Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and Some Early Derby Thoughts by Jonathan Stettin

April 1, 2020

With racing all but at a halt, why not take a look at the current Kentucky Derby point leaders. As of now the Run for the Roses is scheduled for September 5th, 2020. Who knows what things will be like come fall, but let’s go on the side of hope and anticipate the race going off as currently scheduled.

Things will be different this year. The Covid-19 impact will make a mark on the race. The race may or may not be the first time these three-year olds go a mile and a quarter. At least some of them may get a chance to race that far prior to the Derby. The traditional prep races will still offer points, but will they be the true preps? All that remains to be seen, along with all the other intangibles.

In what I view as bizarre, Churchill Downs has not refunded the early advance wagers on the race, made when it was scheduled for the first Saturday in May. A bad bet to begin with, not refunding those wagers is a slap in the face to bettors. Sharp bettors factor the development, training and trainer, and timing of the race in an advance wager. To take their money, delay the race for months, not refund it, is just wrong and inexcusable.

Putting all the unknowns and peripheral issues aside, I will take a look at the current point leaders, noting some of the races to be run later may not be point races, and offer my thoughts on the current leaders.

Here we go:

1Tiz the Law122Top of the class at two, and also at three, at least for now, a lot to ask to hold that until September
2Wells Bayou104Lightly raced, speedy, will have to learn to rate and relax to have his best chance.
3Ete Indien74I’m not sold on him. I wanna see him run well outside of Florida, I think he could be a pretender.
4Modernist70Looks like a nice horse, but not a Kentucky Derby type horse.
5Authentic60The added time to the race works in his favor, he will develop further if he stays healthy. Dangerous.
6Mr. Monomoy52The extra time surely helps him, no way he runs if it was in May. If he comes back good, he can make noise.
7Nadal50Top dog or close to it in my opinion. Love how Baffert is bringing him along. Time helps him too.
8Mischevious Alex50Talented, but doesn’t have a Derby look to him in my opinion.
9Ny Traffic50A cut or two below the best of the three-year olds.
10King Guillermo50I like him, I think he is underrated. If he runs another good one on dirt he becomes a major player.
11Shivaree40Despite the big race last out, not at a mile and a quarter for me.
12Enforceable33I think he is overrated. We’ll see. So far big hat and not much cattle.
13Storm the Court32I thought his Breeders’ Cup was flukey, and it hasn’t been exactly flattered, not much this year yet. Pretender.
14Sole Volante30I like him better than his stablemate despite his having less points and hype.
15Major Fed30Another who looks a cut or two below.
16Thousand Words25You have to respect Bob, but this might be his fourth stringer this year.
17Silver Prospector21Another I think is good, just not Kentucky Derby good, that said he is capable of a big race if things go perfect.
18Excession20Not sold on him. Pretender.
19Honor A. P.20I like him a lot. he has the look and the time will help him tons. Dangerous for all the marbles.
20Candy Tycoon20Not at a mile and a quarter for me.
Kentucky Derby point leaders and comments

I would be remiss if I did not mention Charlatan. He is on the radar big time. He might be Bob’s best one, and the time delay may help him most of all.

There is plenty of time for these boys to sort themselves out. We’ll be watching and clocking all of them. Stay tuned!

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Jon Stettin

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