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We change venues and it’s time to shine : Jimmy W attacks the first Saturday Saratoga Card
#2 Marshall Plan – colt holds a significant speed and also a conditioning edge to most of these and gets a slight cut back to distance that should do the trick .
#5 Adulation – 3 starts are solid vs some tough types . Started his career here at Toga where he ran huge on a sloppy track is a bonus . The negative is the trainer is super low % with this type of layoff .
#1 Mr. Crow – Pletcher colt got no attention in opener @ 11-1 while losing by a neck as much the best ( rough start and trip ) to Casse 8/5 firster who had clean journey. Today under 3-1 .
# 6 Tipsy Kitten – while it might of took longer then they wanted , I think the light finally turned on for this one ; as he won last 2 and really liked the strong move in his last . Most recent bullet also plays to the theory that this one has turned the corner . Leparoux/Maker/Ramsey like to win together as do I , lol .
#1 Daddy’s Home – while this one will be overbet and well lower than he should be there ain’t much to beat in this spot . Javy / Chad and finished even 8th but only lost by 5 lengths to much better after winning initial try down at Gulf .
#5 Prize Fight – Maker/Ortiz and dropped in for tag after some excuses and some in over his head spots . The good news is he fits well with these , hood comes off and will probably be half the 12/1 m/l .
Worth a mention #10 The Great Samarai – statebred maiden claimer 1st x vs classier winners ???? But do see some things to like worthy of a longshot look .
#5 Untamed Domain – Motion likes Laurel but 5.5f try looks like it was a workout to me while his unveiling in MSW. I have a soft spot of Animal Kingdom who this one is out of and believe the stretchout , Lasix, and the use of Jose Ortiz usually means business for Motion .
#7 Another – Mott/Alvarado have been brutal together but have done good work together on turf in a not to distant past . Sire and trainer are extremely poor % with first out runners . If you are gonna use you have to believe in Mott and the breeding and a trend change here , I am willing to take a shot .
#2 Royal Holiday – Ward entry , Johnny V on both so only if this one stays in , like some things , watch the tote .
#1A – Johnny Action – Plethcher / Javy/ Pompa Jr. have to respect but again the board should help .
#2 Rockport Kat – wide open race here but this one ran some strong races while on the west coast in 2015/16 . Might of had some issues since then but dropping a tad again and might be set for best effort . Diodoro/Arroya 27% combo .
#4 Shuffle Up – Servis drops this one to level for a win and will be solid fave but but but , won’t have lead here and will have to rate behind a few here , Franco knows this one well and has sat off the pace in the past but feel it’s vulnerable fave.
#7 Bayard – wish it was 6 panels because this one is getting huge pace and class relief and drop . Can’t argue with anyone thinking he can wire these .
#4 Sporting Chance – the only horse with any experience and the only horse we know for sure will show speed . While I advise to watch the board with others , have to believe this one has an edge in this spot .
#3 Tap Daddy – Asmussen/Geroux Scat Daddy colt with steady tab that shows me some talent .
#8 Machismo – Pletcher /Johnny V 500k More than Ready colt is one to watch the board on .
#4 Fleet Irish – Best Bet alert !!!! , simple for me here as there is plenty of pace on paper , 7f fits perfect and he is in top form . Rolling late .
#9 Born for a Storm – Away since October but is a major threat for Javy/Chad Brown . Seems to like it here at Toga which is a huge plus.
#12 Build to Suit – should be sitting just off the pace from comfy outpost for Chad / Irad.
Worth a look #5 Terry O Geri- turf to dirt and colt is 1-1 on fast track . Can close here .Race #7#12 High Hours (Brz) – Argueably the second best turf sprinter in South America ; I have to believe that makes him very tough in this group . Has a race stateside in an off the turf synthetic sprint at Arlington which to me looked more than useful . I watched a few replays of his races in Brazil and looks like a very serious runner ; 10 starts never worse than second .#6 End Play – Sasz/Bush like to win @ Toga and this one can sit close which makes him a force here .#7 Evacuation – Ward/Johnny V take over this Aussie import who has been away since October and makes first start stateside with Lasix.#9 Partly Mocha – might have to much to do late.Race #8#1 Volatility Index – I went to school on opening day at the Spa and what I learned on the turf is for now I think it might be best to like a filly like this who can go to the lead or sit very close to the pace . Lightly raced type for Chad/Javy , facing a little better here but no worries runs big .#2 Penjade – might of needed last and still grinded out a win . Chad/Irad and expecting a good 2017 from this filly .#7 Browse – Last start was 1st try on the turf when showing some late life . Trust these connections and expect this one to be sharper here , X factor .Race #9 The Sanford Grade 3#3 Bal Harbour – very professional down at Gulf closing strongly in both efforts ; while I don’t love that Pletcher left this one down at Gulf , he is here now at Toga and in The Sanford . If he can sit and make same move will be tough again stepping up .#4 Free Drop Billy – big impressive win first out at Churchill Downs . Should be more than enough pace here for this one to fire down the lane if good enough .#6 Baffin – will have to be real good one to last a projected pace duel but looks like could be any kind . (Jonathan Stettin, The Pick 6 King says he’s good, fast, and that pulls weight)Race # 10 The Diana Grade 1#2 Antonoe – while at first glance might seem pace compromised here , she came home like a rocket in The Just a Game stakes most recently . Filly seems push button and Javy know when to go .#6 Dickinson – this made has proven to be quite a turfer , runs hard every time and seems to have a pace edge here .#3 Lady Eli – sentimental fan fave but maybe not deserving favorite here . While Irad is very good and he’s been on her every race feel he might get out moved in this one and while not a popular statement even with strong form seems to have lost a step .Race #11#9 Blarp – although dropped vs similar in last try had some excuses there , feel he is classier than these and in spot to win here .#2 Aire Bueno and #8 Souperfast both sit close enough to pace to take over turning for home and try to hold .Good Luck !!!! Think we got them today ! Jimmy W
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