Saratoga, Race 6 – Thursday, July 18, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
SAR6:071824 – 5 1/2f on the Turf. 12 fillies are entered, 10 will start. The number of FTSers = 7 and those with one start = 3.
#2 – Abientot (6/1) – This is one of two fillies that Mark Casse (M = 14.3%) will saddle in this event and she will be competing in the second race of her young career. In her first try at AQU, she finished 4+ lengths shy of the victor and earned the fourth place money back on 6/21/24. She’s a daughter of Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; Turf = 10/75,13.3%) and her unraced mare is by More Than Ready. She’s produced four others of racing age and two of them won in their first time out and each have gone on to win more than $100K in purse money. Tracy Farmer picked up this gal as a yearling for $210K (30/62). Mark has found time for one workout for her since her race. Dylan Davis will ride her for the second time.
#5 – Will Reign (6/1) – First-Crop sire – War of Will – is looking for his third winner with this filly who is from a Super Saver dam. Mama was 2/5 with $95,000 in earnings and she did win as a 2YO in July in her second outing at ELP. This is Mark Casse’s (M = 14.3%) second entry and she’ll make her debutant performance today. Last year, owner Gary Barber plucked her out of the Keeneland September Yearling sales for $85,000 (32/67). Mark started her working at his training center where she fired four consecutive bullet moves. She then was shipped to SAR where she has put in two more morning drills so she now has a total of 23 furlongs under her. Mark will hand the reins to Flavien Prat to guide her through her paces.
#8 – Never Really Know (12/1) – Mark’s son Norm Casse (M = 1/9; 11.1%) gets in on the action with one of two No Ney Never (ALL = 7/47, 14.9%; Turf = 4/40, 10.0%) fillies that are entered to run in this one. His mom is an Irish bred by the Irish stallion Pour Moi and this is her first foal. Today’s contestant will be making her first start and she sold for $118,217 as a yearling across the pond (58/81). She’s worked seven times (26 furlongs), including her last over the turf training track here at SAR. Ricardo Santana, Jr. will tickle the leather.
#9 – Moon Gate (4/1) – This filly will be making her second career start for conditioner Christophe Clement (M = 23.7%, ROI = $2.32) and she was sired by Spendthrift Farm’s Freshman sire – Authentic (two winners). Her dam is a daughter of Big Brown who won $147K on the track by going three for 11, including a score as a firster in December of her 2YO campaign at LRL. She’s thrown two others of racing age, one is unnamed and the other his 3/15 with $52,000 in winnings and she did win in her fifth try as a 2YO, but it was a MCL race at Emerald Downs. After RNAing as a weanling, today’s runner sold for $200K as a yearling (49/92). Her first run was back on 6/21/24 in the same race as #2 at AQU at 6f on the lawn. That day she raced in second for the majority of the event but got caught at the line and finished third, beaten by 3 ¾ lengths as a 6/1 shot. Clement has pumped two 4f works into her since that race and he’ll give Johnny V the leg up again.
#10 – Brindi (7/2 ML fav) – likely named after one of her owners, Brindlewood Farms, this filly is the second No Nay Never (ALL = 7/47, 14.9%; Turf = 4/40, 10.0%) entrant in this field. Clement (M = 23.7%, ROI = $2.32) will also sling the saddle across this gal, however she is a first-time starter. The hammer fell overseas on this filly last year when she was a yearling for $195,710 (34/81). Mom, by Shamardal, has produced one other – a 4YO full sis to today’s competitor who is only 1/7, but that one victory was in her first race as a 2YO in October at Tarbes. Seven works show on her tab (totaling 26 furlongs), all here at SAR and three of the last four over the turf training strip. Irad gets the call to lead her on her maiden voyage.
Final Analysis – It is interesting that Clement is putting Irad on #10, but my pick is #5 Will Reign. Her slowest work two back at SAR on 6/22/24 was even impressive as she galloped out strong and looked the part of a baby on a mission. Her daddy’s daddy is one of the best grass sires and her mom won as a baby in her second outing. Gary Barber buys quality yearlings and nobody is currently riding better than Prat. Let’s give her a shot at 6/1 on the Morning Line.
We’ve got another magical baby race here on Friday at the same distance and it’s also on the lawn, however it features the boys. Check back in on www.PastTheWire.com to get my thorough analysis of that event. Until then, stay safe and well – thank you for being the best part of this piece.
