CHURCHILL DOWNS 5/30/2020 FULL CARD SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

May 30, 2020

Anthony Fontaine may live on an island in the Atlantic Ocean, but it doesn’t stop him from staying in touch and tune with his passion horse racing. Again Anthony burned the midnight oil and dove into the past performances as opposed to the Atlantic. Here are his thoughts and selections on Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs.

Race One Selections:  5-7-4-1

#5 Brittle and Yoo takes a slight drop after a troubled debut and looks tough in this spot today. With a clean trip should challenge for the win.

#7 Our Secret Agent has had two solid races and appears to fit well with this group. Another that should be formidable with the experience gained. #4 Dancewiththedevil showed little in the sloppy debut at Oaklawn but has been working gangbusters for this event. With improvement this one can spice up the exotics. 

Race Two Selections: 2-4-8-6

#2 Sun Dress has speed but has failed to sustain the bid in recent events. The competition today appears a bit friendlier and this one may be tough to reel in with a good break. 

#4 Lady Cleopatra another speedy sort that was dueled into submission last out. Should fare better today. #8 Mongolian Humor failed to finish last out and finds a field today that looks evenly matched. 

Race Three Selections: 1-4-5-11

#1 Bastet draws the rail for the debut which can be tricky but this one has been working well and Mott has got better as a debut trainer recently. Worth a shot at a nice price.

#4 Elle Ma Souri has been highly competitive in her races so far and appear one of the main players again today for a trainer that is hitting her stride. Do not sell this one short. #5 Messina has disappointed in both starts so far but adds blinkers today and gets Pletcher’s main rider over the last three decades so will give this runner another shot in a competitive event. 

Race Four Selections: 2-5-1-4

# 2 Arch Ability comes of a score on a wet track and will look to make it two in a row. The off going did not hurt this one however had shown flashes of ability before so thinking this one will be in the mix once again today.

#5 Creekmore has not been competitive in the last few races so the drop in class is warranted. With the relief runner should be able to give a better performance. #1 Its My Bag Baby shortens up after falling short going longer. Has speed and the rail which is always a potent weapon. Give this one a major shot today. 

Race Five Selections: 5-6-1-10

#5 Time Heist appears ready to win off the last effort. Fell a bit short but should be formidable today with that race under his belt.

#6 Digital Star would love lots of pace to chase and may get a decent set up today. This one has never ran a bad race on the main track and expect another solid effort. #1 Chili Nelson makes the debut from the rail today which is always tricky however connections are solid and rider is more than capable. Major player at a price. 

Race Six Selections: 9-5-11-3

#9 Kid Mercury has disappointed since that stylish victory at Kentucky Downs. Will attempt to get back on track today. Rider must avoid getting caught wide and will need a good trip but can spring an upset in this spot. 

#5 Buy Me Candy has had two nice races and looks to build the resume with a solid effort today. The time off should not hurt this one and look for a solid effort once again. #11 Tabled another promising turf runner comes off a nice win at Tampa Bay. Since switching to the turf runner has really come alive and further improvement will mean everyone else may be running for second. 

Race Seven Selections: 8-2-3-7

#8 Mia Mischief loves this surface, distance, and looks to be an odds-on choice in this spot.

#2 Break Even appears the main danger to the favorite. This one can flat out fly and if they hook each other they may both set the table for an upset. #3 Princess Causeway would be the most likely upsetter if the favorites throw down and come back to the field. Runner has shown ability and with the right pace scenario can grab a major slice at a nice number.   

Race Eight Selections: 9-4-7-1

#9 Ashiham ran well last time just could not catch a runaway winner that put the field to sleep. With an honest pace to run into this one is formidable today.

#4 Fifty Grand is impeccably bred and barn is starting to hit on all cylinders. Trainer hardly wins debut however how many times over the last four decades a Lukas horse wins a race and as a player you say why didn’t I see this one coming? #7 Bear Alley has had a few good races and will try to put it all together today with a victory. Has worked well and only a matter of time when this stable starts getting some wins.  

Race Nine Selections: 8-6-1-5

# 8 Cardamon surprised them at Oaklawn last time in the off going at a nice number. Horse should be fitter off that performance and looks a major player in this spot.

#6 Bingwa has only one way to go which is all out from the opening bell. Horse should b3e competitive against this group and if left alone may be long gone. #1 Queen of Shades makes first start for new connections and honestly feel horse may be competitive but it is impossible to truly gauge where this one may fit with a new program away from the…..lets say cocktails allegedly served by the prior connections.  

Race Ten Selections: 10-7-8-4

#10 Gun It gets some major class relief however this is not exactly a walkover. Horse is always at the mercy of the pace and needs to avoid a wide trip. A major player with some racing luck.

#7 Fearless tries to get back on the beam since the stake race debacle in New Orleans. Has been working well and may be the main danger late. #8 Top Seed has been a tale of two horses. In the victories has looked professional and composed, however in the defeat was worked up before the race and did not have his mind right. Here is to hope the good one shows up today. 

Race Eleven Selections: 11-13-6-2-1

#11 Zofelle was all the rage at the Fairgrounds this winter and looks to get back to her winning ways today. Rider needs to workout a ground saving trip however with a clear path this one should be flying late.

#13 Elizabeth Way is another up and coming runner that has done little wrong since crossing the pond. This is a tough post on this course however this one is incredibly talented and a must include in the exotics. #6 Nay Lady Nay has been a consistent runner delivering exemplary performances each time. Will be a short price and the one to beat in this spot.  

Contributing Authors

alt="Handicapper Anthony Fontaine sitting in his office"

Anthony Fontaine

An avid horse player for more than 30 originally from the Virgin Islands Tony brings a unique perspective to handicapping.  Using speed figures, keen observation, ...

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@jonathanstettin I had goosebumps reading that. Excellent work, thank you for sharing!

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