In a game that involves animals that check in just over a thousand pounds, running around a track being controlled by riders that check in slightly over a hundred pounds, it stands to reason there will be a lot of subjectivity and intangibles. At face value you wouldn’t appear off base to opine the whole thing is haphazard and strictly a matter of chance. That’s part of what is great about the Sport of Kings, there is an awful lot of history that proves it isn’t.
Anyone who knows me or reads my column knows I am not much for hype. When horses like Verrazano, Uncle Mo, Hansen, and even Shared Belief started receiving tons of early Kentucky Derby hype I was one of the first to point out it was just hype and none were going to get the roses if they were even in the gate. Subsequently I have become a fan of Shared Belief and he may have been one to prove me wrong had he made the gate but he didn’t.
There is nothing wrong with spotting talent early, and before the masses recognize it. It is fun and rewarding on many levels including financially. Trainers do it, bloodstock agents do it, and jockey agents even do it. Bettors do it also, sometimes for advance wagers at huge odds and sometimes just to display and reinforce their knowledge. There are people in the game who make handsome livings finding private purchases for stables. They have an eye for talent, and they have to know the difference between talent and hype.
Our game is fast to hype horses and throw around words like freak and monster, a term I reserve for, well, freaks and monsters who do not come along as often as the terms are used. They do come however and when we get to watch one it’s special. We are so fast to declare horses “the next great one” as we long to see another Secretariat or Seattle Slew or someone take down the elusive Triple Crown.
In a conversation on social media the other night, I found myself on the other side of a discussion than I normally am. I was on the hype side. There was a good reason for that however, like with many other aspects of the Sport of Kings, some who play don’t understand the game. There is a difference, and a significant one at that between hype and recognizing talent and a good horse early on.
Last March when I started telling people Tonalist was the horse to beat in The Belmont Stakes, I took my fair share of ridicule. It was much like when I pretty much guaranteed Verrazano, Hansel and Uncle Mo would not win the Kentucky Derby. People tend to take these things personal but it is really all business to me.
It was early November and I was searching for a pick 6 single on the Santa Anita card which offered a healthy carryover. The sequence was tough and at first look nobody really jumped out at me. The first leg was a maiden special weight race that was loaded with first time starters. One of them caught my eye and had the look of a first out winner. I decided he would be my single which in the end was no great discovery as he went to the post heavily favored, a sign I took positively in that someone besides me thought he could run. He broke slow and between horses and I thought for a second this might be over early. It wasn’t, he dragged his jockey to the lead splitting horses and drew off easily to win by daylight trouncing the field. The win created a buzz and the horse was Dortmund.
Dortmund: A Big Horse with Potential
Off a win like that and being trained by Bob Baffert this large and lanky horse at nearly 17 hands figured to get his share of hype. The hype didn’t interest me but the horse did. I immediately thought he was the best of the two year olds I had seen this year and the one with the most potential. What is important here is what was different about this first out impressive winner than say an Uncle Mo or a Verrazano? Why would I think he is a legit prospect for the Derby and classics and not the others?
This is where we separate the men from the boys so to speak. Remember this is all business, not personal. Dortmund is obviously a work in progress. He was green and won despite it, authoritatively I might add. He wasn’t speed crazy and burning them up early, you know, too fast too soon. He had the size and range to go a distance and a frame he would have to grow into. He was obviously not in peak form but dominated anyway. This makes him a legit classic prospect as opposed to a hyped horse. That’s not to say he isn’t and won’t get his fair share of hype, he is and will, but he is also legit.
His trainer has won the big one before and knows how to get there. I thought his second start at a flat mile over Churchill Downs was a brilliant spot. They didn’t run him in the stake around two turns later on the card, no they went conservative and got him a win and nice feel for the track which he obviously liked. Baffert, usually aggressive went this route which told me he really liked this horse and was not going to rush him. Dortmund was once again not speed crazy but drew off powerfully. He improved from his first start, crucial for a sign of development to come. This isn’t hype, it’s observation.
Dortmund went two turns for the first time in the Futurity now run at Los Alamitos. He sat wide and off the pace in what turned out to be an educational and beneficial run. He had to really dig down for the win but in doing so showed he has some heart to go with his raw talent. That is something the other mentioned earlier never showed. They were speed crazy and totally cranked with no upside. The opposite of Dortmund. Although he is not speed crazy, he is improving every start and got a track record to go with his Futurity victory. That’s the difference and that’s the distinction they didn’t see the other night when I was accused of hyping or buying into hype.
Dortmund is by Big Brown, a very talented horse and overachiever pedigree wise. He’s out of a Tale of the Cat mare which would indicate some distance concerns but I’m not too worried about that. With the change away from classic and distance breeding we’ve seen in the industry, it’s not as difficult to outrun ones pedigree. Further if you go back a bit you will see Dortmund’s third dam is Lakeville Miss, a Coaching Club American Oaks winner when it was run at a mile and a half. She also foaled Mogambo, a Wood Memorial winner who could get a distance of ground.
Now we all know, and it goes without saying the Kentucky Derby is a long way off, and nobody could declare the winner now. That’s tough enough on race day. That doesn’t mean if you spot a legit contender, and point it out you are on any hype band wagon. I don’t think any true student of the game needs to be told how much can happen between now and the first Saturday in May.
While all that glitters isn’t gold Dortmund is legit, and continuing to develop. That isn’t hype, it’s fact, and don’t be surprised if he’s the one wearing a blanket of roses come spring.
If you haven’t gotten a chance to listen to It’s Post Time with JJ Graci on wdbfradio.com you should try. It is an informative racing show with a lot of great guests. JJ is very knowledgeable and makes it fun. I’m on somewhat regularly and really enjoy it. We are broadcasting live from Gulfstream during the championship meet.
Santa Anita opens this week, and Oaklawn Park soon thereafter. Two great meets with high expectations this year. I’m looking forward to both of them. Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita make for quite the schedule.
High 5
The high five goes to Gulfstream Park for building stalls on a rush basis to house the horses Churchill Downs is evicting, in favor of building some kind of truck stop in the old stable area of Calder. I for one am going to miss Calder. I spent many a memorable day there with “Get Em Edgar” not being the least of them.
Low 5
Churchill Downs takes this for the Calder move. I think sometimes Churchill forgets they are in the racing business for more than two days a year. How is evicting horses during a great meet with full fields good for the game? I realize it’s good for the Churchill P and L statement short term but they are in the racing business long term. I’m not sure they know that anymore. They could be such an instrumental partner if they chose to be.o
