The 2025 Belmont Stakes brings a compelling mix of speed, strategy, and shifting dynamics—especially with this year’s 1¼-mile distance at Saratoga. Among the standout names, Baeza has emerged as a horse who might just upset the balance between front-runners Sovereignty and Journalism. After a strong third-place showing in the Kentucky Derby, Baeza skipped the Preakness Stakes, a decision many bettors see as a strategic pause rather than a missed opportunity.
For those analyzing the 2025 Belmont through a betting lens, Baeza’s consistent late speed and pedigree make him a serious contender—not just for a podium finish but for impacting payouts.
Baeza’s Path to the Belmont Stakes
Trained by John Shirreffs and ridden by Flavien Prat, Baeza is a three-year-old colt with notable lineage. Sired by McKinzie, with Puca as his dam, Baeza shares a bloodline with Dornoch, the 2024 Belmont winner. That connection to past success over longer distances has not gone unnoticed by bettors. Heading into the Derby, Baeza was not a top pick, but he demonstrated a powerful closing kick that moved him from mid-pack to third place in a competitive field.
What makes his performance more impressive is how he handled traffic in the early stages, lost ground on the turn, and still gained in the stretch. Shirreffs has described the horse as a strong finisher, and Prat’s familiarity with the colt only adds to the potential. Instead of entering the Preakness, the team opted to rest and prepare for the Belmont—a decision that aligns with the horse’s stamina-first profile and suits the race’s extended length.
Building Exacta and Trifecta Strategies with Baeza
Betting strategies that include exactas and trifectas work best when a horse like Baeza is involved. His running style makes him an ideal second or third-place finisher in exacta boxes. Pairing him with Sovereignty or Journalism offers a mix of low-risk, moderate-return combinations. If Baeza finishes ahead of one of the top two, the payouts increase without requiring a complete upset.
For trifectas, Baeza serves as a bridge horse—a competitor likely to appear on the board regardless of who wins. A common strategy would be to build a trifecta box including Baeza, one favorite, and a mid-range horse like Rodriguez. This allows room for variance while still relying on form. Another approach is to key Baeza in second place, assuming he will split the difference between a dominant front-runner and a closing longshot. That format reduces the number of combinations and keeps cost manageable without compromising potential return.
Many bettors looking to diversify their tickets prefer reliable horses that won’t fade in the stretch. This makes Baeza a prime candidate for those who want to bet on the Belmont Stakes without focusing solely on the favorites. Including him in boxed wagers provides more flexibility in finish order while maintaining a logical structure.
The horse also fits into more advanced multi-race strategies where consistent board finishes are crucial. In races with unpredictable pace scenarios, Baeza’s stamina and tactical patience offer bettors a foundation to build around.
Why Baeza Fits Exotic Wagering Profiles
Exotic wagers require balance. Bettors need horses with reliable tendencies but enough upside to differentiate the ticket. Baeza fits that profile better than many. His odds reflect confidence but not hype, and his form suggests he won’t disappear when the real running starts. With a proven jockey and a pedigree designed for stamina, Baeza aligns well with both conservative and adventurous strategies.
For those who study pace and projections, Baeza’s running style benefits from others tiring in the final furlong. If Journalism pushes Sovereignty early, and both burn energy by the mile mark, Baeza’s measured pace could become the deciding factor. That scenario positions him not just as a back-end fill, but a late-stage spoiler for more ambitious tickets.
The trifecta combination of Baeza, a favorite, and a mid-tier longshot such as Crudo or Hill Road could result in a favorable balance between risk and payout. Unlike betting favorites to win outright, which often offer low returns, exotic plays involving Baeza carry greater potential with structurally sound logic behind them.
Comparing Baeza to the Field
The Belmont Stakes lineup this year is unusually stacked due to the Triple Crown being out of reach. That means top-tier horses are converging in Saratoga without one dominant narrative. Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby and Journalism claimed the Preakness. Both horses bring strong cases for favoritism. However, Baeza’s performance in the Derby, where he finished just behind them, signals that he’s not far off.
What separates Baeza is the absence of a poor showing. Some horses in this field—like Heart of Honor or Uncaged—have up-and-down records. Baeza, meanwhile, has hit the board in four of five starts and boasts nearly $650,000 in career earnings. His third in the Derby wasn’t a fluke. It came after a steady buildup in prep races and under high-pressure conditions. Unlike some speed-reliant colts, Baeza has shown versatility. He can close, he can hold pace, and he responds well to shifting race dynamics.
There’s also the matter of training. John Shirreffs is known for managing late bloomers, and Baeza fits that mold. He doesn’t break out of the gate with early flash, but he finishes with strength and discipline. In a race like the Belmont, where patience matters more than aggression, this characteristic gives him a real edge.
What to Watch for Heading into Race Day
As race day nears, keep an eye on post position, which will be drawn on Monday, June 2. Baeza’s versatility helps offset the risk of an outside post, but a slot near the middle would be ideal. Also monitor track conditions, as rain or fast turf could alter strategy. Prat’s experience and adaptability will be a factor in how Baeza is positioned early in the race.
Another angle is the pace setup. If the field shapes up to include multiple early leaders, Baeza’s closer style becomes even more valuable. His ability to conserve energy while others duel at the front could elevate him from supporting role to headline act. Smart bettors will watch how trainers prepare during the week, especially during workouts.
