Lukas, American Promise Next ‘Derby’ Move

March 20, 2025

American Promise scoring the Virginia Derby. (Coady Media/Kurtis Coady)

Derby Dispatch

LOUISVILLE, Ky.—The Road to the 151st Kentucky Derby kicks into high gear Saturday with the season’s first 100-point qualifying races – the $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (Grade II) and $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (GIII).

One week ago, American Promise put himself into the Derby conversation with a determined victory in the VirginiaDerby, giving Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas a legitimate contender at age 89.

The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds features a competitive field of 10, led by Sam F. Davis Stakes winner John Hancock. Meanwhile, Turfway Park hosts the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (GIII), headlined by Remsen (GII) winner Poster, who will square off against John Battaglia Memorial victor California Burrito in an over-subscribed field of 12 with one also-eligible.

With just six weeks remaining until Derby Day, preparations are ramping up at Churchill Downs. On Tuesday, the backstretch reopened, and horses have begun settling into their spring home ahead of the Spring Meet, which kicks off Saturday, April 26.

Key Races To Watch To Watch 

This weekend there are several races around the world that could have implications on the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Here are some of the key races:

Saturday

TP, R8 (4:13 p.m.), $250,000 Rushaway, 3yo, 1 1/16 M

TP, R11 (5:43 p.m.), $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks (Listed), 3yo f, 1 1/16 M

FG, R11 (6:08 p.m.), $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks (GII), 3yo f, 1 1/16 M

TP, R12 (6:25 p.m.), $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (GIII), 3yo, 1 1/8 M

FG, R12 (6:42 p.m.), $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (GII), 3yo, 1 3/16 M

DOWN THE STRETCH … … …… …..

The Road to the Kentucky Oaks continues Saturday at Fair Grounds with the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) and Turfway Park’s $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks (Listed). The Fair Grounds Oaks, featuring undefeated Good Cheer, will award the top five finishers qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale toward a spot in the $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI) on Friday, May 2 at Churchill Downs. The Bourbonette Oaks awards qualifying points to the top five on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. …

Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) winner Owen Almighty is set to prep for the Kentucky Derby in the April 5 Blue Grass Stakes (GI), according to trainer Brian LynchJose Ortiz, who rode Owen Almighty in his debut victory, will have the call. …

Owner Mike Repole reported on X that impressive maiden special weight winner Disruptor would run in the March 29 Florida Derby (GI) while allowance-winning stablemate Grande would run in the April 5 Wood Memorial (GII). …

About 200 horses arrived back at Churchill Downs on Tuesday morning following annual winter renovations. The first trainer to arrive was Cherie DeVaux followed by Mike Maker and Kelsey Danner

Upcoming Road To Kentucky Derby Races

March 29 (five weeks out) – $1 million Florida Derby (GI), 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park (Top 5 points: 100-50-25-15-10): Known possible starters (with trainer): Disruptor (Todd Pletcher); Jimmy’s Dailys (Brian Lynch); Neoequos (Saffie Joseph Jr.); Sovereignty (Bill Mott);Tappan Street (Brad Cox)

March 29 (five weeks out) – $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (GI), 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn (Top 5 points: 100-50-25-15-10): Known possible starters (with trainer): Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley); Getaway Car (Bob Baffert); Sandman (Mark Casse); Speed King (Ron Moquett)

April 5 (four weeks out) – $1.25 million Blue Grass (GI), 1 1/8 miles, Keeneland (Top 5 points: 100-50-25-15-10): Known possible starters (with trainer): Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes); Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley); East Avenue (Brendan Walsh);Hill Road (Chad Brown);Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch); River Thames (Todd Pletcher)

April 5 (four weeks out) – $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (GI), 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita (Top 5 points: 100-50-25-15-10): Known possible starters (with trainer): Baeza (John Shirreffs); Barnes (Bob Baffert); Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert); Journalism (Michael McCarthy)

April 5 (four weeks out) – $750,000 Wood Memorial (GII), 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct (Top 5 points: 100-50-25-15-10): Known possible starters (with trainer): Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow Jr.);Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown);Grande (Todd Pletcher); Hill Road (Chad Brown); Sand Devil (Linda Rice);

April 12 (three weeks out) – $400,000 Lexington (GIII), 1 1/16 miles, Keeneland (Top 5 points: 20-10-6-4-2)

Note: The possible fields for upcoming Kentucky Derby Championship Series races are fluid as owners and trainers vie for points. Known possible horses mentioned to be under consideration for each race are based on published news reports and other sources. Horses listed in italics are possible for multiple races.

ROAD TO KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD –

PositionHorseTrainerResumePossible Next StartPoints
1Coal BattleLonnie Briley1st – Rebel1st – Springboard MileMarch 29 Arkansas Derby or April 5 Blue Grass or May 3 Kentucky Derby70
2Owen AlmightyBrian Lynch1st – Tampa Bay Derby2nd – Sam F. Davis2nd – IroquoisApril 5 Blue Grass65
3Citizen BullBob Baffert1st – Robert B. Lewis1st – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile1st – American PharoahApril 5 Santa Anita Derby60
4SovereigntyBill Mott1st – Fountain of Youth1st – Street SenseMarch 29 Florida Derby60
5American PromiseWayne Lukas1st – Virginia Derby5th – Risen StarTBA 
6Flood ZoneBrad Cox1st – GothamApril 5 UAE Derby50
7JournalismMichael McCarthy1st – San Felipe1st – Los Al FuturityApril 5 Santa Anita Derby47.5
8Getaway CarBob Baffert1st – Sunland Derby2nd – Los Al Futurity2nd – American Pharoah4th – Virginia DerbyTBA36
9Chancer McPatrickChad Brown1st – Champagne2nd – Tampa Bay DerbyApril 5 Wood Memorial35
10BuiltWayne Catalano1st – Gun Runner2nd – Lecomte3rd – Risen StarMarch 29 Louisiana Derby35
11Madaket RoadBob Baffert2nd – Rebel3rd – Robert B. LewisTBA31
12Burnham SquareIan Wilkes1st – Holy Bull4th – Fountain of YouthApril 5 Blue Grass30
13SandmanMark Casse2nd – Southwest3rd – Rebel3rd – Street SenseMarch 29 Arkansas Derby29
14Render JudgmentKenny McPeek2nd – Virginia Derby3rd – Gun Runner5th – Kentucky Jockey ClubTBA 
15Omaha OmahaMichael Gorham2nd – Jerome3rd – Virginia Derby3rd – WithersTBA 
16Speed KingRon Moquett1st – Southwest2nd – Springboard MileMarch 29 Arkansas Derby25
17Chunk of GoldEthan West2nd – Risen StarMarch 22 Louisiana Derby25
18River ThamesTodd Pletcher2nd – Fountain of YouthApril 5 Blue Grass25
19Sand DevilLinda Rice2nd – GothamApril 5 Wood Memorial25
20Hill RoadChad Brown3rd – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile3rd – Tampa Bay DerbyApril 5 Blue Grass24

Great call @jonathanstettin on Cogburn!!!! #membership

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