Who Will Win the Breeder’s Cup 2021?

October 5, 2021

The next big event in horse racing will take place on November 5th & 6th, 2021. Millions of dollars will be at stake during the Breeders’ Cup — two days of high-level horse racing. If you’re betting in the event, you will need enough research to pick a winner and get the maximum win. It’s good to start by spending some time on the formbook, as it contains tons of information that can help you choose winners.

What to look for while researching the Breeder’s Cup?

Horses that are consistently winning races aren’t the only ones to consider. Yes, those horses might have won some races, but against whom? There’s a possibility that they’ve only won lower-class races. On certain levels, they can compete well. But if they step up in class, would they still win? Or will they struggle to compete with the tougher horses? It’s necessary to consider because moving up in class matters a lot.

Breeders’ Cup races aren’t always held at the same track. As a result, you’ll need to check the formbook to learn which horses have won last year. It’ll be helpful to have horses that haven’t only had a specific experience but have previously won there. Just like, among the contenders, Forza Di Oro has moved up to the second tier.

At the Breeders’ Cup, races are run over several distances. Many times, it takes a trainer a while to determine the most suitable distance for a horse. Again, the formbook is vital and seeing that a potential selection had good form, say, a mile race. You can assume that they may perform well based on their past performance. We can look at the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where Knicks Go won in a track record time and is now considered one of the favourites.

This event doesn’t feature every race on turf. When evaluating a horse, one should examine whether it has ever raced on dirt. As dirt may prove difficult for some European contenders who are used to running on turf. You can find it out by looking at their past performances.

A horse’s time off the track is also a significant factor to consider. The risk of picking a horse that hasn’t run for a long time is always there. When a horse comes back after a break, it often needs to participate in a race to improve its fitness. However, another group of horses that enjoy their freshness best won’t be affected by a long time off the track. A horse that runs frequently might be an issue. The horse’s age is another crucial factor to consider- make sure the horse isn’t too old and in losing shape.

Before making any decision, there are some key races to watch that can give you an idea of how the contenders will perform at the Breeder’s Cup. What will the top horses from the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby train in the months to come? The chances of winning for horses such as Medina Spirit, winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby, Max Player, or Hot Rod Charlie may increase at the Breeders’ Cup if they continue to perform well. Check out the 2021 Breeders’ Cup contenders here.

How can a horse win a race?

For a moment, let’s put science and math behind the horse and see if it results in a win. The abilities of each racehorse differ. Some are sprinters, while others are marathoners. Being able to figure out which one to pace can be the difference between falling in the final furlong and claiming the winner’s purse.

Trainers and jockeys have historically relied on data from previous races, experience, and intuition when planning races. Researchers analysed racing patterns for dozens of races in Chantilly, north of Paris, establishing a model with winning strategies for three different races – a short race (1300 meters), a medium race (1900 meters), and a slightly longer race (2100 meters). Besides considering race distance, the model also accounts for track curves, track slopes, and friction from the track surface.

Jockeys who hold horses back in the beginning for the last furlong to get them to burst with energy might be surprised by the results. The team found that a strong start leads to a better finish. However, this doesn’t mean that those jockeys are wrong. In these models, horse behaviour cannot be fully accounted for since every horse has a different size and aerobic capacity.

How is wagering shaping up?

One study offered a unique insight into how attitudes and gambling behaviour changed in real-time because of the lockdown situation. Despite many forms of betting being restricted, some regular gamblers increased their betting online.

New online betting options drew regular bettors during the summer. Data from the Gambling Commission, generated by the largest gambling operators in the UK, showed that online gambling revenues increased dramatically.

With this study and the broader trends being reported, the results are alarming. Vulnerable groups such as children are likely to be attracted to betting channels as patterns of wagering shift online.

As working from home is becoming prevalent, future policy decision-makers must take it into account because online betting will always be a tempting endeavour. Ads, especially for esports, are also attracting children to social media and could lead them to get hooked on betting addiction from an early age. It’s a growing market facilitating bettors immensely. Stricter regulation should be imposed to protect gullible consumers (children) from its effects.

Going forward, with all the hype and increase in numbers, we’ll see a rise in wagering prizes. This market is in the growing stage right now and requires policies to regulate and protect people from unhealthy risks.

Photo: Clarence Alford, Pixabay

"Nice work and well said Jon."

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