As we approach the 151st Kentucky Derby, we are likely to see a bit of movement up and down the betting markets. A record $210 million was bet on the race last year, with a significant chunk of that coming from Japan. It’s not clear if all the Japanese money will be coming in to back the two Japanese-trained runners – Luxor Café and Admire Daytona – but you can be sure that some of it will.
Yet, it looks certain that the post-time favorite will be Journalism. There’s a significant gap between him and second-favorite in the horse racing odds, Sovereignty. Journalism fortified that position with victory in the Santa Anita Derby. It was an impressive run, leaving Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull (a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner) trailing behind in 4th by just under ten lengths.
A deserved status
Journalism clearly deserves to be favorite. It feels like the right choice. Last year, there was a bit of debate over whether Sierra Leone or Fierceness should get the nod, but there feels like little debate this time around. Of course, being favorite can mean very little on race day, and it’s worth reminding ourselves that we have to go all the way back to Justify to find the last time a post-time favorite won the Run for the Roses.
Indeed, Journalism is not without his doubters. Some have pointed to the very small fields of 5 runners he is accustomed to facing (although that’ll be the case for most horses in this race). The “traffic” in a Kentucky Derby can also be a bit of a shock to some runners, as can the din made by crowds of 40,000 people. Yet, trainer Michael McCarthy will be making sure that Journalism is prepared as much as any other in the field.
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For some, comparisons with Justify are apt. The horses are different in style – Journalism is a stalker, Justify was a formidable frontrunner – but their background in prep races in Santa Anita isn’t dissimilar. Both won the Santa Anita Derby as their key prep race before heading to Churchill Downs. Now, we aren’t saying that Journalism is in Justify’s league, at least not yet, and Justify’s route to the Kentucky Derby was famously unorthodox, but there are comparisons in terms of how they prepared. It should be noted, too, that their odds are broadly the same. Others have made comparisons with California Chrome, who won the San Felipe and Santa Anita Debry en route to Kentucky Derby success in 2014.
Luck is needed
Whatever happens, Journalism will need a lot of luck. Recent Kentucky Derby races have been characterized by favorites getting themselves into all sorts of problems when looking for a good position to strike. Yet, backers of Journalism should take heart from how he responded to jockey Umberto Rispoli in navigating the field, especially in the Santa Anita Derby. Journalism seems like a smart horse, and Rispoli will know what to do when the time comes.
Horse racing can always make things look obvious in hindsight, so perhaps we look back after 7 pm on May 3rd and see someone like Sovereignty or even one of the Bob Baffert pair deliver the goods. Maybe it becomes the moment when a Japanese horse takes the glory, and all that international money for Luxor Café begins to make sense. Yet, right now, Journalism looks like the pick of the bunch. It’s worth watching the Santa Anita Derby again to underline that fact. It highlighted all the attributes you need for a Kentucky Derby win. If he can repeat that again on Saturday, it could be a first Derby win for Michael McCarthy.
