Keeneland, Race 8 Wednesday, October 23, 2024
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By The 2YO EdgeMan
KEE8:102324 – Six and one-half Furlongs on the Dirt. 16 colts are entered, but only 12 will start. Seven of these guys are firsters, three have started once and two have been out two times previously.
#1 – Harvest n’Hearth (15/1) – First-Crop Sire, McKinzie (15 winners from 52 starters, including two winners last week here at KEE), is this colt’s pops and his winless mom is by Malibu Moon (BM = 12.8%). In the breeding shed, she’s produced five other foals of racing age and one has eclipsed the $100K earnings threshold and one won at first asking as a two-year-old. The hammer price last year for this guy as a yearling was $285K (16/120) and he’ll be making his debut for Derby-winning trainer, Kenny McPeek (5/59, 8.5%; FTS = 3/24, 12.5%). To prep for this race, this fella has put in nine works (31 furlongs) with a bullet on 7/18/24 at Churchill when he went three panels in 36.2 seconds (1/19). Brian Hernandez, Jr. will tickle the leather.
#4 – Touchy (8/5 ML Fav) – The Wesley Ward (M = 38.1%) sends out this colt by Nyquist (ALL = 18.3%; Dirt = 21.3%). He’s a homebred from Three Chimney Farm and his dam is also by Malibu Moon (BM = 12.8%). She won one of her three races, netted $46,000 in purse money, and has tossed five other foals of racing netting, three that have won north of $100K and two that won as juveniles. This dude has run twice on the Saratoga main oval this summer – both in stakes affairs, with the most recent being a G2 event. In his debut, he led til late but was caught and finished second, less than two lengths shy of the winner. Next out, again at odds of less than 2/1, he stalked the pace but didn’t have a closing kick, ending fourth, five-plus lengths shy. Since that race, he’s worked at KEE five times (three were at 5/8th of a mile) and has posted two bullet moves. Joel Rosario will be aboard for the third time.
#8 – Hitchcock (6/1) – Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%; Dirt = 17.3%) and a Wildcat Heir (BM = 11.1) mare teamed up to produce this colt who sold for $550K as a yearling (9/43). Mom was three-for-14 on the track, including a win in her third start at two, and brought home $141K in prize money. She has two other foals of racing age who have not yet accomplished a lot. This fella ran last month on the dirt at Churchill and moved well late finishing in the show position, less than two lengths behind the victor. Since then he’s put in three half-mile spins, his last two at Keeneland. Peter Eurton (no starts at this meet over the previous five years) has asked Luis Saez to be in the saddle again.
#9 – Can Do Andrew (15/1) – This colt is a homebred who is conditioned by Doug Anderson (M = 0/3) and he’s by Practical Joke (ALL = 16.5%; Dirt = 18.2%). His Iowa-bred mama is by Majestic Warrior and she was one-for-three in her brief racing career with earnings of $41,000. She has two other foals of racing age – one has banked over $100K. This dude has raced one time – he debuted in a stakes race at Praire Meadows and was second of ten throughout, ultimately falling three lengths short. He’s fit in one drill over the KEE oval since that race and will be guided by Francisco Arrieta.
#10 – Original Sin (7/2) – One of the seven First-Time starters in the field, this colt is a Calumet Farm homebred by Curlin (ALL = 13.6%; Dirt = 14.9%; FTS = 12.9%). Unbridled’s Song (12.9%) is his broodmare sire and mom was winless in two starts, but she’s tossed four others of racing age and one of them banked the equivalent of $890K in Japan and another was a debut winner as a baby. Today’s runner comes from the operation of Brad Cox (M = 28.1%; FTS = 26.3%) and he’s been patient with him, pumping 16 works into him for a total of 69 furlongs (six of the last seven have covered 5/8th of a mile). On 10/5/24 at ELP, he went 5f in 1:01.2 to earn a bullet (1/20). Florent will slip his boots into the irons.
Final Analysis – The #1 is enticing in that he sold in the top 15% of a fine Newby sire’s class and his runners have performed excellent at the current meet. #10 is also very interesting as Cox does well with firsters here at KEE in the fall, but my pick is #4 Touchy. As you know, I prefer not to finger the favorite, but this guy brings a lot to the table. Ward is so tough here in the fall and Nyquist is one of my favorite stallions. The fact that he’s only competed in stakes races (beaten by only Studlydoright in his debut) puts me over the edge. Let’s give him a roll at short odds.
I’ll likely focus on the Sunday card at Churchill for the remainder of the week as they host their ‘Stars of Tomorrow’ card that will include many of ‘our races’. So, please be on the lookout for that and take care and be safe, my Edgie Warriors.
