Retired corporate attorney Matt Miller, the 2025 King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge winner, with his book “A Bettor Way of Thinking.” (Photo Courtesy Matt Miller)
2025 King of the Turf and National Turf Handicapper of the Year
“I’ve already warned my family they are going to be so embarrassed at all the places I’m wearing this thing,” says winner of The Belt
Kentucky Downs Release
FRANKLIN, Ky. — Matt Miller is your 2025 King of the Turf and National Turf Handicapper of the Year. Most importantly to him, he gets to wear The Belt.
Chicagoland’s Miller won Kentucky Downs’ King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge presented by Race Lens with a final live bankroll of $12,154.90, beating runner-up Rich Averill by $793.85.
Miller won a seat in the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC), with his $10,000 BCBC buy-in paid for. He also earned $27,625 in prize money, in addition to his bankroll. And for finishing second opening day in Kentucky Downs’ first of two play-in tournaments, Miller received a travel package and seat in the 2026 National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) in addition to a free entry in the King of the Turf, which had a $2,500 buy-in.
But the retired corporate attorney from Northbrook, Ill., said the best part was knowing he will receive the Global Tote King of the Turf belt, patterned after professional boxing, wrestling and mixed martial arts championship trophies. The personalized belt will be presented Miller next March at the 2026 NHC awards dinner.
“I texted Dr. Tang in the morning,” Miller said by phone, referring to 2024 King of the Turf winner Dr. Ronald Tang. “I said, ‘I’m coming for it. I really want this thing.’ … A wrestling belt is next level. I’ve already warned my family they are going to be so embarrassed at all the places I’m wearing this thing.”
He’s not so sure about being proclaimed National Turf Handicapper of the Year.
“It’s not imposter syndrome,” said Miller, who says he looks at tournament play as a numbers game and isn’t particularly focused on the horses. “But there are some really great handicappers out there, and I’m not one of them. I finished second in the first one (play-in tournament), and then I obviously won the big one. That is far more a function of tournament strategy and game theory than it is being a great horse picker.”
Miller, winner of the 2021 BCBC, literally wrote a book on tournament strategy: “A Bettor Way of Thinking: How Risk and Reward Have Shaped My View of Gambling, Life, and Movie Theater Popcorn.”
He said he plays feeder tournaments to earn entry to the big event, rather than paying out of pocket. He broke with that guiding principle to buy a second hand in the King of the Turf for the $2,500 buy-in, with $1,500 serving as the live-money bankroll and $1,000 toward the prizes. That turned out to be the winning hand.
According to Miller’s strategy, the King of the Turf essentially was over after Saturday’s second race, when he went all in for his first play of the online, live-money tournament. The King of the Turf rules require the player to bet a minimum of $300 apiece on a minimum of five races on the 12-race card.
With his two hands, Miller bet his entire $1,500 bankroll to win on 4-1 Gilded Craken on one hand and the $1,500 to win for his second hand on Risk Manager, who went off at just under 7-1. Depending on that outcome, Miller could have been tapped out with those single plays, a one-and-done. Instead, with apologies to the King’s English, he done won. The appropriately named Risk Manager wound up beating Gilded Craken by a neck in the second race, paying $15.84 to win and giving Miller the lead at $11,835 playing at home in Illinois.
Though he did blow the hand that bet on Gilded Craken, Miller felt pretty confident that his winning wager put him in an almost untouchable position. Miller said he waits to bet the other races after his big lick — if he’s still in the tournament after that. Calling it “time to ‘show-lax’ — to relax by betting to show — he bet the minimum required on races 3, 4, 5 and 6, betting up to four horses to show.
“I’m just trying to save my $300,” he said. “The crazy thing about the way the rest of the tournament went, it has to be like 25 separate bets I made on the entire day.”
Miller said he cashed on every race, using race 4 as an example, “The $300 of show bets I made got me back $436. That’s not amazing, but if all I’m trying to do is tread water, it’s plenty good.”
After he bet the requisite minimum races, Miller stood pat, though he said he was prepared to make an extremely aggressive play if he thought another player was in position to catch him.
“I just went four races in a row, folded my arms and said, ‘Come catch me,’” Miller said. “… The entire day I’m looking over my shoulder, went through the excruciating process at the end of hitting reload frantically for 20 minutes” after the last race until the final results were posted.
Had someone appeared to make a serious run at the lead, Miller said he was prepared to make a huge play on his best bet of the day: Shisospicy in race 9, the $2 million, Grade 2 AGS Music City. That 3-year-old filly won by three lengths, paying $8.42 as the third choice.
“The joke is that the horse I was going to play later, if I had to, did win,” he
said. “Ironically, if someone had passed me in the tournament, I would have won a lot more money…. I would have jumped back into the water if I’d had to, and my total would have been gigantic.
“… One of my principles for doing well in these things is to bet with conviction, especially at a place like Kentucky Downs, where it’s hard to hit a lot of winners in one day. I’d rather just smash one or two (races), rather than try to pick it apart slowly. So I’m prepared to exit the tournament after the second race, which I admit would have ruined my day for a lot of reasons.”
Miller calls the King of the Turf one of the premier tournaments, right behind the handicapping majors BCBC and NHC. He had particular praise for King of the Turf tournament director Brian Skirka.
“Brian runs a great tournament,” he said. “His tournaments are ones players seek out. Thanks to Kentucky Downs for making it extra fun with the belt. Thanks for the normal good job. But, for real, the belt makes it extra fun.”
The 2025 King of the Turf top 10 finishers
Name (final bankroll) * prize * cash prize
- Matt Miller ($12,154.90) * BCBC * $27,625
- Rich Averill ($11,361.55) * BCBC * $11,050
- Michael Caposio ($8,878.80) * NHC * $6,630
- George Bosch ($8,652.00) * BCBC * $3,867
- Matt Walsh ($5,191.55) * NHC * $1,933
- Anthony Mattera ($4,046.00) * NHC * $829
- Evan Trommer ($3,798.00) * x-$5,300 * $829
- Joseph Mckay ($3,775.40) * NHC * $829
- Michael Kavana ($2,959.98) * — * $829
- Richard Nilsen ($2,006.34) * — * $829
BCBC – Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge ($10,000 buy-in). NHC – National Horseplayers Championship. X- Trommer already had double-qualified for the NHC and received $5,300 instead
