Obliteration wins the Renaissance Stakes on Saturday, Coady Media
James Gazzale
Early speed matters at Oaklawn Park. Anyone who plays the Hot Springs oval regularly knows that, but on Saturday, January 3, the numbers made it impossible to ignore.
Using Pace Points, a new data product designed to rank each horse’s early and late pace relative to the field, we identified five of the 11 winners as horses ranked first or second in early pace. That’s nearly half the card, and it came on a day when Oaklawn’s natural tendency to favor forwardly placed runners was fully on display.
Pace Points is not a picks sheet. It’s a framework. The goal is to help handicappers better visualize how a race is likely to unfold before the gates open, especially in terms of who is going to be on or near the lead, applying pressure, or controlling the tempo.
Saturday at Oaklawn provided a textbook example of how that can translate into better wagering decisions.
Take Race 1, where NZ Holly was ranked second in early pace despite having only one prior career start — a race where nothing in her running line suggested early speed. She broke sharply, cleared the field, and never looked back. Without Pace Points, there was little in the past performances to indicate she would be that aggressive early. With Pace Points, the intent was clear.
That theme repeated itself later in the card.
In Race 5, a maiden event loaded with lightly raced runners and unknowns, Reclamation was identified as one of the top early pace horses. She broke alertly, secured position, and proved extremely difficult to reel in. In races like these, where traditional data is limited, having a tool that helps isolate likely pace scenarios can be a significant edge.
This is where Pace Points works best: in tandem with your normal handicapping process, not as a replacement for it. Oaklawn’s track bias stats already tell us that speed is dangerous, particularly at sprint distances. Pace Points helps narrow the focus to which horses are most likely to capitalize on that bias.
For those who want to see these Pace Points examples explained visually, with replays and real-time race flow, watch the latest episode of Sunday Morning Coffee on Past The Wire TV. You can watch it on YouTube here.
To learn how Pace Points ranks early and late pace relative to each field, visit the Pace Points page here.
By the end of the day, five winners, including several horses that were not obvious on paper, came from the top two early pace rankings.
- Race 1: NZ Holly ($10.60)
- 1st Fraction Rank: 2
- Race 2: Azteca Warrior ($28.00)
- 1st Fraction Rank: 1
- Race 4: Obliteration ($3.40)
- 1st Fraction Rank: 2
- Race 5: Reclamation ($15.00)
- 1st Fraction Rank: 1
- Race 7: Nicholai ($3.80)
- 1st Fraction Rank: 1
That doesn’t mean Pace Points will predict every winner. No product can. But it does mean it consistently helps answer one of the most important handicapping questions: Who is going to be where when it matters most?
See how Pace Points can help you visualize race flow before you bet.
At a track like Oaklawn, where being forwardly placed is often half the battle, understanding early pace is essential. Saturday’s results showed just how powerful that understanding can be when paired with the right data.
Pace Points are available every racing weekend at PastTheWire.com.
The takeaway is simple: when you can better anticipate the shape of a race, you can structure smarter tickets, avoid bad favorites, and put yourself in position to win more often, exactly what Pace Points is designed to do.
