In many prior columns I’ve discussed the wide array of information available to today’s handicapper. We all look at the same information, but we come up with different opinions as to what it means. That’s part of what makes this game great and challenging. You can teach people how to read past performances and most of the other information available to them, like speed figures, pedigree analysis, workout information, just about anything, but they’ll still come up with varying opinions based on the same data. They’ll all be wrong more than right, creating the need to understand value, and the nature of pari-mutual wagering, which many of them never will. To varying percentages they will all be right as well. Maintaining a good percentage of being right and maximizing the profit on those occasions is key to beating the game.
One of the things that can’t be taught is experience. Experience and longevity is an edge in this game. Sure you can be new and fresh and be successful, but the old bull will get the young bull in the long run. History repeats in this game. It can be tricky at times, as sometimes it does so under different names, or under different circumstances, but if you have been around long enough, and are a student of the game, you will recognize some of those times in advance.
For example, you may remember that time from long ago when a horse shipped into a big meet to run in a big race. The horse had an unknown trainer, cold or obscure rider, and had run mostly in lesser races and at smaller circuits. His past performances were good, but not seemingly good enough for this task, and all the workout reports were bad. The trainer was criticized for their morning ways and handling of the horse. Although there was something about the horse you liked, you were influenced by the masses and negativity and watched the horse roll home a winner at 14-1. Next time you find a similar scenario, experience will have taught you, “I’ve seen this before” and you will wager accordingly. It’s not the best example I know, but I think you see what I mean. Those intangibles that come with experience are invaluable. On the flip side, you may recall the horse who shipped in with that big number, and generated a buzz, who took all that money and flopped. He’ll be back too under a different name, you just have to spot him. History repeats.
I’ve had many a conversation over the years with stat guys about using them in handicapping. As with all our information, you have to know how to use and decipher stats. If it were as simple as looking up trainer x’s stats running maidens long first time out, in maiden special weight races, we’d all cash a lot more tickets and eliminate a lot more losers. Although stat guys will point out those stats as if they are the end all be all guarantee in racing, I’ll caution you stats lie. Not all of them and not all the time, but they lie. This is where that intangible experience I touched on earlier comes in. Let’s use Saratoga 2015 to illustrate my point. I think this meet should have shown some of the stat guys “you have to know when to fold, and know when to hold em.” It’s not as simple as just reading a statistic.
Not to veer too far off course, but it’s the same as with The Sheets or Thorograph. A lot of people use them. Many more than in the past and they are no longer as big an edge as they were previously. They remain an edge however, as many who use them don’t know how to. They can tell you who has the lowest number or fastest race, but can’t tell you why, or if they will do it again or bounce. For some of us, that’s a good thing. Remember this is pari-mutual wagering. It’s no different with stats, you have to know what they mean and when. If trainer x has never won a race at three quarters of a mile on turf first time out, but he’s got a lawn mowing rocket in today, that stat is going to hurt you not help you and may wind up costing you a pick 4, 5, or even 6.
Every day on social media you will see stat guys talk about stats that sound very powerful, and people will follow them as if the results are in. I assure you they’re not. After being called out about pointing that out a few times during this Saratoga meet, I can say it was nice to be vindicated on quite a few occasions, one in particular that was a meet maker. We’ll get back to that one in a minute.
Early on in the meet I pointed out a Bill Mott trained horse going long on turf first time out as a contender in a race, and as a must use horse. The stat guys jumped all over me, pointing out the low % Mott had with horses in this category and with first timers over all. I was not swayed nor impressed. I have been around long enough to know what Bill Mott can do with a race horse. Any race horse, under any conditions. I have also seen him win enough races first time out going back 15 or so years to know that stat was misleading at best. Very much so. I pointed out some recent first time out winners, even a famous one like Close Hatches, that was not all that long ago. Others as well. It didn’t matter to some, the stat was good enough. Site Read won going away at 20-1. You have to look beyond the stats, and into the individual race and barn. That wasn’t Mott’s only first time winner either. All barns are not equal. You have to know the players.
Site Read won going away at 20-1. You have to look beyond the stats, and into the individual race and barn. That wasn’t Mott’s only first time winner either. All barns are not equal. You have to know the players.
