When Arrogate and California Chrome met in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic, Chrome was a more seasoned and battle tested older horse. Arrogate was coming off a new top effort, and a huge one at that. He ran the fastest mile and a quarter in the history of Saratoga, winning the Travers. California Chrome was undefeated on the year, including easy wins in the Dubai World Cup and Pacific Classic. Arrogate was off a layoff as well.
Chrome had every reason and right to beat Arrogate that day. It didn’t happen.
Under a heady hall of fame ride by Mike Smith, Arrogate wore down California Chrome in the final strides to beat him on the square. California Chrome had things all his own way that day, a scenario less likely in The Pegasus. the horse drew the statistically disadvantaged 12 post while Arrogate drew the rail. Even with all this California Chrome has his loyal followers, and he hasn’t disappointed them many times.
Additionally, I think the majority consensus amongst handicappers seems to be favoring California Chrome. The late breaking story about Arrogate’s abscess and 3/4 shoe will also help tilt the odds toward his rival.
Many people also think the mile and an eighth of The Pegasus as opposed to the mile and a quarter of The Classic favor Chrome. Art Sherman, usually reserved, stated they’d win. Victor Espinoza echoed that. Bob Baffert and Mike Smith while confident, were more of the tough race coming up mindset.
Publicly anyway. I think California Chrome goes off favored, less than even money probably, but I am not sure I agree with the masses. I liked Arrogate in The Breeders’ Cup Classic, and I lean that way again.
