Derma Sotogake hits the track April 26 to breeze in preparation for Kentucky Derby 149 (Coady Photography)
By Laura Pugh
When it comes to the UAE Derby, it is no secret that it hasn’t been a successful springboard to the Kentucky Derby.
The best a horse coming from the race had finished in the Kentucky Derby was 5th place, and that was Master of Hounds in 2011. Well-regarded horses like Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn, and Crown Pride finished up the track, or not at all, after losing their cool due to the Kentucky Derby fanfare.
This year, the Japanese invader Derma Sotogake looks to give the UAE Derby and Japan their first win in the Kentucky Derby.
After his work this Wednesday, it seems as though several are saying they believe he’s in over his head. Let me be clear… if anything is going to get to this horse, it won’t be that work. In fact, that work was extremely impressive. Not only was it a textbook blowout from the Japan training handbook, it demonstrated a lightning turn of foot and a clear affinity for the surface.
The “official” work went on record as five furlongs in 1:01.40. However, especially when looking at the splits, gives the impression of a 4-furlong blowout with a 5 furlong gallop out. The work was in company and produced splits of :13.20, 12.60, 11.40, 11.40, and 12.80. The rate of deceleration in that final split is exactly what you would expect of a horse that was finished with its work and going on the gallop out. In fact, his workmate, Continuar, was credited with a four-furlong move, because he didn’t gallop out.
This caused quite a bit of confusion, but a lot of the distaste towards the work came from the fact that Derma Sotogake was urged throughout the stretch, which is not something you see with American workers. However, this is, again textbook for Japanese horses.
When going back to last year, in his penultimate work, Crown Pride had an easy four-furlong move in 49 and change. This work was solo and the rider sat very still. This is exactly how Derma Sotogake looked in his work last week. In Crown Pride’s final move, he again worked four furlongs, but in a much quicker time and was under urging, getting reminder taps from his rider, through the stretch. This was exactly what happened with Derma Sotogake today, only his rider never used the stick, and was hand-urging him.
Given that this was likely Derma Sotogake’s final work before the Kentucky Derby, it’s quite clear that his connections are following the exact same pattern that most Japanese trainers have.
So, if you were worried about the “urging,” don’t be. This is completely normal for Japanese training. When you look past that, you see a horse that came home his final quarter in 22.80 seconds, with a gallop out of 12.80, and worked well ahead of his workmate.
What can be derived from this is that Derma Sotogake is a very talented horse with speed to spare, that has now demonstrated a clear affinity for the track he will be competing on next Saturday. This should be something that encourages those who are looking to support him.
Does this mean that he wins?
If only it were that easy. It means he’s primed to run a big race, however, the son of Mind Your Biscuits still has to show he can handle the crowds, atmosphere and fanfare that completely unraveled other highly regarded UAE winners. He needs to get the trip that so many others couldn’t get.
There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Derma Sotogake coming into this year’s Kentucky Derby, but this last workout is not one of them.
