Deterministic, shown setting a course record to win the Grade 1 Manhattan under Kendrick Carmouche, looks to defend his title in Saturday’s Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. (NYRA Photo)
Christian Abdo
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable’s Deterministic seeks a title defense, but it won’t come easily among a classy field in Saturday’s Grade 1, $750,000 Fourstardave, a one-mile inner turf test for 3-year-olds and up, at Saratoga Race Course.
The Fourstardave offers a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile in October at Keeneland.
The multiple Grade 1-winning Deterministic, trained by Miguel Clement, is one of four Grade 1 winners in the seven-horse field, including Rhetorical, Zulu Kingdom and the filly Classic Q.
“This is a small field, but a spectacularly good one in terms of their ratings,” Clement said. “This will be a great betting race for sure, but we’ll be ready for them.”
Deterministic [post 5, Kendrick Carmouche] has made two starts this year, both successful title defenses, in the nine-furlong Grade 3 Fort Marcy in May at Belmont at the Big A and the 1 3/16-mile Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan on June 6 here. In the latter, which Deterministic won last year by a head, the 5-year-old Liam’s May bay tracked Rhetorical and kicked clear in the lane to a half-length victory in a Mellon turf record 1:50.50.
“He’s giving us every indication yet again that he is set for a very big performance,” said Clement. “Everyone [handicapping] is worried about the cutback in distance. They said the same last year and he was very impressive when he won the Fourstardave. I think when they are that good, distance doesn’t become a limitation. You are able to both stretch them out and cut them back, and they’re still able to perform at the highest level.”
Last year, Deterministic exited the Manhattan to capture the Fourstardave by 1 1/4 lengths in the final start of his campaign. He is 15-9-3-1 overall with over $2.63 million in earnings, which is almost $50,000 shy of Lagynos’ field-high, who similar to Deterministic, enters on a five-race win streak.
Lagynos [post 7, Jose Ortiz], trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen for HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud, earned his $2.68 million via a 28-10-5-7 record. This year as a 5-year-old, the Kantharos chestnut has made six starts, winning his last five, four of them graded, including the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Wise Dan last out on June 27 at Churchill Downs.
Last year’s Fourstardave was Lagynos’ lone Grade 1 attempt thus far, where he landed seventh at odds of 49-1 after four placings to start the year. Bettors will not get odds anywhere close to that price with Lagynos’ current form and proven late kick.
“He’s always had talent, but now he’s figured out how to win,” Asmussen said. “He’s had a wonderful year so far, now he’s stepping up into a Grade 1. The mile suits him.”
Gary Barber, Cheyenne Stable and Wachtel Stable’s dual Grade 1-winner Rhetorical [post 1, Irad Ortiz, Jr.] is the reigning New York-bred Horse of the Year. The 5-year-old Not This Time gelding was a pacesetting fourth last out in the Manhattan, sporting an aluminum pad to deal with a foot fungus, and trainer Will Walden said he’s coming into the Fourstardave in seemingly improved form.
“It wasn’t the most ideal way of coming into a race for us, but he set a stakes record running fourth,” Walden said. “He ran his tail off. He did the big body of the work up front, and take nothing away from him – he gave everything he had and I think he ran a terrific race in defeat.”
Rhetorical previously earned a field-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure for a 3 1/4-length wiring of the nine-furlong Grade 1 Turf Classic on May 2 at Churchill Downs. That was his second Grade 1 win after capturing the Turf Mile in October at Keeneland ahead of a two-length fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile in November at Del Mar.
“He’s doing very good. The cutback isn’t an issue, and he’s talented anywhere between eight and nine furlongs,” Walden said of the dark bay bred by Mallory and Karen Mort. “Physically, he’s bigger and stronger. Mentally, he’s sounder in some ways. One of his strengths is kind of this animalistic, feral side that he can turn on and just run like a wild horse. He harnesses it for race day.
“This race will have quite a bit of speed, and as usual, I think he’s probably part of it up there, but his tractability is a weapon of his,” Walden added.
Dual Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse brings that speed with 4-year-old filly Classic Q [post 4, John Velazquez] and New York-bred gelding Mi Bago [post 2, Luis Saez], both coming off pairs of prominent wins.
Gary Barber, Blue Crevalle Racing and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners’ Classic Q wired the one-mile Grade 1 Just a Game presented by Resolute Racing versus her own sex last out on June 6 here.
“It looks like there is a lot of speed in there,” Casse said. “Johnny will have to decide [the trip]. You can’t grab her. If they run with us, it’s probably not good for either one of us. We’ll just have to see how it goes.”
Casse sent out Got Stormy to defeat males in this race in 2019 and 2021, and he also won it with the gelding World Approval in 2017.
Gary Barber’s Mi Bago dead-heated for victory with returning rival Zulu Kingdom last out in the Grade 3 Kelso on July 5 over course and distance. The 4-year-old Vekoma bay earned a career-best 100 Beyer and his first graded score, successfully stepping up from a 4 1/2-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile state-bred Kingston on June 3 here.
Casse said the speedy Mi Bago, bred by Highclere, was originally pointed to the state-bred West Point presented by Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital on August 28 here, but touted himself well enough in the mornings to enter this race.
“He’s a neat horse,” Casse said. “I was going to wait and just run him in the New York-bred race at the end of the meet, but he said, ‘put me in, coach!’ That horse is a machine. It’s not going to be easy, but that’s why they’re Grade 1s.”
Zulu Kingdom [post 3, Flavien Prat] stalked-and-pounced to his aforementioned dead-heat for victory in the Kelso. Trained by five-time Eclipse Award-winner Chad Brown, the dual Grade 1-winner rebounded from a third-of-5 in the Grade 3 Poker over course and distance on June 7.
“I’m very, very pleased with him,” Brown said. “It’s a tough field, he [Mi Bago] made it tough last time, but it’s a Grade 1 at Saratoga, they are all going to be tough.”
Madaket Stables, Michael Dubb, William Strauss and Michael Caruso’s Zulu Kingdom is 8-for-11 overall. The 4-year-old Ten Sovereigns ridgling began his campaign with a wiring of Keeneland’s Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile, his second top-level score to go with the American Turf last May at Churchill Downs. Zulu Kingdom earned a career-best 100 Beyer last out.
Rounding out the field is dual graded stakes-placed Capitol Hill [post 6, Junior Alvarado] for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has won this race a record six times, most recently with Casa Creed in 2022-23.
The Fourstardave [Race 10] is one of four graded stakes on Saturday’s loaded Grade 1, $1 million Whitney card, headlined by the nine-furlong “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic in Race 12. The 14-race card will also feature the Grade 1, $750,000 Saratoga Derby presented by Qatar Racing in Race 11 and the Grade 1, $500,000 Test presented by Ticketmaster in Race 9. First post is 11:45 a.m. Eastern.
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