Ellis Park, Race 5 – Sunday, July 7, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
ELP5:070624 – One mile on the Turf. 16 are entered; 12 will start – Ten colts and two geldings. The number of FTSers = four; One start = three; Two starts = four; Four starts = one.
#4 – Thuboot (8/1) – This Shadwell Farm homebred is a son of Nyquist (ALL = 18.3%; Turf = 12.1%) and was thrown by a winless Bernardini mare Haafila (from four starts) that has produced one other foal. Brendan Walsh (M = 8.5%) has been training this colt for his debut outing by sending him out for a half dozen morning drills (20 furlongs) and they’ve been solid, but not eye-popping. Declan Cannon will steer him today.
#5 – Homer’s Odyssey (5/1) – Another firster, this colt is sired by Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; Turf = 13.3%). His dam Conquest Dynasty, by Court Vision, was a fine race mare having won five of the 31 starts that she made bringing home nearly $1/4 million in purse money. In the breeding shed, she has only thrown one other, but that one is winless in ten tries. The auction hammer fell on this guy last year at $200K (33/62) and he’s trained by Steve Asmussen (M = 10.1%). Steve has only asked him for five works, but four have covered a half mile and one was 5/8th. His best was probably three back on 6/18/24 when he started from the gate and clipped off 4f in 48 seconds flat (11/65). Cristian Torres is his rider.
#6 – Bright Skittle (5/2 ML fav) – This colt by Twirling Candy (ALL = 18.5%; Turf = 16.5%) is by Shackleford mare Harbor Lights who was a first-out winner in August of her freshman year right here at Ellis Park. She went on to score only one more time in 11 more starts banking a total of $95,000. She has a 3YO by Omaha Beach, but that one has not yet hit the race track. Today’s runner sold for $142K as a yearling (25/70) and he will be competing at his third track in his young career (all on the grass). He’s finished in third place within two lengths of the winner in both efforts and he’s been moving well late. Trainer Rusty Arnold (M = 8.2%) has worked in four half mile breezes since his last race on 5/11/24. Corie Lanerie will be his third jockey.
#7 – Brereton’s Baytown (8/1) – The name tells you that this colt is owned by Paul McEntee’s Baytown Partnerships (along with Resolute Racing). He, of course, is conditioned by McEntee (M = 1/10, 10.0%) and comes by way of an Upstart (ALL = 14.7%; Turf = 3.4%) / Birdstone cross. Mama Kika never made it to the track, but she’s thrown three others, one gelding has banked just north of $1/4 million by going four for 21 (including one score with a 102 EBSF). As Paul often does, he picked this fella up from the yearling sales for the value price of $17,000 (20/26). This guy has competed twice in the afternoon, the first coming in a stakes race at Saratoga during their Belmont Festival when he was knocked around at the start but finished strong. In his second race at CD, he again started slow, moved well on the turn, but finished fourth beaten only by two lengths. Joseph Bealmear has been in the saddle for all of his runs.
#8 – Strummin (6/1) – Trainer John A. Hancock (M = 0/32) will tighten the girth for the fifth time on this colt by Flameaway (ALL = 11/89, 12.4%; Turf = 5/35, 14.3%). He’s finished as the runner-up three times and third once, all on the dirt, including a placing behind West Memorial in a stakes race at CD two races back. Mom Queen of the Party was 7/44 with $119K in earnings and she’s produced an unraced 3YO. This guy has already earned nearly eight times the price that it cost to purchase him – $12,000 – in January 2023 when he was a ‘short yearling’ (37/51). John has fit in two 5f works here at ELP since his last run and will be piloted for the fifth time today by Victor Lebron.
Final Analysis – The #6 has two previous runs over the lawn, but I’ve been quite impressed with the pair of dirt starts from my pick #7 Brereton’s Baytown. I think he may enjoy the added distance and his running style seems to align with the lawn (even though his siblings have not excelled on it as babies) as he clearly likes to settle and then make a big run. Let’s give him a shot at ML odds of 8/1.
Hard to believe, but Saratoga opens on Thursday – yes!! I’ll continue to also cover Ellis when they have an interesting juvenile event; however, as always, my main focus will be in upstate NY at the Spa. Thank you for all of your support, it doesn’t not go unnoticed and is greatly appreciated, my Stalwart Edgies.
