Saratoga, Races 1 & 7 – Saturday, July 20, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
SAR1:072024 – One mile and 1/16 on the Turf. 15 boys are entered, ten will start – nine colts and one gelding.
#3 – Clever Again (7/2 ML fav) – Steve Asmussen (M = 21.2%; 2nd Start = 14.7%) is the trainer of this American Pharoah (ALL = 12.1%; Turf = 15.2%) colt for the partnership of Winchell, Magnier, Tabor and Smith. Mom, who hails from Galileo, won twice in her five races overseas and brought home the equivalent of $89,000 – this is her first foal. This guy started back on 4/21/24 at KEE and he was well backed at the betting windows, going off at odds of 7/2. On that day, he battled the eventual winner but eventually was bested and finished second in a field of eight that went 4 ½ furlongs on the dirt. Winchell plunked down $1/2 million for this fella when he was a yearling (5/60). Since his run, Steve has sent him out for five morning works, four at a half mile and one at 5f (1:01.55 – 1/5), with the last four on the turf training track here at SAR. Ricardo Santana, Jr. will get the leg up.
#4 – Lucas’s Mischief (6/1) – I’m confident that you can tell from this colt’s name that he’s sired by the great Spendthrift stallion – Into Mischief (ALL = 17.8%; Non-FTS = 19.8%). His Irish-bred dam comes from the NZ-bred sire, So You Think, and she won once in 11 races earning only $26,000. She’s produced two other foals of racing age – her 3YO is a full bro to today’s competitor, but he’s yet to start. Her 4YO filly is two for ten with $113K earned. Today will be this guy’s first afternoon event and HOF trainer, Bill Mott (M = 8.1%, FTS = 8.9) has worked him seven times, all here at SAR, including once on the lawn. His best was probably his last when he went a half mile in 48.02 seconds from the gate (7/68). Bill goes to his main man – Junior Alvarado – for the riding duties.
#8 – Nudge (9/2) – This colt is Repole-owned and Pletcher (M = 19.6%, 2nd start = 20.5%) trained and he’ll be making his second afternoon run. His debut came on 6/15/24 at AQU going 5f on the dirt. It was a modest effort, ultimately finishing 10 lengths shy of the winner in fourth place. Uncle Mo is his daddy (ALL = 16.5%; Turf = 17.2%) and his Tapit dam was 4/23 with $357K winnings earned. She has a winless 3YO foal. Since his race, Todd has sent this guy out for three morning breezes of 4f each. Manny Franco will answer the call and slip his feet into the irons.
Final Analysis – My pick is #3 Clever Again. I like the works that he’s put in since his last race back in April and it appears that Steve has been waiting for this spot (1 1/16th mile on the lawn) to bring him back in the afternoon. The ownership group is as strong as it gets and Winchell was willing to dole out $500K for him which was in the top 10% of his class from his pops. Lastly, he’s bred through and through to like the grass and I think he gets it done today.
SAR7:072024 – 6f on the dirt. 10 colts are entered. Nine are firsters and one has started one time.
#1 – Cooper (12/1) – Is a Godolphin Racing homebred colt by Nyquist (All = 18.3%; FTS = 16.9%) and he’s a First-Time starter. His mom, by Bernardini, failed to win any of her three starts. In the breeding shed, she’s tossed three other foals of racing age, her 3YO colt has already won twice from five attempts and collected $154K in purse money. HOFer, Bill Mott (M = 8.1%; FTS = 8.9%) has been training this fella up to today’s race with six breezes (21 furlongs), all here at SAR. In typical Bill Mott fashion, none have been anything to write home about. His go-to ridder, Junior Alvarado, will be in the saddle.
#4 – Incentive Pay (4/1) – First-Crop sire – Volatile (two winners from 13 starters – is the daddy of this colt whose broodmare sire is Distorted Humor. Mama was two for eight as a racemare and earned $44,000. She’s thrown three other foals of racing age, one has won $277K in Japan, and another that brought home $73,000. Today’s combatant hammered for $315K last year as a yearling (6/99). Conditioner Chad Brown (M = 17.7%; FTS = 15.2%) will send this guy out for his first race after having worked him eight times / 29 furlongs. His best drill may have been his best – 47.25 for a half mile here at SAR (18/147). Joel Rosario has been secured to handle the reins.
#7 – Be Real (3/1 ML fav) – (Note: this colt is also entered in the 2YO MSW race here on Friday). Repole Stable bought this dude for $300K at last year’s Keeneland September Yearling sale (26/39). He is produced on a Curlin (ALL = 13.6%; FTS = 12.9%) / Speightstown cross. Mom had a short race career, but she won twice from five tries and $133K in prize money. Additionally, she won first out as a two-year-old here at SAR (85 EBSF). In the breeding shed, she’s thrown three other foals of racing age, one scored six times in 18 outings bringing home $330K in winnings and he also won at first asking in August of his 2YO year at FG in November when he flashed a 99 EBSF. Todd Pletcher (M = 19.6%; FTS = 17.0%) has sent him out for five morning drills, all here at The Spa. Johnny V. will be his pilot.
#8 – Track Ranger (8/1) – Trainer Brad Cox (M = 28.1%, ROI = $2.91; FTS = 20.6%, $2.90) will hoist the saddle across this Calumet homebred colt by Hightail (ALL = 6/41, 14.6%). He was thrown by an Oxbow mare that had a race record of 2/11 with $181K earned. She scored in her second time out in September as a two-year-old at Belterra and also won a G3 while still a juvenile. Today will be this guy’s first afternoon outing and he’s been doing some solid work in the mornings as he’s been out eight times, totaling 33 furlongs, including two spins that covered 5/8th of a mile. Manny Franco will be the captain in charge.
Final Analysis – There are a lot of well-bred babies in this affair, but I’m taking a shot and going with one whose daddy is unproven. My pick is #8 Track Ranger. Cox continues to get better and better with these juveniles here at SAR and I like his work tab, especially the fact that he’s gone five panels on two occasions. I also am encouraged by the work his mom did at the age of two. Let’s give him a shot at the healthy Morning Line odds of 8/1.
There are two more of our wonderful baby races here at The Spa on Sunday and we’ll do our best to cover those for you, too. Take care and be well!
