Saratoga, Race 1 & 7 – Saturday, July 27, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
SAR1:072724 – One and 1/16th mile on the Turf. 13 colts are entered, 10 will start. The number of FTSers = 7, those with one start = 3.
#3 – Atomic Age (7/2) – Justify (ALL = 20.2%; FTS = 22.3%) is this guy’s dad and he was thrown by a Curlin mare that won as a firster at age two at Belmont in September, but she was not successful in two more runs, ending with $56,000 in earnings. This is her first foal. Today’s colt is homebred by Peter Brant and he’ll be making his first afternoon effort today for Chad Brown (M = 17.7%, 1 1/16th on Turf at SAR = 25.4%). This fella has worked nine times, all here at SAR (33 furlongs), and once on the turf – his times have not been stunning. Prat will tickle the leather.
#5 – States’ Rights (6/1) – This colt was bred in VA and is by Constitution (ALL = 14.6; Turf = 9.9%). His mama is by Pioneerof The Nile and she won north of $100K on the track, winning three of 13 races and this is her first foal of racing age. This guy’s cross is the same one that produced Catching Freedom which won first-time out. In the sales ring, he sold for $225K as a weanling (1/2) and then was pinhooked back as a yearling when he brought $350K (18/66). This fella will be making his second start – his first came at CD on 6/202/24 when he ran a well-beaten 6th of ten. Luis Saez will get the leg up again.
#6 – Seattle Road (15/1) – Tom Amoss (M = 22.2%, ROI = $2.96) will toss the saddle across this colt who is a son of Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%; FTS = 14.7%). His Tapit dam was 2/9 with $91,000 in purse money and this is her first foal. The price tag was $400K for him last year when he was a yearling (20/42). Today will be this guy’s first race and he’s prepped by breezing ten times (43 furlongs) going all the way back to early May, including four at 5/8th of a mile. Back on 5/21/24, he went 47.2 for 4f (4/54). Jose O has been tapped to ride.
#7 – West Beach (5/2 ML fav) – This colt is by Spendthrift Farm’s Second-Crop sire Omaha Beach (ALL = 18.3%; Turf = 4/40, 10.0%). Mama is by Medaglia d’Oro and fashioned a record of 4/13 with earnings of $184K on the track. This is her second foal of racing age. This dude hammered for $100K earlier this year in March at Ocala as a 2YO (16/31) and made one previous start for conditioner Brendan Walsh (M = 0/6). That race was at AQU on 6/23/24 when he ran competitively finishing only 1 ¼ lengths shy of the winner and earned runner-up money. Since that effort, Walsh has given him three, half mile breezes, all here in upstate NY. Tyler will ride him for the first time.
Final Analysis – Although I went with #5 in his debut and #7 is a deserving favorite, my pick is #3 Atomic Age. His daddy bats north of .200 overall with the babies in $30,000+ MSW races, and even higher with firsters. Additionally, mama won at first asking at BEL and I suspect her career was cut short by injury. Peter Brant only breeds good ones, and although his work times have not been eye-popping, he seems to move well and I think he’ll enjoy two turns. And let’s not forget that Brown owns these route events on the lawn here at The Spa.
SAR7:072724 – 6 1/2f on the Dirt. 11 colts are entered, 10 will start. Eight have never competed before today and two have raced one time.
#1 – Invictus (3/1 ML fav) – This FTS colt comes from Spendthrift Farm’s mighty Into Mischief (ALL = 17.8%; FTS = 15.8%). His mom (by Alternation) won $2.19 million on the track by going seven for 19, including a win in her first outing while age two at Hoosier Park, and also captured a G2 while still a juvenile. This guy is her first baby. With that pedigree, you likely won’t be surprised to hear that this fella brought $1.2 million from CHC/Maverick Racing/Siena Farm as a yearling (8/69). Trainer Brad Cox (M = 28.1%, ROI = $2.91; FTS = 20.6%, ROI = $2.90) has put him through his paces in the morning on nine occasions, all in KY (38 total furlongs). Three of his last four have covered 5/8th of a mile and his best may have been 6/15/24 when he went 4f in 47.4 (3/126). Florent earns the ride.
#6 – Noble Confessor (6/1) – A St. Elias homebred, this colt is a product of a cross from Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%, FTS = 14.7%) and Noble Mission. Mama only scored once in seven tries, earning $23,000 and she has one other older, unnamed foal. Todd Pletcher trains this colt up to his debut performance today with nine works (36 furlongs) with his last and one other being at 5/8th of a mile. Two works back, on 7/13/24, he worked 4f from the gate in 47.47 (5/105). Todd’s man, Irad, will guide him today.
#9 – Tharhom (4/1) – Prepped by HOFer Bill Mott (M = 8.1%; FTS = 8.9%) this colt is by Freshman sire – Global Campaign (five winners from 15 starters). His Yes It’s True dam scored three times from the 13 races that she ran and her bankroll ended at $62,000. She’s thrown three other foals of racing age, but nothing to write home about. Today’s competitor has been through the sales ring three times – initially, in early 2023 as a ‘short yearling’ he sold for $82,000 (20/91) then he demanded $150K later that year as a yearling (8/91) and finally he hammered for the big number of $650K at Ocala as a 2YO back in April (1/42 – note: the second highest went for just north of half that amount). Today will be his first race. After his initial spin of 2f in Florida back in early May, Mott has drilled him eight times (31 furlongs) with two of those being bullets. On 5/17/24 he went three panels in 36.55 (1/16) and then on 6/19/24 this fella breezed a half mile in 48.22 (1/11). Jose O will be the man in the saddle.
#10 – Tiztastic (4/1) – This colt is a son of First-Crop sire Tiz The Law (three winners from 14 starters) and was thrown by an unraced mare by Tapit who produced three other foals of racing age (none overly successful). M. V. Magnier & Ron Winchell plunked down $335K last year to buy this guy as a yearling (5/77). He’ll be making his first run today for trainer Steve Asmussen (M = 21.2%; FTS = 25.8%) and he’s pumped 35 furlongs into him (nine breezes) with his best coming at KEE on 6/11/24 when he went a half mile in 47.8 from the gate (6/66). Tyler gets the call from Steve to pilot him.
Final Analysis – The $1 million+ baby (#1) is going to be fun to watch, but I think he is going to get overbet. The Mott colt (#9) is also interesting as you don’t typically see his juveniles firing bullets before their first race. However, my pick is #10 Tiztastic. Asmussen is north of 25% with firsters at SAR and this dude’s ownership group is as good as it gets. He’s been working well, sold in the top 10% of his class, and Steve is handing the keys to Tyler which is always a positive sign.
The Spa has two more of these terrific baby races booked for Sunday (including another at a mile and 1/16th on the lawn), so keep checking in with www.PastTheWire.com for my piece on those two events. Until then, enjoy these two and stay safe and well, my Edgie Maniacs.
