Kentucky Downs, Races 4 & 6 Wednesday, September 11, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
KD4:091124 – One Mile on the Turf. 13 fillies are entered, but only 12 will make it to the starting gate. We’ve got two First-Time starters, six that have run once, three that have made two efforts and one that has been out four times.
#1 – El Joury (8/1) – Trainer Brendan Walsh (M = 7/30, 23.3%, $4.24) sends this filly out for her second try for Shadwell Stable. They plunked down $1.1 million for her last year as a yearling which was the most of 35 in her class by daddy, Medaglia d’Oro (Turf = 9.6%). Mama is an Irish-bred daughter of Galileo who was 3 for 14 in her racing career, pulling down $379K in purse money, including a win in her second start at two overseas and also a Grade 2 score on the other side of the pond. She’s thrown six other foals of racing age, three that banked north of $100K and two that won as babies. This filly’s first race was on 8/19/24 at ELP going a mile on the lawn. She led the field for a good bit of the affair before giving way in the stretch. Brendan has given her two works since her run and her most recent was a bullet on 10/5/24 at Turfway Park going 3/8th of a mile in 36.4 (1/12). Tyler will be in the saddle for the first time.
#2 – Never Really Know (3/1 ML fav) – No Nay Never (Turf = 4/40, 10.0%) is the stallion responsible for this Irish-bred gal who is out of an unraced Pour Moi (IRE) dam and this is her first foal. $118,217 was the winning bid on this filly last year when she was a yearling (58/81). This will be her third afternoon start, after trying two turf events at Saratoga. Her last, on 8/15/24 at a Mile and 1/16, she set the pace and begrudgingly gave up the lead in the stretch to lose by one length as the bridesmaid. Conditioner Norm Casse looks for his first win here at Kentucky Downs in two prior tries, dating back to 2019. He’s given her one prep since her last race up at SAR when she did a half mile in 48.66 seconds (5/59). Ricardo Santana, Jr. will pilot her for the third time.
#8 – Ramsey Pond (10/1) – Saffie Joseph (M = 0/8) will sling the saddle on this gal for the second time in two weeks and the third time, in total. This filly is by Divisidero and was thrown by a Malibu Moon mare that won half of her six starts, but only $39,000. She’s tossed one other foal of racing age, a 3YO that has only made one start. In the sales ring, today’s competitor hammered for $100K as a yearling (1/10). She has disappointed in both her previous starts, originally going off at 8/5 at GP then at 5/2 on 8/29/24 at KD. Irad takes the mount and will ride her for the first time in her young career.
#10 – Mambo Queen (5/1) – Mendelssohn (Turf = 13.3%) is the sire of this Peter Brant homebred filly whose dam is by Smart Strike. Mom won once in five tries and banked a mere $17,000. She’s thrown three other foals of racing age, one that earned over $100K and one that won first out while a 2YO. Today’s runner will be making her debutant performance and trainer Chad Brown (M = 1/11, 9.1%) has been prepping her exclusively at Churchill Downs with 14 workouts (54 furlongs) dating back to the end of May, however, her times have not been eye-popping. Prat will manage the reins.
Final Analysis – Walsh is 0 for 9 at the year’s meet with babies in MSW races, so I have to believe that he saddles a winner today with my pick, #1 El Joury. Shadwell went big for this gal and her mom was an excellent runner and scored while a 2YO on the grass and has also been quite productive in the breeding shed. As my Edgies know, I’m always excited about horses that sell at the top of their class and when it’s the Medaglia d’Oro class, I take special notice! Lastly, she gained important experience from her intial start and her last work indicates that she’s sharp – and Tyler certainly gives her a boost.
KD6:091124 – One Mile on the Turf. 13 colts are entered, 12 will start. Three are firsters, seven have made one start, one has been out twice, and one has raced three times, previously…
#3 – Power of Will (6/1) – First-year sire, War of Will, is the pops of this colt and he’s already produced five winners on the grass from 23 starters (21.7%), covering four different tracks, and three of the wins have been at a mile or more. Mom is by Tapit and she found the Winner’s Circle six times in the 31 affairs that she competed in, cashing in for $180K in purse money. She’s thrown six other foals of racing age, half that have won north of $100K and one that was a victorious 2YO. This gal brought a bid of $80,000 as a yearling (34/67), but then failed to meet his reserve of $105K earlier this year as a two-year-old. He’ll be making his first start and HOF trainer Bill Mott (M = 1/4, 25%) has had him out on eight mornings, all at Churchill Downs (30 furlongs). His best work was likely his second – on 7/27/24 he covered three poles in 36 seconds flat (3/25). Jaime Torres will slip his boots into the irons.
#6 – Fleming (7/5 ML fav) – The late More Than Ready is the sire and this colt is a homebred from Godolphin. Mom (by Distorted Humor) was a fine race mare having won four of her 12 starts, including a third-place finish in a G2 race, and brought home $224K in purse money. She’s thrown three other foals of racing age, but none have done well on the track, yet. Brendan Walsh (M = 7/30, 23.3%, $4.24) conditions this guy who has run once – he finished in third place last month at ELP. Walsh has given him two morning works since his race and his last was a bullet – 36.4 seconds for 3/8th of a mile at Turfway Park (1/15). Tyler will get the leg up for the first time.
#7 – Lucky Mischief (9/2) – Yoshida, who now stands in Japan, is the stallion behind this colt who is a homebred from Winstar Farm and a partner. His mom was 0 for 2 as a racer, she’s by Into Mischief, and this is her first foal. Trainer Dallas Stewart saddled his first 2YO in a MSW event here at KY Downs earlier this meet in at least the last five years and it finished fourth. This fella has been out in the afternoon on two previous occasions, both at Ellis Park. His first effort was on dirt and it didn’t go well, so Brendan moved him to the turf last out and he gained some ground to finish fourth of ten runners. Since that last run, he worked a half-mile at CD. Luis Saez will try his hand with this colt today.
#9 – Reverse Merger (8/1) – This colt will be making his second start for trainer Norm Casse who is looking for his first win at this level at Kentucky Downs in at least the last five years (he’s started two, previously). Sired by Into Mischief (Turf = 16%), his dam is by Awesome again. She only won one start from nine tries and cashed in for $67,000. This is her third foal of racing age – the other two have not yet shown much. His first race at a mile on the lawn at ELP, he started slow, but finished with enthusiasm to end in fourth place, less than four lengths shy of the victor. Norm has given him one breeze since his start. Florent will pilot him for the first time.
Final Analysis – I’m going to fade the heavy favorite, #6, but what I stated above about Walsh worries me a bit – bottom line, my pick is #3 Power of Will. His daddy’s offspring have been beasts on the lawn and Mott doesn’t typically start his juveniles here at KD unless they are ready. Mom won six times and has thrown solid individuals. He’s worked slightly faster than most of Mott’s firsters, so I’m gonna give him a shot at odds of 6/1 on the ML.
Kentucky Downs has been a challenge, but hopefully we’ll get a winner today. Also, I’m looking forward to the short September Meet at Churchill. Thanks for all that you do. Take care and stay safe, my Edgie Faithful.
