Let’s take on this excellent Churchill Downs Stephen Foster Evening Card ; feeling very confident !
Race#1
#5 Play the Break – freshened up a bit but working like a beast ; at her lowest level but feel Ian Wilkes horse is much the best here , if gets honest pace will run them down .
#7 Tizthesound – hasn’t showed much over this Churchill strip but feel she gets good trip sitting just off the pace and takes over top of the stretch .
#6 I. Damian – Tampa invader is cheap but has taken to the turf nicely 2 for 3 on the lawn ; although cheaper type bred strongly for turf and has showed it ; step up in class but don’t need be much better .
#2 Audrey’s Double – deep closer that finds her easiest turf spot to date .
Race#2
#1 Hardly Home – scary huge drop for 1st dirt try , that being said sharps drills in am makes me feel he is sound and if he handles dirt should make this one a laugher late .
#5 High Multiple – fits well if top one doesn’t take to dirt .
#6 Silver Wraith – has shown enough speed on dirt to have a nice lead here ; hasn’t shown much staying power but vs. these types might take them a long way .
Race#3
#1 Mesoma – tough to seperate a few of these but I landed on this one who crushed 3 others in last here at Churchill ; likes the course and projects to sit just behind the horse to his outside who will be begging to be passed , takes lead and might scoot away from these .
#4 Cerro – class edge and versatile type is the one to beat .
#3 Toasting Master – 5 starts here 4 wins 1 second , the good ; hasn’t raced since November here when he was vanned off after a win , available for 50k here , the bad . Even if fit is risky play at low odds at this distance .
Race#4
#9 Kismet Heels – Casse / Leparoux 28% here and this one gets back on the turf where he belongs imo. Only a maiden breaking win on turf still feel he is the class of this field .
#5 Ingadore – legit excuse in last while making his initial turf try and finished respectable . Sneaky trainer is 26% this year.
#6 Sixty Five(Fr) – claimed last time and now back up in Alowance ranks ; fits and looks like he fires well on this track with 2 starts that weren’t but could of been wins right there at wire .
#7 Mongol G. – worth a mention as this horse might pop a huge lead , can he hold ?
Race#5 Matt Winn G3
#2 McCraken – will be released today for sure but maybe 1/5 odds , still can’t try to beat him here back at his favorite track. No excuses here as distance seems ideal and pace is fair .
#1 Excitations – might give the top choice a scare at top of the lane , or might not . Do see some talent here and willing to excuse his last but still think the distance might be a little too far .
#6 Society Beau – Ok it’s a big if , but IF all theses sprint types go and maybe McCraken goes or makes a premature move this one could close with a rush as I believe this one has some talent and a future . Will make a run , might not be good enough here but down the road this one will pop .
Race#6 The Wise Dan G2
#7 Pleuven – this gelding is real sharp right now , likes the course , and is a versatile type . Lanerie / Simms high % while limited sample size but still the one to beat here for sure .
#5 Kasaqui – 7 yr. old has been keeping top company and is an honest type . Should be right there again today . Only knock is Albarado landing on the horse to his outside , was it his choice ? .
#2 Bondurant and #6 Conquest Panthera both rate a chance here as well .
Race#7 Fleur De Lis Handicap G2
Upset alert
#2 Walkabout – feeling upset here and I understand she hasn’t beat much in her last 2 narrow wins but think race might set up for her late charge . Filly might be getting good at the right time . (Pick 6 King Jonathan Stettin likes her too, always a positive sign!)
#1 Forever Unbridled – classy mare always fires . When last seen in Breeders Cup ran a big one just behind Beholder and Songbird . Seems to have no problem with layoffs but if these types gonna beat her today is there chance .
#5 Big World – sits just off #7 Apologynotaccepted and takes over but still think the race is a little to long for her even if razor sharp like she is right now .
Race#8 The Stephen Foster Grade 1
#3 Gun Runner – if not for the freak Arrogate would of won the Dubai Cup easy ; argueably second best dirt horse in world ; I see this one laying 3rd just off Bird Song and Stanford and pouncing when ready . Don’t see much not to like only thing it’s his first race since being in said desert .
#4 Honorable Duty – everyone’s “wise guy” horse here . Javy jumps on and horse has been super sharp since changing to being a closer , gets pace to run at ; not much not to like here just not sure he is this good .
#2 Breaking Lucky – if horses race pattern continues he is set to fire a good one . Seems like he doesn’t care for an off track as part of the excuse in last . Work tab shows me this one is sharp right now , could run a big one .
Race#9
#10 Fizzy Friday – 1st try stateside and on turf was a solid second to the talented Sonic Boom ; any improvement which I find likely makes this one tough here .
#12 Chubby Star – tried the boys in last at Pimilico on Preakness day and ran second from tough post to budding star “Yoshida” . No favors today again with post but figures the one to beat .
#4 Proctors Ledge – closer should relish the distance here , you will have to know him in deep stretch .
Race#10
#2 What a Star – been bet in all 3 starts failed last time as favorite with a slight excuse . Is the one to beat here with the experience and race set up . No more excuses .
#10 Belletta – gonna excuse last in slop as might of needed that race as well. Took some action is his debut down at Tampa while breaking slow and making a big run before a slight fade . Don’t like Borel at this point but he will be hungry and pumping this one home .
#9 Golden Amber – beatin fave in his first 2 tries but willing to give him one more chance as now gains Saez and Saez/Cox 31% . Sits good trip right off pacesetters.
#12 Socata – worth a mention , filly has to deal with layoff , adds blinkers and fits closing here as I project a good pace up front , if ready beware .
Race#11
#9 Tapsolute – could u guess who the sire is ? Besides the name , Asmussen trains that’s the last hint lol . Light freshening for this , graduation looming.
#6 Portal – made a strong run in his last try for Wilkes / Hernandez . Race came back quick , fits here if runs back to that .
# 3 Leading Cause – horse has thrived with the last 2 stretch outs , fits here and should be fit while others might not be finishing late . Side note Gilligan only wins when Simms uses him , will be trying hard .
#7 Harlans Vador and #11 Union Salute will be used to make sure I don’t get knocked out of my pick 4
