Lessons Learned in the Dubai World Cup

April 1, 2015

Meydan Race Course in Dubai


The Sport of Kings delivered an action packed weekend, as expected, with racing both here in the US and across the globe in Dubai. The Kentucky Derby picture became a tad clearer with major prep races in Florida, Louisiana, and Dubai. Next weekend we have another high stakes day that features three of the four final major Kentucky Derby preps, The Bluegrass, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. The Arkansas Derby follows the next Saturday. That should pretty much stamp the tickets for the Run for the Roses and start the final training preparations, and of course our serious handicapping. We also got to see California Chrome take his show on the road, competing in the world’s richest Thoroughbred horse race, The Dubai World Cup. With its record $10 million purse, the backdrop of a beautiful city, and a top shelf racing venue, The Dubai World Cup makes a nice addition to any horse’s resume. If that wasn’t enough, we were treated to another stewards’ fiasco that rivals some of the better ones we’ve seen the past few years. There were many lessons learned and we will go over the take aways.

The best of what we saw, however, came in the performance of a few equine athletes who really showed what heart and talent are all about.

One of those performances came from Florida Derby winner Materiality. Making only his third start, and coming back somewhat quickly from his dominating performance in The Islamorada, a race which saw his sheet figure lunge forward, this Afleet Alex colt had every right to regress. He was moving up in class against more seasoned horses and also running over a track that had become heavy and tiring. Materiality showed no signs of slowing down just yet as he ran a strong and powerful race to hold off the experienced and highly regarded Upstart. No doubt he was helped by the crafty and aggressive race riding by John Velasquez in the stretch, who showed when the big money is down, he can still get down and dig with the best of them. The trick is to get him to ride like that on Wednesdays like he used to. That aside, Materiality was game and showed heart and fight, good things to have on the first Saturday in May. He has to dodge the Apollo jinx, but that is inevitable at some point. If he doesn’t bounce, he should be a contender and I will be watching his training closely leading up to the big dance.

While highly regarded by many, Upstart has never looked like a Derby horse to me. Further, I thought he looked tired in The Fountain of Youth and was not sure he wasn’t going the wrong way. I still think so and while he forced all Materiality had, he was supposed to, being way more seasoned and experienced.

Now back to the “race riding” and the stewards. In deep stretch, when Johnny knew he had to help his horse somewhat, he did so, going to the left hand and encouraging Materiality to drift out on Upstart. It was a nice piece of race riding and whether he took it just a bit too far was a legit question for the stewards. When I saw it, I immediately knew the stewards would look at it and Jose Ortiz, Upstart’s rider would claim foul. I noted the irony, in that Upstart was disqualified in The Fountain of Youth, for doing nearly the same thing, to of all things, a Todd Pletcher trained horse, Itsaknockout, who was also in this race. Lesson learned, the only thing you know you will get from the current Gulfstream Park stewards is inconsistency, or nothing.

What would the stewards do now I thought, anxiously awaiting the inquiry and head on view. What we got was a fast official in the last race on the magnificent card. I love when they make the feature the last race and end the card with all stakes like Gulfstream did Saturday. I thought, however, the stewards stayed on their posts as well. I can only assume they left early to beat the traffic, as not only was no inquiry posted but Jose Ortiz was not even allowed to claim foul. They must have left as otherwise how could this not be at the least looked at? Rick Violette the trainer of Upstart and victim of the inconsistent and controversial disqualification of him in The Fountain of Youth had to be perplexed. The bettors who played Upstart got a royal shaft and racing got another black eye. Why even discuss if Materiality should have been taken down? Lesson learned, the only thing you know you will get from the current Gulfstream Park stewards is inconsistency, or nothing.

It’s no secret Kenneth Ramsey is a gambling man, and a lucky one at that. He went all in on his champion turf horse, Kitten’s Joy and helped turn him into one of the premier sires. He believed in him and wasn’t afraid to go all out. I was surprised Kenneth Ramsey did not take Ron Paolucci’s open challenge of a 250k head to head wager between their two horses, International Star and War Story in The Louisiana Derby. Back in the day, he might have jumped on it but apparently with some added years, comes a more relaxed approach. Ken was content with the winner’s share of the 750k purse, whatever he put through the windows and his guaranteed spot in The Kentucky Derby. Ron seems like the old Ken, going all out and all in on what he believes. He campaigned Ria Antonia in a most unorthodox fashion and continues doing things his way as opposed to the norm or what’s expected. Despite his confidence, War Story could do no better than 3rd to Ramsey’s International Star. Both horses are still improving, however, and their battles may not be over. Lesson learned, never stop believing, take the bet.

