Keeneland, Race 5 Thursday, October 17, 2024
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By The 2YO EdgeMan
KEE5:101724 – Seven Furlongs on the Dirt. 12 dudes are entered – 11 colts and one gelding. Four of these guys are firsters, four have started once and four have been out two times previously.
#2 – Successful Union (15/1) – This colt is by Union Rags (ALL = 9.7%; Dirt = 10.7%) and was thrown by a Candy Ride mare (BM = 12.7%) that was two-for-eleven during her racing days and netting $125K in purse money. She’s produced four other foals for racing age, two that have won north of $100K and two that won as juveniles. In the auction ring, this guy brought $110K last year as a yearling (2/62). He has been out one time in the afternoon – in mid-September he ran at Horseshoe IND and sprinted on the dirt. He languished at or near the back of the pack, but woke up in the stretch and finished only three lengths back in fourth place. Since then, trainer Eion Harty (0/3 at the 2024 KEE Fall Meet and no starters in the previous five years) has given him two works over at Turfway Park. Prat will ride him for the first time today.
#3 – Uncle Jim (3/1 ML fav) – Brad Cox (M = 28.1%; FTS = 26.3) will tighten the girth on this colt who is debuting for his sire City of Light (ALL = 15.2%; Dirt = 16.2%). His mom (by Tiznow – BM = 10.9%) was winless in two attempts and she’s tossed five other foals of racing age – one has earned $100K+ and one was victorious as a baby. $240K was the hammer price last year when this dude was a yearling (11/66). He’s worked 13 times (54 furlongs) and four of his last six drills have covered 5/8th of a mile. His best morning effort was two back under the Twin Spires when he went 5f in 59.6 seconds (2/19). Florent will be his pilot.
#9 – Speechless (9/2) – This Peter Blum homebred is by Street Sense (ALL = 15.0%; Dirt = 16.7%) and is out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare (BM = 14.2%). Mama’s record on the track was two-for-23 with $195K in earnings and she’s had one other foal of racing age that hasn’t had any success yet. This guy has been out twice – both times on the dirt and both times he had a few excuses, but didn’t finish well in either. He’s tested the Keeneland surface twice since his last outing and drill well. Conditioner Rudolphe Brissett (M = 6/22, 27.3%, ROI = $3.25) has made the call to Jose to guide him for the first time.
Final Analysis – As of this writing, Brad Cox has yet to win one of our races here at Keeneland during this Fall Meet and he’s always dangerous. His horse in this one – #3 – worked with Patch Adams on 10/4/24 when he went 5f in 59.6 seconds, which is certainly a strong move. However, it didn’t look like he could stay up with his workmate and that one just debuted last Friday. Patch Adams set some fast fractions, but faded to third. So, my pick is #9 Speechless. I like Brisset and he’s three-for-six (50%) with an ROI of $4.43 at this meet with babies that have two or more starts. I’m encouraged by this lad’s works over today’s strip and look for him to step forward.
