Keeneland Race Course, Race 3 Saturday, October 19, 2024
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By The 2YO EdgeMan
KEE3:101924 – Five and a half furlongs on the Turf. 16 are entered, but only 12 will walk into the gate. Nine of those twelve are colts, two are geldings, and there is one lone filly. Half of the field are firsters, two have started once, two have made two runs, one has been out on three occasions, and one experienced dude has already raced four times.
#2 – Restore (5/1) – This colt is a French-bred by Uncle Mo (ALL = 16.5%; Turf = 17.2%) and he’s out of a War Front (BM = 13.0) mare who only ran twice, but scored in her first start at age two (on the lawn), winning $29,000. She has two other foals of racing age – both are unraced. Last year, he sold for $100K as a yearling (53/75) and was wheeled back earlier this year as a 2YO for $150K (13/20). He’s started twice – his first was at The Spa on the dirt and he didn’t run a bit. Next out, at Kentucky Downs, he made the lead in a 6f sprint but was caught late and finished fourth, less than four lengths behind the winner. Since then, trainer Dallas Stewart (M = 2/22, 9.1%) has put him through his morning paces four times over at Churchill Downs and he accomplished two of those half-mile breezes in less than 48 seconds (15/87 and 3/10). Luis Saez will tickle the leather for the first time.
#5 – Hit That Review (3/1) – From the barn of Brendan Walsh (M = 6/42, 14.3%), this colt is a son of No Nay Never (ALL = 7/47, 14.9%; Turf = 4/40, 10.0%). His mama is an unraced Machiavellian mare that has thrown eight other foals of racing age. This colt was sold overseas and brought $166,594 last year when this lad was a yearling (41/81). He has made three previous starts, all sprinting on the lawn and he’s never been out of the money. Walsh has given him two morning spins on the All-Weather surface at TP since his last race and goes back to Tyler to ride him for the second time.
#8 – Jack’s Promise (6/1) – First-Crop sire, Promises Fulfilled (4 winners from 13 starts) is the stallion responsible for this homebred colt and he’s out of a Malibu Moon (BM = 12.8%) mare who was 0-for-5 on the racetrack. Mom has tossed two other foals of racing age – her three-year-old won last year as a juvenile in her second start at Saratoga. This guy has made two starts – the first on the CD dirt was terrible, but then when he moved to grass last out at Saratoga he came arunning and finished less than two lengths shy of the victor and claimed the runner-up’s share of the purse. Since then, he’s put in four half-mile works at CD – his last was done in 47.8 seconds (10/47). Junior Alvarado gets the return assignment to pilot him.
#10 – Caribbean Wind (2/1 ML fav) – Wes Ward (M = 8/21, 38.1%, ROI = 2.26) will send out this filly for her first race in nearly six months when she made her debut on the dirt at Keeneland and finished second as the overwhelming odds on favorite. She’s by Speightstown (ALL = 18.1%; Turf = 22.4% and hails from an unraced Bernardini (BM = 12.6%) mare – this filly is her first foal. $385K was the final, winning bid on this gal as a yearling. Ward put her back into training in mid-September here at Keeneland and she’s been out on five mornings, totaling 21 furlongs. Her times have been solid, but not terribly rapid. Irad, who rode her in the spring, will get the leg up from WW.
Final Analysis – The #10 horse could run off and win this thing – Ward certainly loves Keeneland. However, I think that she’ll be overbet – so, my pick is #2 Restore. Uncle Mo is a fine sire of babies and this guy certainly indicated that he prefers that surface based on his last race. I especially like that mom won at first asking on the grass while a juvey and she screams ‘turf’, particularly being from War Front. His two sharp works since his last run are also encouraging. Let’s give him a shot!
Race 3 at Keeneland on Sunday is one of our events and I’ll have all the scoop on it for you on Past The Wire, so please check it out. As always, Thank YOU – I appreciate each and every one of my Fantabulous Edgies. Take care and stay safe.
