Ellis Park, Race 6 & 7 – Monday, July 29, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
ELP6:072924 – One Mile on the Dirt. 12 fillies are entered. The number of FTSers = 4 and eight that have started once.
#3 – Peanut Gallery (5/1) – This FTS filly is trained by Brad Cox (M = 24.6%; FTS = 21.2%) and she is sired by Bernardini (ALL = 10.7%; FTS = 8.2%). Her dam, by Medaglia d’Oro never raced but has produced the 3YO F – West Omaha (2/6, $369K) – who scored in her second race at two at CD in November with an EBSF of 92. To prep for today’s debut, Brad has sent this gal out for eight works (32f), with her last two coming at 5/8th of a mile. Her best was probably on 6/29/24 when she went 48.2 for a half mile from the gate (13/120). Florent will have the assignment to ride.
#7 – Totally Justified (9/2) – It’s no surprise that this filly hails from the mighty Justify (ALL = 20.2%, FTS = 21/94, 22.3%) and her broodmare sire is Europe’s powerful Galileo. Mom banked $180K by logging a race record of 2/10 and she’s thrown two others, one that has cashed in on the track for $664K (4/27). This filly sold in the top half of her class when she went for $285K as a yearling last fall (29/70). Crafty trainer Rusty Arnold (M = 8.2%; 2nd time starters = 1/6, 16.7%) saddled her for her first race back on 6/28/24 at CD (6f on the dirt). On that day, she stayed in the top five and then finished reasonably to cross the wire in fourth, two lengths behind the victor. Arnold has pumped two solid, 4f works into her since her run, both at KEE. She’ll get the upgrade to Tyler today.
#11 – Runnin N Gunnin (10/1) – Steve Asmussen (M = 10.1) will tighten the girth on this filly who, as her name implies, is by Gun Runner (ALL = 19.8%), out of an unraced Empire Maker mare that has produced five other foals of racing age. One filly was 5/16 with $623K earned, including a win in her first start at BEL in October of her 2YO campaign of which she went on to add two G3 scores before she turned three. Another filly was 4/11 with $210K in purse money, earning black-type status. Douglas Scharbauer gave $250K for this gal as a yearling (36/63). To get ready for today’s debut, Steve has overseen nine drills totaling 39 furlongs – in fact, her last five have covered 5/8th of a mile. Her fastest move may have been her first – back in late May she went three poles in 36.2 (6/27). Steve’s son, Erik, will get the leg up from pops.
Final Analysis – Let’s go for a price in this one! My pick is #11 Runnin N Gunnin at ML odds of 10/1. Although Steve’s numbers at ELP aren’t as high as most other venues, never discount him. This guy is a Gun Runner by a dam that has thrown some other very nice, early maturing horses and he has a deep bottom from all the morning work.
ELP7:072924 – 6f on the Dirt. A full complement of 16 colts has been entered, but of course, there is only room for 12 to start. 11 are First-Time starters and only one has made one previous start.
#2 – Mesero (5/1) – This FTS colt hails from Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; FTS = 20.3%) and was thrown by a mare by Exchange Rate who was 1/5 earning $68,000, but that lone score was here at SAR in July of her 2YO campaign when she posted an EBSF of 85. She’s tossed four other foals of racing age. One was the G1 winning filly – Bleecker Street – who won seven of the eight races that she ran, earning a top EBSF of 112. The final bid for today’s contestant came from CJ Thoroughbreds last year when she was a yearling and it was for $535K (8/62). Dale Romans (M = 21.7%, ROI = $2.09; FTS = 13.8%) has been training this gal up to today’s launch with eight morning moves / 32 furlongs. Her best was on 6/28/24 when she went in 47.2 for a half mile (4/128). Dale gives Corie Lanerie the jockey duties.
#12 – East Avenue (3/1 ML fav) – Brendan Walsh (M = 8.5%; FTS = 8.9%) conditions this Godolphin homebred filly by Medaglia d’Oro (ALL = 14.6%; FTS = 11.4%). She is out of an unraced Ghostzapper mare, but her second dam is the great – Dance Card (4/7, $502K, G1). Today’s runner is her dam’s first foal and she’ll be making her debutant performance. Walsh has given her seven morning breezes, totaling 25 furlongs. Back on 6/14/24, she earned a bullet by going three poles in 35.8 (1/37) and on 6/28/24 she blitzed 4f in 47.4 from the gate (3/81). Tyler will be the dude in charge.
Final Analysis – I just learned that #12 is an early scratch, so my pick is #2 Mesero. Her daddy has been on fire and Romans knows his way to the Winner’s Circle.
