Dornoch after his gritty Haskell (G1) victory (Ryan Denver/EQUI-PHOTO)
Travers Result Likely Won’t Change That
By Laura Pugh
It may have taken until mid-July, but the 3-year-old male division finally has a clear leader, and his name is Dornoch.
Firstly, I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if his connections didn’t try to get cute by trying to get the imposing son of Good Magic to rate. So far, when he’s been allowed to do his own thing, either strongly encouraging the pace or setting it, he’s unbeaten. Not saying he would have won the Kentucky Derby, because that trip from that post was unavoidable, but given his ability to set fast splits and stay, I think it’s probable that he wins the Blue Grass Stakes if he’s allowed to run at his preferred pace.
Alas, that did not happen, and Dornoch currently sports a record that boasts two Grade 1 wins plus a Grade 2. No other horse in the division has that on their resume. Not only that, but he has now beaten the Derby winner, the Preakness winner, and the Derby runner-up, who is also the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star winner.
Some might say that the Travers Stakes is the race that will “crown” the division leader, but I would disagree. At this stage, Dornoch has a clear advantage in the division. A win from any of those who were among the top of the division this spring would put them on an equal level to Dornoch, but it wouldn’t be enough to surpass him. A win from some of the new faces like Batten Down, Parenting, or Unmatched Wisdom would be a good addition to their records, but they still would need to get a second or third win over him, and or older males to wrest the title.
Do I see this happening? No.
I was not Dornoch’s biggest fan this year. I wasn’t sure what to make of the Fountain of Youth, after all of the scratches, and then he was a disappointing fourth in the Blue Grass. I wasn’t sure if he could rate like I thought he might need to, and in the Blue Grass, he showed that he couldn’t. However, in the Belmont Stakes, Dornoch proved that he didn’t need to rate.
Dornoch reminds this writer quite a bit of Game on Dude in the sense that he’s able to set or prompt testing opening splits and still keep on rolling, so long as the rider allows him to do his own thing. Game on Dude also loved stretch duels, almost to the point of relishing them, similar to Dornoch. The main difference between Game on Dude and Dornoch is that the latter seems to actually wait on opponents as he turns for home, then re-engages, doing just enough to come out on top.
The style leaves him a bit vulnerable, or at least you would think so. If a horse were to sweep by far enough to his outside, it would be possible to take Doronoch by surprise. The problem with that is two very talented horses have already attempted that. Sierra Leone in the Remsen and Mindframe in the Belmont and Haskell. Both horses, each time came up with all the momentum and looked like they would run right by Dornoch. Each time, Dornoch saw them and turned on the afterburners, even after being passed.
In that case, if he’s so headstrong, a suicidal pace should soften him up…but it doesn’t. Just look at the Belmont Stakes. His third quarter-mile split was :23.42, sitting no more than half a length off the Preakness winner, Seize the Grey, as both went a sub-23 opening quarter mile. Seize the Grey finished 7th beaten nearly 16 lengths, while Dornoch stubbornly fended off Mindframe.
Should he remain healthy going into the Travers Stakes, there is no reason to think Dornoch can’t notch his third win in a row. Of all the probables, he has the least amount of questions to answer. We know he likes the track and the distance, the Travers is contested at the same track, Saratoga, and distance that this year’s Belmont Stakes was. He’s also proven against several of those he’ll be facing, and he’s done it while setting fast splits and slow splits.
Yes, this is horse racing, anything can happen…but as of yet, not a single horse has been able to beat Dornoch while he’s dictating terms. I don’t see that changing in the Travers Stakes.
