Ellis Park, Race 4 – Monday, July 15, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
ELP4:071524 – 7f on the Dirt. 8 fillies are entered. The number of FTSers = 3, two that have started once, and three that have made three starts.
#2 – American Women (6/1) – A daughter of Constitution (ALL = 14.6%), this filly comes from a dam by Smart Strike who only found the Winner’s Circle one time in the 11 starts and brought home $78,000. She’s tossed four other foals of racing age and one of those won in his seventh start while a 2YO in November at CD, but he did also finish first early that year, but was DQed sending him back into the maiden ranks (and he’s already banked $367K). Today’s filly sold for $280K as a yearling (23/66) to the powerful ownership group of X-Men Racing, Madaket Stables, and SF Bloodstock. Trainer Brendan Walsh (8.5%) will saddle her for her second start having previously run on 6/7/24 at CD. On that day, she went off at odds of 5/1 and led early after breaking along the fence. She clipped off the first quarter under pressure in 22 flat and went the first half in 45.1. Walsh has given her three half mile breezes since her last run. Cristian Torres gets the opportunity to pilot her again today.
#3 – Murphy Girl (5/2) – This filly is trained by Dale Romans and is sired by Debut sire, War of Will (two winners so far), and she was thrown by a Curlin mare. Although mama was winless in three attempts as a racer, she has produced one other foal of racing age – a 3YO filly who has won one of her four starts and has earned $74,000. In the sales ring, this gal brought $50,000 as a yearling (47/67) and then was wheeled back as a 2YO for $180K (2/14). This filly has the experience of two races and has been the bridesmaid both times. Dale has injected three 4f works into her since her last afternoon effort – her last was done in a snappy 47.8 (12/144). Martin Chuan will climb into the saddle again today.
#5 – My Sweet Love (6/1) – Is a homebred from Three Chimneys Farm that is sired by Gun Runner (ALL = 19.8%; FTS = 20.6%). Her mama never raced and this is her first foal. Also, mom is a ½ sis to Gun It (5/39, $645K). Trainer Steve Asmussen (M = 10.1%; FTS = 6.5%) has been prepping her for her debut performance with eight works totaling 33 furlongs, including three of her last four over 5/8th of a mile. Derby champ, Brian Hernandez, Jr. gets the call to ride.
#6 – Lady Kathryn (2/1 ML fav) – Future star, Riley Mott (M = 2/26, 7.7%) conditions this filly who will be making her second start. In her first afternoon try she was only beaten by one length at CD and finished thired. Her sire is Liam’s Map (ALL = 10.4%; Non-FTS = 13.7%) and her dam, by Scat Daddy, was 1/9 with $71,000 in purse money. This is her first foal. Today’s runner hammered smartly for $300K as a yearling (2/91). Riley has put two works into her since her run and her first back was nifty as she covered a half mile in 46.6 (3/68). Alex Achard gets the return engagement in the irons.
Final Analysis – Mott’s charge (#6) is certainly a deserving favorite and I’m also partial to Gun Runner babies (#5), but my pick is #2 American Women. I selected her in her initial race back in early June and she ran out of gas deep into the race, but I think that experience will prep her well for this seven furlong affair. I’m encouraged that she’s had the opportunity to work three times since her race and I believe that she’ll carry her speed further today, hopefully all the way to the wire.
Saratoga has a good one carded for Thursday, so be sure to always sign onto www.PastTheWire.com as you certainly don’t want to miss anything that Jon and the crew have to say. Take care everyone, and thank you very much for all of your support of Baby Talk.
