Keeneland Saturday October 19, 2019 Full Card Equibase Analysis

October 19, 2019

Anthony Fontaine is back with the entire Keeneland Saturday card.

Race One: Selections 6-2-1-3 

#6 Thoughtless returns to the main track where this one has had success in the past. Will need a form reversal but the competition seems to be more favorable today.

#2 Foxy Mischief was compromised in last race by a slow start and returns at a competitive level. This runner is most successful when close to or on the lead so an alert break is vital today. #1 Miss O’Hara is searching for a level and surface where its talent can be seen. Maybe the dirt at this level will produce an improved effort. 

Race Two: Selections 7-6-9-4 

#7 Soul of Discretion comes off a poor performance at Churchill but was first race off a break freshening. Trainer does well with limited stock, and has shown an affinity for the surface in the past.

#6 Colonel Pike had major difficulty in last outing as form does not adequately describe just how much trouble this one experienced. With a clear trip should give a better performance. #9 Giant Boo Boo has struggled in last two outings but should find this bunch more manageable. This one is capable of much better. 

Race Three: Selections 2-5-7-4 

#2 Take Charge Angel displayed good speed and tired last out. Should get a similar trip today and may forget to stop.

#5 Ready to runaway has been dominating Minnesota breds and looks to bring good form to Keeneland against tougher. Speed is always dangerous and the rider fits this one like a glove. #7 Ultimate Mo ran well off a break and tired a bit late last out. Will be tighter and a danger for all the slots today. 

Race Four: Selections 3-10-7-1 

#3 Compliant has run two good races and would appear to be on the verge on a breakthrough victory. The connections are great and this one is strictly the one to beat in this event.

#10 Shore Magic is a well- bred runner that got a good educational run in debut at Delaware. That experience will prove valuable today as this one will make a late charge and pose the main danger to the favorite late. #7 Red Sorrel has had a few attempts to get the elusive maiden score and although this one will be competitive in the lane today I find it hard to take a short price on a runner that appears to settle for minor awards. 

Race Five: Selections 11-1-7-3 

#11 Numidian has been working well for debut for a trainer capable of having one ready. This is today’s surprise package.

#1 Chitto rushed up and tired on the lawn at Kentucky Downs on debut. Draws the rail once again however should benefit from initial experience and should finish better. #7 Churn N Burn debuts for trainer that does not rush them however has been known to blow up the exotics underneath. Training fair enough and has a chance to hit the board at a nice price. 

Race Six: Selections 10-7-6-5 

#10 Montmarte comes off brief break first time for Cox that does well in such scenarios. Looking for a giant effort.

#7 Out Cold ran gamely in debut and although gives away tons of experience in this spot have a feeling this one will make some noise in the lane today. #6 Smile Brian may have found the easiest spot in a while and running style should allow this one to stalk and pounce. 

Race Seven: Selections 9-10-8-7 

#9 Marvin has been working well for debut and may be overlooked at the window due to the presence of some high profile connections. Do not sell this runner short.

#10 Mr. Monomoy will take lots of action based on connections alone and the fact this runner has been training beautifully for debut. No value at the window but a must use in multi race exotics. #8 Wayne O did not have much success at the Spa in two races but the experience should help this one today and may forget to stop. 

Race Eight: Selections 3-6-12-11 

#3 Marouba gets much needed class relief and a course that this one should relish. The rider switch is good as Santana will ensure this one is prominent throughout the event.

Look out #6 Cascanueces had major trouble last out and still finished well, with a better trip will challenge for the win slot. #12 Kallio always brings the A game and this one looks formidable in this spot. Does not always get to the winners circle but can be counted on to fire each time. 

Race Nine The Grade 2 Ravens Run: Selections 8-10-11-1 

#8 First Star makes the journey from out west after two great races. Trainer is conservative so the fact this one ends up at Keeneland with up and coming young rider in tow makes me pay attention. Do not underestimate in this spot.

#10 Needs Supervision had an excellent prep off a long layoff last out at Laurel. Connections have always been high on this one and I feel given a good trip will outrun odds today. #11 Irish Mischief closed belatedly last out at Charles Town and will appreciate a return to a more conventional layout. Runner will have to get involved earlier than last time to have success today but the talent is there. 

Race Ten: Selections 3-5-4-9 

#3 Vice Versa broke maiden in a stylish fashion last out at Ellis Park and will look to build on that success. Trainer puts his main rider up for this assignment and runner looks poised for a solid effort today.

#5 Sayyaaf comes off a break and will look to get back on track after a subpar effort last out. Should compete with this field as numbers are comparable, and rider will have this one spotted for an optimal performance. #4 Fooch comes off a nice victory last out according to equibase.com at the Spa but for me it is telling the rider in tow last out opts for the rival to the outside. Still replacement is capable of getting all out of this charge but would demand value.

Contributing Authors

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Anthony Fontaine

An avid horse player for more than 30 originally from the Virgin Islands Tony brings a unique perspective to handicapping.  Using speed figures, keen observation, ...

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