Keeneland, Race 4 Sunday, October 13, 2024
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By The 2YO EdgeMan
KEE4:0101324 – One and 1/16th miles on the Turf. The fillies take center stage and we’ve got a full slate of 16 that are entered, but of course, only 12 will start. Three will make their debut today, six have started once, and three have been out on two previous occasions.
#7 – Necessity (4/1 ML fav) – From the barn of Norm Casse (M = 1/14, 7.2%), this filly’s sire is Constitution (ALL = 14.6%; Turf = 9.9%). Her dam, by Into Mischief (BM = 10.5%) won two of her six starts and banked $88,000 – she also came in second in a G3 event. This is her first foal. She’s been out one time before – on 9/1/24 she ran at Kentucky Downs in a 7f event and rated on the inside before moving up to third at the head of the lane and she hung on for the show money, about 6 ½ lengths shy of the winner. Since then she’s worked twice at CD, both at a half-mile. She stopped the watch in her last in 47.2 seconds (5/82). Florent, who rode her in her debut, gets the return engagement.
#10 – Bright Lady (15/1) – The first of two in this affair from the First-Crop sire from Spendthrift Farm, Authentic (13 winners from 58 starters), this filly hails from an Uncle Mo mare (BM = 20.0%). Mom was one-for-eight and banked $112K – this is her first foal. In the sales ring, this filly failed to bring her minimum of $235K last year as a yearling. Today’s runner will be making her debutant performance and has worked 13 times (40 furlongs) for trainer Whit Beckman (M = 1/2, 50%) – her times have not been fast. Luis Saez will tickle the leather.
#12 – Lady Authentic (8/1) – As the name implies, this filly is the second one in the field from Authentic (13 winners from 58 starters). Her unraced mama is by Tiznow (BM = 10.9%) and she’s tossed one other foal of racing age – a 3YO by Into Mischief that has already earned north of $100K on the racetrack. This gal didn’t meet her reserve of $210K as a yearling. She’s run one time previously – at CD on 9/20/24 she ran over the dirt at the distance of 6f. She ran midpack til they neared the head of the stretch where she tailed off, finishing a well-beaten last place. Conditioner Chad Brown (M = 3/21, 14.3%) has given her one drill since her run – a half-mile spin at CD. Tyler will manage the riding duties for the second time.
Final Analysis – Although the ML odds of #10 and #12 are enticing, my pick is #7 Necessity. Her mama could do some running and I think that she’ll benefit from her prior race at KD. Additionally, I’m encouraged by the last workout that she had over the CD strip. Florent should know her now and I think that she’ll like the added distance of this event.
We’ll be back with you next week as KEE has one of our races scheduled for Thursday – so be on the lookout on www.PastTheWire.com for my breakdown of that affair. Take care and be well, my Edgie Partners.
