It has been a little chilly for me of late but I really haven’t loved anything. That is why I do not believe in pressing but rather patience and making it count.
The cards are better today and maybe we can make some noise and capitalize on it.
First things first……
TRACKING TRIPS Horses in today:
Jades Gelly (#4, 4/1) is entered Sam Houston Race Park on Saturday, February 5th, 2022 in Race 7.
YOUR NOTES: 8/1/2021, Saratoga, Race 4- Left at the gate and was flying late and looked like she could have been best 10 FIG 7-
My Prankster (#1, 2/1) is entered Gulfstream Park on Saturday, February 5th, 2022 in Race 5 (Claiborne Farm Swale S.).
YOUR NOTES: 8/21/2021, Saratoga, Race 7- Broke from the inside in debut, 2 post and showed good speed drawing off in the stretch like a runner, one of the better two year old runs of the meet. 10 FIG 5 +
Savage Sailor (#2, 3/1) is entered Gulfstream Park on Saturday, February 5th, 2022 in Race 2.
YOUR NOTES: Savage Sailor- 12/5/2021- Gulfstream Park, Race 11- wound up wide and losing ground all the way around and had to go really wide turning for home while the winner cut the corner saving all the ground, finished well and galloped out good. 10 FIG 5-
Speaking Scout (#4, 4/1) is entered Gulfstream Park on Saturday, February 5th, 2022 in Race 7 (Kitten’s Joy S.).
YOUR NOTES: 10/29/2021, Keeneland, Race 7- Was far back and made a big wide move around the turn in a short stretch race, tired late from the effort but hung in and can run a little and is improving. 10 FIG 4-
HORSES TO WATCH:
RACE 8- The Withers:
Early Voting is a tough play at a short price being asked to tackle a stake like this off one race, a maiden special weight win going a one turn mile. He looked like a runner in that win. He is by Gun Runner and we know the start he is off to as a stallion. He is also trained by Chad Brown. He has a lot going for him but will be a short price being asked to do something he hasn’t done and is at least statistically difficult and low percentage.
Normally you don’t take a short price in that situation. That said, Chad Brown doesn’t put his horses in spots he thinks they can’t handle or will set them back. That tells me he either knows his horse is up to the task, or he thinks the race will do him good and he can build and go forward off it. I believe Chad has one or more Kentucky Derby’s with his name on it, so I’ll root for Early Voting to be one of the good ones and prove it on Saturday.
Cooke Creek drew a rough post but may improve some if he gets back on a fast track for this race. We’ll see.
I think Early Voting will manage to get it done, but if he runs a race he can build off I would not write him off going forward. I can see why you might not want to take a short price on him, but I wouldn’t run to the windows to bet against him here either. This could be Chad’s Derby year. He is sitting quietly strong.
Radio Days will take a lot of money and Dylan Davis is scheduled to catch a flight and come ride her for Shug. She can win and is a nice filly, but I think both Girl With a Dream and Diamond Wow are dangerous.
RACE 10- The Sweetest Chant:
Roughly a Diamond is a nice fit in here and Leparoux is a nice fit for her. She is an honest trying filly with a nice late turn of foot, she should get set up a bit in here and I think she will be running late at a price.
RACE 11- The Holy Bull:
The Holy Bull drew a field of 9. This one will be run at a mile and a sixteenth around the Hallandale oval. Mo Donegal and Tiz the Bomb should take the bulk of the money. Mo Donegal is on a lot of Kentucky Derby lists, mine isn’t one of them, after a controversial win in the Remsen. Tiz the Bomb has been running on turf but handles the dirt and showed his class running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf back in November.
While those are the big two in the Holy Bull, I have my eye on two others.
Giant Game gets a switch to Luis Saez for this. He makes his three-year old debut and has a tough post to deal with but with a trip I think he can make noise here. He beat Call Me Midnight going a route at Keeneland and his race to Corniche, arguably the leader of the crop and class so far was not bad at all. Dale Romans is overdue to start making his presence felt in the big dances again and he might have a horse here who can do that.
White Abarrio is another making his three-year old debut. He comes out of a race many regard highly, the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club won by Smile Happy. He has speed, Tyler Gaffalione and Saffie Joseph in his corner. He is working well and won both his races at Gulfstream Park looking good.
I’ll take my chances using those two in the Holy Bull. How the track is playing will dictate who I lean on. I think White Abarrio might get the better trip closer to the pace stalking the speed.
Flowmotion is versatile and I think gets the inside just off the pace trip in here, if Junior gets a seam or tips out without trouble I think we can get home first.
TAMPA BAY DOWNS:
RACE 6- The Endevour:
In Italian looks the part of a runner to me and can also go or come from off the pace. She’ll need to sit with the other speed in here but I would guess Camacho has to see that also. I think she’s the most talented runner in here. Oyster Box is no slouch and improving. She has a bad post, but should drop back and come with a strong run late.
RACE 8- The Tampa Bay:
On paper there is plenty of pace in here. Fly Like an Eagle has been favored in all three of his starts and will be 30-1 or so stepping up in here. he can go forward second off the lay-off and can get involved in this wide open race. Talk or Listen is another who will be running late when it counts.
RACE 6- The Santa Monica:
The race drew only five but plenty of talent and not a ton of speed. Merneith may get the lead and be able to get away with a steal.
RACE 8- The San Pasqual:
Spielberg has to be viewed as a disappointment to date but looked good last out and may be coming around. No Lasix is a concern along with the previous duds, but Prat is back and I’ll give him a shot.
RACE 9- Crash Corrigan only had one prior grass start and it was ok but I think he can improve here, is a nice fit and gets a n ice trip down the hill, price will be fair or better.