There are not many more exciting times in horse racing than the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. Both races have such great histories and are of such significant importance to our game, it’s hard not to catch “Derby Fever.” Everyone in the game gets it no matter what level you play or work at.
Kentucky Derby fever is the fever you want. It’s fun, exciting, and can lead to large exchanges of money when you are right. Owners get it, trainers get it, jockeys get it, and of course bettors get it. The only known cure is watching the most exciting two minutes in sports.
This year Past the Wire offered something new to its readers. I decided to do a Derby Radar article going over all the horses early, then periodically add updates as things developed and race time got closer. All the updates were dated and italicized to make the thought process easy to follow. Contenders, pretenders, and tosses were separated. The response was overwhelming and the plan is for it to be a yearly ritual going forward. You can read the last updated version here in the event you missed it:
Now bear in mind final selections and the last of The Kentucky Derby preparation work is not done until after the post-position draw. The draw impacts the pace, and the pace makes the race. Early selections are fine, but your final opinion should not come until after the draw, and sometimes until after you see how the track is playing. All these things go into my decision making, and they are all important. we can have an outline, contenders, pretenders, and tosses, but with an open mind subject to revision based on factors not known until race day. Weather is also a consideration although this year the hope is it is a non factor.
While the pool sizes and quality of competition almost always makes Oaks-Derby Days laden with opportunities, this year seems especially so. The Derby is wide open, and favorite Nyquist doesn’t seem to get the support, backing, and hype of a horse with his credentials. That’s going to help the odds, from start to finish, especially in all the exotic wagering. That’s true whether you like him or not. If you like him, you should get a fair price for a favorite, especially one with his resume, and if you don’t, his odds as favorite being generous will keep the others odds higher. It’s a win-win for bettors in my opinion.
The supporting cards are strong with value to be had almost all day, both days. I’d recommend being selective, and going after what you really like hard, and just enjoying some of the races, or playing them small. It’s the kind of weekend you can do really well with a small bank roll if you exercise some patience. I always say, “cash less, win more.” If you are a Past the Wire reader or follower you know precisely what I mean.
Remember, this is not the weekend to hold back. If you believe in something, or someone go after it and try and make it count. Yes, be patient, no, don’t force it, but there are going to be races and horses you love, that’s when you strike and strike hard. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports and all that goes with it. I hope to see most of you at our webinar. We are going to try and make it count!
If you don’t have “Derby Fever” yet, just watch this, you’ll get it:
High Five
Formulator and Thoro-Graph, getting out the info we need fast and smooth. Couldn’t do it without you.
Low Five
There were a few this week, I’m giving passes though, it’s Derby weekend.
