Dornoch victorious in the Fountain of Youth (Coglianese)
By Laura Pugh
In a surprising and disappointing turn of events… Super Weekend in racing transformed into Subpar Weekend.
The weekend of March 2nd and 3rd started out with such promise. Stakes from coast to coast, many of them highly anticipated Kentucky Derby preps, like the Fountain of Youth and San Felipe, capped by the Santa Anita Handicap (Big Cap). Unfortunately, the postponement of four graded stakes at Santa Anita, including two of the aforementioned stakes, and a series of scratches decimated the quality of the races. This left the weekend in shambles, and fans who were hoping for a clear Derby picture, with more questions than answers.
Fountain of Youth (G2)
When the entries for the second in a series of three Kentucky Derby preps at Gulfstream Park were released, the Fountain of Youth looked to be the most anticipated prep this season. The field contained Speak Easy and Victory Avenue, who ran one/two in a very fast maiden on the Pegasus World Cup undercard. In addition to those two, Locked and Dornoch, the Breeders’ Futurity and Remsen Stakes winners, were making their seasonal debut.
Then Locked scratched after a subpar gallop that morning. Victory Avenue, who was expected to be a big part of the pace, was scratched near the same time after his connections said he didn’t finish his feed that morning and the night before, while also not showing the same level of “energy” they were accustomed to from him. Then in the post parade, Speak Easy unseated his rider, ran into the rail, and was scratched after sustaining some scratches.
Dornoch would prevail in the very whittled-down edition of the race, but it wasn’t the performance many were looking for. The son of Good Magic looked to have things his own way on paper, but the individual splits tell another story (24.39; 23.75; 23.29). Those were the opening three quarters that Dornoch ran. The fourth quarter of 25.52 enabled him to get a slight breather, but make no mistake, those second and third quarters in a two-turn race, in his first start in 13 weeks, would take a toll.
His final split, a 1/16th of a mile in 6.69 seconds, was average, but I believe this was due to a few factors. The pace mentioned above, the layoff, and I’m also getting the impression that Dornoch either runs to his competition or waits on them. He appeared beaten in the Remsen, then re-rallied versus Sierra Leone once he caught sight of the opponent. In the Fountain of Youth, he looked out of gas, only there was no Sierra Leone to come up late and make him re-engage.
Equibase has the race rated better than his Remsen, while Beyer has it ranked a couple of points behind that effort. TimeformUS appears to agree with Beyer giving Dornoch a 113 for the Fountain of Youth after he earned a 116 in his Remsen score.
Personally, I am not a fan of Dornoch’s developing habit of waiting on his competitors. It’s giving off Normandy Invasion vibes, and while he was fast and talented, there’s a reason most won’t remember his name. He never progressed after his Remsen performance and remained forever the bridesmaid for the rest of his career.
San Felipe Stakes (G2)
This race drew a short field, but the big surprise to the entry box was Bob Baffert’s unbeaten Nysos.
Up until Saturday, the son of Nyquist wasn’t even listed as probable, or even possible, for the race, despite his nomination. However, before entries were drawn, rumors swirled that he’d be entered and low and behold he was.
Outside of him, the race didn’t appear to have much draw, as two of the other five starters were also Bob Baffert trained. Those horses were Imagination, who was coming off a second place finish to another Baffert big name, Maymun, and stakes-placed Wine Me Up. Disappointingly, see the theme here, Nysos was withdrawn the day of the race by trainer Bob Baffert.
Baffert cited wanting to give Nysos more time after back-to-back big efforts in his last two starts. We should see him in the Santa Anita Derby.
That left the San Felipe with a field of four, half of which were Baffert horses, and it was those two that essentially engaged in their own match race to finish first and second.
I will say, I don’t think Imagination is on the level of Nysos, but I do believe he’s a talented horse who can develop into one of the top horses later this season. He initially was going to rate off of Wine Me Up, but after Scatify became rank and bumped him in the initial stages of the race, he got a little spooked and came after Wine Me Up, even taking over the lead at one point. His rider, Frankie Dettori said he had to take the colt wider than planned to get him to relax again.
Despite all the shenanigans, Imagination was still able to outgrit Wine Me Up, a horse with much more experience in stakes competition and in big race day settings. The final time was not overly impressive, but I’d like to see Imagination come back in one of the third round preps to see how he performs without all the extra in-race drama. I feel like that cost him some energy early on, dampening his stretch drive.
John Battaglia Memorial Stakes
I’m not typically a big fan of synthetic Kentucky Derby preps, but the fact of the matter is that Churchill Downs is very kind to turf and synthetic horses. Animal Kingdom won the race after prepping on synthetic, and horses coming off synthetic preps have performed very well in the past, hitting the top four quite often.
Encino, another son of Nyquist, came into this race with just two prior starts, both of them in maiden company. Despite his inexperience, he rated very kindly after the break and was able to slide over from his post in the 12 spot, and save ground while racing around quite a bit of traffic.
He made a big move on the turn, which landed him in second, one length off the lead turning for home. Moves like that are what win Kentucky Derbies, especially when they continue the way Encino did. Methodically closing in on Epic Ride until he made the front, winning by a length.
The race was visually impressive to me, but on paper, it impresses me even more. His third internal quarter was run in roughly 24.20 seconds. His fourth quarter, around the turn in approximately 24.90, with a final 1/16th that was close to 6 seconds flat. To make a middle move like he did with so little experience, and maintain it is impressive.
There is a question of whether he’s a Turfway specialist. We probably won’t see if he can transfer his form to dirt until the Kentucky Derby itself, but should he be able to, I think it’s probable that he could loom as a major threat to win on the first Saturday in May.
