Keeneland Race Course, Races 2 & 3 Saturday, October 5, 2024
For information on Past The Wire’s annual Breeders’ Cup Seminar, the very best in the game CLICK HERE
By The 2YO EdgeMan
KEE2:100524 – One Mile on the Turf. A full field of 16 dudes are entered, 12 will start – all are colts.
#2 – States Rights (5/2) – This colt, by Constitution (ALL = 14.6%; Turf = 9.9%) will be making his third start today for trainer Cherie DeVaux (1/19, 5.3%). His dam was three-for-13 with only $26,000 earned and she’s by Pioneerof The Nile (BM = 11.3%) – this is her first foal. He sold as a weanling back in the fall of 2022 for $225K (1/2) and then was pinhooked back as a yearling for $350K (18/66). He’s competed twice in the afternoon – his first race on the dirt at CD was not impressive, but he did run back at Saratoga on their lawn and despite a slow start stumbling out of the gate, he ran big to finish runner-up to Simulate over the mile and 1/16th distance. Luis Saez will guide him for the third time.
#4 – Battle Drum (10/1) – This French-Bred colt comes by way of the stallion Siyouni and an unraced French mare by Planteur. She’s tossed two other foals of racing age, but neither show any races. He was well-liked in the sales overseas having sold originally as a yearling for $184,794 (27/44) and then wheeled back as a 2YO for $387,768 (1/4) – which was 2 ½ times higher than the second-highest juvenile from his dad’s crop. Conditioner Todd Pletcher sends him out for his second competitive event after making a reasonable debut on the grass at Saratoga when he moved up somewhat throughout to end in fifth, only two lengths shy over 8 ½ furlongs. Johnny V. will be his pilot.
#5 – Culture War (6/1) – Robert Medina’s barn (M = 0/8) sends out this colt by Freshman sire, War of Will (8 winners from 49 starters). His damsire is Arch (BM = 11.4%) and mom was a two-time winner from 18 starts, pulling down $192K with a third-place finish in a G3 event. She’s tossed one other foal of racing age and that one has won north of $100K. Today’s competitor went through the auction ring last year as a yearling, but bidding ended before reaching his reserve of $145K. He’s made one previous start, that one coming over a mile on the lawn at Kentucky Downs. On that day he laid off the pace and made a wide move into the lane to end third, beaten less than five lengths. Medina then shipped him to Lexington for three spins at The Thoroughbred Training Center. Tyler gets the return engagement to ride.
#9 – Dream Scheme (4/1) – St. Elias Stable and Starlight Racing went to $300K (on this colt by Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%; Turf = 14.3%) last year when he was a yearling (27/43). His unraced mom is out of Scat Daddy (BM = 13.2%) and she’s thrown one other undistinguished foal of racing age. Brendan Walsh (M = 6/42, 14.3%) will cinch to girth on this fella who made an impressive debut on the turf at Horseshoe Indiana early last month. He settled next to last before making a move on the turn to get within a length of the lead by the head of the lane and finished a mere ¼ length short as the runner-up. Since that race, he received two spins under the Twin Spires at CD and Luan Machado will be in the saddle again.
Final Analysis – #1 is formidable and there is lots to like about the #9 horse. War of Will’s babies have performed awfully well on the grass, so #5 makes some sense, too, but my pick is #4 Battle Drum. Pletcher does quite well at this meet and today’s surface is a sure thing for this guy. The ML odds of 10/1 are just too juicy to pass up, so lets give him a roll.
KEE3:100524 – Seven Furlongs on the Dirt. Nine fillies will square off with four of them making their debut, one will be making her second start, three have been out twice, and one has already done the racing thing three times.
#2 – Planiloquent (4/1) – Belladonna Racing and partners send out this debutant by Street Sense which they purchased as a yearling for $260K (7/42). Mama was two-for-seven on the track, including a win on her first try at age two, and brought home 136K in purse money – she’s by Daaher (BM = 5/31, 16.1%). Cherie DeVaux will slip that saddle on this filly and she’s been prepping at Ellis for her first race with eight morning spins (30 furlongs). Two back, on 9/17/24, she sped four furlongs in 47.8 seconds handily from the gate (3/32). Jose gets the opportunity to be her guide.
#4 – Impulse Buy (5/2) – Rudolphe Brisset (M = 6/22, 27.3%; Second (= 18.1%; Non-FTS = 20.6%). Her dam, by Pioneerof The Nile (BM = 11.3%) was victorious in three of her nine starts, including a win in her first race and a score at the G2 level. She banked $396K and has thrown six foals of racing age – two that earned $100K+ and won on debut. The final bid price for this gal last year was $200K, as a yearling. This filly has been out one time previously – on 8/11/24 at Ellis Park, she stalked from about a length back, made a bid in the lane and finished runner up, 2 ¼ lengths shy. Since that race, she has put in three morning moves at Keeneland, her last two at 5/8th of a mile. On 9/6/24, the stop watch stopped at 59.4 (4/6). Tyler will climb aboard for the second time.
#5 – Complex Secret (3/1) – First-Crop sire, Complexity (16 winners from 40 starters) is pops to this filly who’s damsire is Discreet Cat (BM = 10.3%). Mom was three-for-eight, won at first asking and also in a stakes race, both at age two, earned $138K, and has had five other foals of racing age, but none have been overly successful yet. The hammer fell at $75,000 on this gal when she was a yearling (31/84). She’s been out twice before for trainer Kenny McPeek (M = 5/59, 8.5%) – in her first run, she showed little. However, last out at CD on the dirt, she stayed close to the lead and finished third over the six furlongs. Since that effort, she’s put in one speedy half-mile work at Churchill – 47.4 seconds (1/4). Brian Hernandez, Jr. gets the call for the third time.
Final Analysis – This relatively short field is not light on quality. My pick is #4 Impulse Buy. Brisset has put up excellent numbers at KEE in the fall and he showed a lot in his first race and should improve further in this one. I like the fact that he’s worked 14 furlongs since his last race and the one on 9/6/24 was strong. Her workmate went on to win, albeit at the MCL level. Tyler will be a fine, new addition, dad produces precocious runners and mom checks all the boxes.
Keeneland has three more of our races scheduled for Sunday, but I’ll unfortunately not be able to complete an article for them. I’ll be back with ya next week, tho! Take care – thank you! I appreciate you all very much.
