are inundated with offers that make it almost impossible to race over breed. While I have heard of no public offers to stand him, perhaps there have been some and the owners chose sportsmanship for who they have called the people’s and America’s horse. Or maybe the Kentucky Breeding scholars are skeptical of the modest pedigree this immensely talented horse has outrun.
It’s no secret The Dubai World Cup has lost some luster. That was not helped by the lack of participation of American horses since they switched the track to synthetic. In an effort to revitalize the race they have switched back to dirt and I have no doubt, in addition to the monstrous purse, they will do anything within reason to get a Kentucky Derby winning Horse of the Year over there. California Chrome will likely be up against some turf and synthetic horses and should be mighty competitive. I imagine if nasal strips aren’t allowed there they will make a concession. Lasix is another story and let’s hope he can perform in the desert without it and keep himself together afterwards.
Tonight can you all say a prayer for my friend Jockey Agent Lou, who is also a friend to racing and a man who helps anyone he can. His wife is fighting to recover from some health problems and they need all the prayers they can get. Thank you.
High Five
Gulfstream put on a heck of a show Saturday. The card had a Breeders’ Cup or championship feel to it and I love closing it out with the run of stakes ending with the featured Donn. I wish more tracks would follow suit.
Low Five
Fox, the racing coverage is horrible. Get better.