The meet maker was a Shug McGaughey filly named Fair Point. She was running in the last race on the card. She had run as a two year old and showed improvement with one race more than fast enough to win who she faced here. She didn’t have to improve, although she likely would from 2 to 3, all he had to do was repeat it and she’d be in the winners’ circle barring some unforeseen drastically improved race from someone or very fast race from the one first time starter in the bunch. I didn’t think she could get beat, and thought she was a single and standout in any multi race wager. I played accordingly. It started in the morning, Shug never wins first time back. They always need one. They are never ready. If you have followed Shug’s career you know that is just not so. Especially at Saratoga. He may not have won off the bench from a while, but who was he bringing and who were they facing? You can catch some salty fields at Saratoga. How many times was he bringing the fastest horse in the race like this time? Even on the NYRA feed they pointed out Shug doesn’t win with returnees. Avoid they said. Again I was not swayed. Although Fair Point was dead on the board and didn’t go off favored as she should clearly have, and she had to work harder than I anticipated for the win, she made it. She capped a $1739 pick 4 for a 50 cent wager. That price was helped no doubt by the winner of the first leg, Chinchilla Doll, trained by Michael Wilson. Michael is having a relatively quiet meet and not running many horses, but he’s a fine horseman and extremely capable trainer. He learned from Richard Mandela and Bob Baffert, amongst others. He may have some weak stats presently, but he’s capable and dangerous at any time. We profiled and introduced him right here at Past the Wire a while back. You can read it on our website.
Sure percentage wise stats can be a great help, and sometimes they cannot be overcome. This is usually true with less adept trainers than with guys like Shug and Mott. To think a stat can beat those guys and guys like them is a losing proposition. Look at the race and individual circumstances. There is no short cut or cliff notes and nothing that can make up for that intangible experience. Use it as it develops. With less adept barns, who generally run low percentage, you can rely on stats a bit more. I get them and look at them for every race and every horse and in every category. I would be right in that long line to say they are extremely valuable, but like with sheets, and past performances, we all see the same information differently. I remember before stats were so readily available I used to look forward to and read Bill Mazur’s info guides on crushing certain meets and even the Breeders’ Cup. He always had some good stats and patterns but with a human element to it as I am trying to bring here. He could differentiate between them by knowing the players. Things change too. It was not all that long ago stats told us Kieran McLaughin and Graham Motion never win first out. Look at those stats now. Even take John Kimmel, as fine a horseman as you’ll find. He used to have killer stats first out, today not so much. Believe me he’ll burn you in a second with the right horse.
Linda Rice was another one. A lot of people knew Forever in Love could run and was well meant first out. Anyone around the game should know the name Rice and know they are all excellent horseman. One of the earliest things I recall about them is when I was a kid, some guy named Clyde Rice shipping in to Belmont and winning first time out with two year olds. He was beating some heavy hitter barns in the process too. We had no Formulator back then to keep track of stats but I’m sure his were good. I learned early on to pay attention to any Clyde Rice two year old shipping in. When the stat guys knocked Forever in Love’s chances citing Linda’s low percentage with first time starters, I chuckled and thought anyone named Rice is dangerous with a first timer at the right time. She took plenty of money, despite the stat guys knocking her and won easy. Stats lie. History repeats.
There has been an awful lot of discussion, much of it negative, toward Jose Lezcano’s ride on Frosted in The Travers. Before being so critical, maybe you can watch Jorge Velasquez keep Steve Cauthen so tight on the rail, Steve couldn’t use his right hand and had to go left. I’m sure you know the race. Or how about what is often referred to as one of the best rides ever, Pat Valenzuela schooling Pat Day and Easy Goer and keeping them pinned on the wood in The Preakness. Tough and aggressive race riding is part of the game. I’d venture to say it’s not nearly as bad as what Victor Espinoza did to Shared Belief carrying him out into the parking lot. That wasn’t race riding. Jose Lezcano was.
High 5:
Forty seven years is a lifetime. More than a lifetime for some. No matter what type of race you compete in, Saratoga is one of, if not the toughest places to win. That includes steeplechase and any class level. The Spa brings out the best in all of us. Sports in general and racing itself have generated some great streaks. I love it when our game, The Sport of Kings, generates a streak enviable by the whole sports world. Woody did it with his Belmonts, and D Wayne did it with his string of Triple Crown races. Jonathan Shephard takes a back seat to none of them with his string of winning a race at Saratoga forty seven years in a row. Lune de Caro did it for him on August 19th and along with Woody and the Coach, it’s a streak that likely won’t be equaled or broken. He deserves a spot in the Saratoga walk of fame and a race named for him. Turf would be appropriate. High Five!
Dale Romans is as dangerous with a good horse as he is with a left hook. Dale repeatedly gets the most out of his runners and if you don’t think so, try claiming one from him. He knows his stock at every level. After having a rough Spa 2015, Dale got off the donut with one of the biggest wins in his career. Keen Ice upset The Travers to the surprise of many, but not Dale. He knew his horse would get a Grade 1 and told everyone who’d listen. Never underestimate a true horseman with a good horse. High Five!
Low 5
There are two groups who put money into the game. Owners and bettors. I love when either or both are recognized. I don’t appreciate when owners are singled out as the lifeblood of racing. It’s not true and it’s not fair. The bettors share that stage, like it or not. One cannot exist without the other. Chris Kay earned another low five singling out the owners as the lifeblood during a ceremony at Saratoga. It’s just a total disconnect from the game and his customers. I think he tries, he’s just not a race tracker. I’d love to do a long lunch with him and really get into the heart of the game. My treat of course.