Regardless of how well-bred, or even how and when acquired, wintering in Dubai has not been the way to the winner’s circle on the first Saturday in May. This despite the careful planning and efforts of Sheik Mohammed, let alone his significant financial expenditures toward that effort. Once again we have a Derby runner coming from Dubai and bringing more hype than resume with him. Yes Mubtaahij, an Irish-bred Dubai colt, looked awfully athletic and impressive winning The UAE Derby, but who exactly was behind him? He looked on paper to have that field outclassed and ran like it. The band wagon filled up pretty quick following the race and he was immediately stamped a contender. His trainer announced Louisville was their next stop and Michael de Kock does merit his fair share of equine respect. With that, I’ll still need to see him in some top competition before I’ll label him a contender. Lesson learned, don’t believe the hype. You’ll get fooled once in a while but in the end resume will trump hype.

Lesson learned, don’t believe the hype. You’ll get fooled once in a while but in the end resume will trump hype.

The Dubai World Cup

Speaking of hype, most of it this past Saturday was directed towards The Dubai World Cup and California Chrome competing in it. The horse had not won on dirt since last May, and was afforded his share of liberal excuses by his supporters. This time he would be without excuse, in a field he should handle. His fans proclaimed him the winner before the race was run and some even predicted by open lengths. Needless to say, these are fans and not handicappers. As a handicapper, you had to recognize the horse has developed a pattern if not a habit of coming up short. In his favor was his wide draw in post 9, as he does not run well when inside or covered up, and the majority of his competition being turf horses racing on dirt.

California Chrome showed up and ran his race, as he often does. It was not good enough. The best he could manage was a well beaten second to Prince Bishop. Lea, his most serious competition on paper, had a troubled trip, continually turning his head and never really looking comfortable. Once Lea leveled off which was late in the race, he did get outside and was gaining at the end to get third. Chrome ran a decent race in the Dubai World Cup but far from the courageous second his fans and even some writers proclaimed. First, he was supposed to win. Second, the outside post and trip helped him as that is where he likes to run. Lastly, Seattle Slew was courageous and ultra-impressive in defeat to Exceller . This is what that looks like.

Slew ran his best race ever in defeat. In this year’s Dubai World Cup, Chrome just got beat. Another example of a gallant second would be Zenyatta’s to Blame. Everything went against her and still it came down to one more jump, against a more than worthy foe in Blame. You can see it here.

To cap off California Chrome’s trip to Dubai, his owners announced their self-proclaimed America’s horse would not be returning to America just yet. Instead he is off to Royal Ascot. His trainer Art Sherman, who has done such a fine job with the colt, apparently was left out of the decision process. Art will not be going with him. California Chrome will almost be guaranteed to be facing some of the best grass horses in the world at Ascot. Putting anything in the win column over there is unlikely as all he has beaten on grass is the three year old filly Lexie Lou. I can see why Art won’t lose sleep but you’d think he would have been treated better.

Lesson learned, California Chrome has a strong legion of fans who will criticize and blast anyone who doesn’t rave about him or points out any form of mediocrity. Do as I say and not as I do, leave it alone, it’s like talking politics or religion. In the end, his record speaks for itself.

It hasn’t taken long for Keeneland to get The Bluegrass back to relevance when it comes to Kentucky Derby preps. It was no secret they wanted to hoist the race back to prominence and host a Breeders’ Cup. They have accomplished both and we will see one of the Derby favorites compete there Saturday. Carpe Diem already has a win at Keeneland and started his three year old campaign perfectly with a nice win at 1 1/8th miles in The Tampa Bay Derby. Tampa’s deep and often tiring track will have him legged up nicely and he should be tough. Frammento has progressed nicely all winter and I have been following him. I think he can go forward again. Gorgeous Bird gets a rider switch off a disappointing race. It should be an exciting and relevant race.

Oaklawn wraps up their meet with The Festival of the South anchored by The Arkansas Derby. They put on a fine show in Hot Springs this year and things should only get better. Their purses are great, and they are recognizing the fans and horseman. They haven’t gotten nearly enough coverage and recognition.

High 5

Speaking of gallant in defeat, Sir Quisqueyano ran too good to lose bouncing back from his cross country trip to try Shared Belief in the Big Cap. Sir Q went to the top over the tiring and laboring Gulfstream strip and ran plain huge. He was collared by Peter Pan and Belmont runner up Commissioner turning from home but he didn’t quit. Despite being on the worst part of the track the 5 year old $62,500 Peter Walder claim showed a new dimension and fought back. He re rallied and tried the whole stretch to come back on the inside. Big High Five to Peter Walder for doing a great job with this horse.

Low 5

This has to go to the Dumb Ass guys for how they handled Art Sherman, who deserved way better. A certain TVG analyst also gets one for this brilliant statement prior to The Dubai World Cup, the only horse in the world who can beat Chrome is Shared Belief. I guess he never told Prince Bishop, or Tonalist, or Bayern, oh wait lesson learned. Do they actually pay those guys?

@jonathanstettin I for one can still actually feel the pall cast over the crowd and game that day. It was palpable. Kudos 2/2

William G. Gotimer (@WilliamGotimer) View testimonials

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