Churchill Downs, Race 10 Sunday, September 29, 2024
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By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD10:092924 – Six furlongs on the Dirt. 12 fillies are entered and set to compete. Eight are firsters, two have started once, and a pair of them have two races under their belt.
#5 – Lady Liberty (6/1) – Constitution (ALL = 14.6%; Dirt = 16.7%) is the stallion behind this filly who is out of an Indian Charlie (BM = 14.5%) mare. Mama fashioned a four-for-19 race record, earned a hefty $425K, and finished second in a G3 affair. She’s tossed four other foals of racing age, half of them have won north of $100K, however, she’s yet to toss a 2YO winner. Last year, this gal was attractive in the auction ring and hammered for $625K (8/66). This filly will be making her debutant performance today for trainer Cherie DeVaux (M = 1/12, 8.3%). In prep, she’s worked nine times – 35 furlongs – with her last eight coming at Keeneland. She has been impressive in the mornings as four of her five half mile spins at KEE were done in less than 48 seconds, including a bullet move on 9/13/24 of 47.4 (1/28). Derby champ, Brian Hernandez, Jr. has the assignment.
#7 – Souk Plaza (2/1 ML fav) – Another firster, this Godolphin homebred filly is by Street Boss (ALL = 13.1; Dirt = 13.6%). Her dam is a half to the fabulous Street Sense and she’s by Bernardini (BM = 12.6). She only scored once on the track from 13 runs and banked a light total of $23,000. She’s thrown two other foals of racing age, one is Encino who is now three-for-four with $378K in the bank and a G3 trophy on his mantle. This filly will be making her first start today for hometown conditioner, Brad Cox (M = 22.2%). She’s been through her morning paces on fourteen occassions (57 furlongs) and her times have been eye-catching. She was especially impressive last out on the Churchill oval when she covered a half mile in 46.4 seconds (1/87). Florent will be her guide.
#10 – Paris Lily (6/1) – Brendan Walsh (M = 3/37, 8.1%) will tighten the girth on this filly who comes by way of a cross of City of Light (ALL = 15.2; Dirt = 12/74, 16.2%) and a winless, 20YO Storm Cat (BM = 10.6%) mare. Mom had been busy in the breeding shed over the years having tossed 13 other foals of racing age. Two of her offspring have eclipsed the $100K earnings mark and three have won as two-year-olds. This gal will be making her debut after putting in 15 drills (61 furlongs), including four of her last six over 5/8th of a mile – her times have been on the modest side. Tyler will have the reins in his hands.
#11 – Princess Em Too (15/1) – Another homebred and First-Time starter, this filly hails from the precocious Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; 23.3%). Her dam is a product of Midshipman (BM = 14.1%) and she was a fine race mare having been victorious four times in her 18 tries, including a win first out and a second in a G2 event while age two. In later years she tacked on a win at the G2 level and ended with $456K in the back. She only has one other foal of racing age – a 3YO filly who is three-for-five with $78,000 in money earned. Phil D’Amato (M = 1/2, 50.0%) has been managing this competitor’s young career and he’s been getting her ready to run by giving her 14 works, totaling 57 furlongs, and her last four have covered five poles. Her times have not been fast, but it is interesting that her second-ever drill went in 36.4 seconds at Keeneland on 6/23/24 (3/26). Martin Garcia will be in the saddle.
Final Analysis – It’s very hard not to go with #5 or #7, but I’m going to chase a price one more time with my pick is #11 Princess Em Too. Sire = Not This Time, check; Dam = very precocious, check; Trainer = a win in two starts her at CD in September at this level from 2019 thru 2023, check; Works = plenty of bottom under her. Does that add up to being worth a shot at 15/1 on the ML? Yes, it is for me.
Well, this concludes the September Meet at Churchill, but I gigged for the doors to open at Keeneland on Friday and it’s been a terrific month. Plus, the babies will be back under the Twin Spires in early November. So, please enjoy this race and get strapped in for some wonder fall racing in Lexington. Take care, be well, and stay positive, my Edgie Army.
