Derby hopeful Track Phantom breaks his maiden Nov. 25 at Churchill Downs (Jenny Doyle/Past The Wire)
By Laura Pugh
The last of the 50-point prep races has been completed, leaving only the Championship Round, starting March 23rd with the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks, left to complete before the first Saturday in May.
With this lull in preps, now is as good a time as any to inspect the horses currently occupying the top 20 slots, and evaluate their chances of staying there, as the final round of preps gets underway. Below are my top 10 Kentucky Derby prospects from the top 20 Point earners.
Track Phantom (55): Track Phantom ranks at the top of the current top 20 for me. He has a style suited to the Kentucky Derby, running on or very close to the lead in his best performances. One could say he hasn’t shown the ability to rate, but that was said of Epicenter a few years ago, another Steve Asmussen trainee, and he relaxed beautifully in his final prep, the Louisiana Derby.
Track Phantom doesn’t give me the crazy, need-the-lead, speedball vibe, but more of a horse who takes the lead because nobody else really wants it. His last race wasn’t as good as his first two starts in 2024, but I think he may not have relished the off going, and will revert to his winning ways with a dry track, should he get one in the Louisiana Derby.
Hades (20): The Holy Bull Stakes winner gets a lot of flack for a “slow” performance in that effort, however he gave me the impression of running to his competition. Domestic Product, who finished second to Hades in the Holy Bull, ran back to win the Tampa Bay Derby last week. For those that like him, that will flatter Hades. For me, it neither detracts or adds, as I’m drawing a line through that race. See why here.
Hades is light on experience, with only three races, but the progression of maiden, to allowance, to Stakes is one that I like. His connections aren’t willing to rush, and showed that when they decided to pass on the Fountain of Youth, and wait for the Florida Derby like originally planned.
He will definitely be tested in that spot, especially if Dornoch and the real Fierceness show up, but I like his progression and think that he’ll continue it into the Florida Derby.
Timberlake (66): The Brad Cox trainee entered 2024 with some authority, taking the Rebel Stakes by two lengths. The margin of victory, nor the company he beat, will impress many, but what I liked about this performance was that it showed a much more professional dimension. In the past, he’s lost races due to his headstrong, borderline rank behavior, and on this day, he stayed cool as a cucumber while racing in the second flight, between foes, early on.
Given the pace scenarios of the last two Kentucky Derbys, this type of style will serve him well, especially if he continues to stay professional in front of a rancorous Derby Day crowd. I also liked his closing splits in the Rebel. I believe they are among the best of the Derby preps, to date, over dirt courses. Considering that was his first start in 2024, that’s a pretty encouraging sign that he won’t be getting tired with added distance.
Encino (20): I am not normally a fan of synthetic specialists this early on, but this guy I like. He is bred for dirt, so I don’t think that will be an issue, and Churchill has a history of being very kind to synthetic specialists…Just ask Animal Kingdom.
He has as many starts as Hades, with only one defeat, a good second place in his first career outing. Since then, he’s been sterling, including the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes.
Like Timberlake, he found a good position in the second flight of horses, and despite being four wide for a good portion of the race, he still “swept” to the lead and won with enough to keep the measure of Epic Ride. His final 1/16th was run in close to 6 seconds flat.
Fierceness (36): Call me crazy if you will, but I think the son of City of Light will show a big improvement in the Florida Derby.
Fierceness has always been a bit finicky, not necessarily needing things his own way, but he does his best running when he’s able to avoid a lot of early jostling and get a good beginning. That did not happen in the Holy Bull, as the chart literally says “pinballed at the start.” Last time he had gate issues was the Champagne Stakes, and that day he finished 7th, so I would actually say his Holy Bull showed some growth.
His works leading up to the Holy Bull vs. now seem like the screws are getting tightened. The three he’s had since that start have been close to a second faster to all but one of the works he put out prior to the Holy Bull, which leads me to believe he was a bit short for that outing. Which would explain why he flattened out in deep stretch.
I think with a bit more fitness under his belt, and hopefully not as bumpy of a beginning, he could really make some noise in the Florida Derby.
Mystik Dan (21): This one gives me vibes that are similar to Fiercness. Very fast and very talented, likely won’t have issues with the distance, but he’s on tilt and ready to rumble or completely empty.
His maiden-breaking performance was the definition of “wow” as was his Southwest Stakes victory. Between the two victories were two very disappointing fifth-place finishes. However, it could be that Ken McPeek has finally figured this son of Into Mischief out.
In his defeats, he was never more than two lengths off the pace in the first half mile, and always within half a length after three quarters. In the Southwest Stakes he was five lengths behind at the quarter, 3 ¼ after the half, and still two lengths back after six furlongs. He proceeded to unleash a much more explosive stretch kick that decimated his rivals by eight lengths.
Could he be a mud-loving freak… sure. But that maiden victory was over a dry course, which has me thinking it was the change in style that led to his turnaround in the Southwest. We will see if my belief holds water in the Arkansas Derby.
Dornoch (60): In five career starts, Dornoch has won three and finished second in the other two…So, why isn’t he higher on my list. Two reasons.
First, I don’t like the fact that he waits on his opponents. A horse can have all the talent in the world, but one of these days, a Sierra Leone or better will catch him loafing on the front and roll right by Rosemont style.
Secondly, I really, and I mean really hate that all of his wins have come while wiring the field and his two defeats have come when he hasn’t. There are quite a few with as much or more speed than Dornoch that are in the running for the Kentucky Derby, and they won’t just hand him the lead on a silver platter. He’ll need to sit back and pounce, and while he still runs well doing that, he hasn’t shown that he can win.
At this point his aim is either the Florida Derby or the Blue Grass, and while I think he is among the most talented in the crop, I want to see him rate and WIN before I put him higher.
Stronghold (25): The son of Ghostzapper’s record looks very similar to Dornoch’s, only reversed. Five starts, two wins and three places…one of them coming at the “hooves” of Nysos. Nobody needs me to tell them who he is… right???
Stronghold got his big break in the Sunland Derby, away from Santa Anita. He prompted the pace for the majority of the race. He ran greenly, not cornering overly well, then getting out in the stretch, but once straight he started to pull away again. What I did like is how well he held up, despite being pressured a bit himself through a good portion of the early stages.
If they can work on his cornering, and keep him from getting out in the stretch, I think he can move up this list quite a lot.
Common Defense (27): Heading into the Rebel Stakes, I was 100% wrong about this horse. I said that I wasn’t sure why he was there, his pedigree indicated turf and I didn’t think his Southwest flop was a fluke. His connections said otherwise, said they thought he’d do better on dry track and it wasn’t just Derby fever talking.
In the Rebel, Common Defense ran big enough to give Timberlake a slight sweat, even though I do think Timberlake had his measure. However, moving forward, I do think this one deserves more credit than he’s been getting. He sat in the second flight, covered up and eating a lot of dirt. Then, cornered like he was on rails to slip through a small opening on the rail, which is when for a moment it looked like he would give Timberlake a run.
In the end, he just wasn’t good enough on that day, but how well he handled the traffic was extremely encouraging. That trip, and that move on the inside has led to Derby success, and in it might help lead to his own.
Catching Freedom (25): Third place in the Risen Star was where this colt finished in his last start. Some might be wondering why he is here and not Sierra Leone, and it’s simple. He was less than two lengths from him despite losing a lot more ground and dealing with some traffic in the final 1/16th of a mile.
This one has shown steady improvement in each one of his starts this year, and I think that he could improve enough to return to his winning form.
