Churchill Downs, Races 4 & 7 Saturday, September 28, 2024
For information on Past The Wire’s annual Breeders’ Cup Seminar, the very best in the game CLICK HERE
By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD4:092824 – Six Furlongs on the Dirt. 12 dudes are entered, 11 colts and one gelding. 11 are firsters and one has started one time previously.
#7 – Vermelho (8/1) – Belladonna Racing picked up this colt by Constitution (ALL = 14.6%; Dirt = 16.7%) last year at the yearling sales for $450K (11/66) and they have since added a partner. Mom, by Hard Spun (BM = 13.8%), only scored once in the six starts that she made, but that one was a victory second out while a juvenile. She also ran third in a G3 event at age two and finished her racing career with $83,000. In the breeding shed, she has thrown six other foals of racing age and half of them have earned over $100K, including one that has won $600K and one that has banked $1.4 million. Also, three of six won while babies. This guy will be making his debut and in prep he has drilled 12 times, all at Ellis Park for a total of 45 furlongs. His work times have been quite solid, yet not spectacular. Trainer Cherie DeVaux (M = 1/12, 8.3%) has put the call out to Jose to be the pilot.
#9 – Mischievous Time (7/2 ML fav) – The terrific Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; Dirt = 23.3) is this colt’s daddy and his unraced dam comes by way of Orientate (BM = 10.9%). Mama has been busy producing seven other foals of racing age, two that have won more than $100K and two that won as two-year-olds. Today’s runner is a homebred by Amanda Pope and he’ll be making his first start. Conditioner Steve Asmussen (M = 8/69, 11.6%) has overseen his nine workouts (38 furlongs), all here under the Twin Spires and they’ve been solid, but not ‘lights out’ fast. Son Erik will be on board.
#10 – Atlal (4/1) – HOFer Bill Mott (M = 2/16, 12.5%) will tighten the girth for the first time under this colt who is a Juddmonte homebred by Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%; Dirt = 17.3%). His dam never sat foot on the racetrack in the afternoon and this is her first foal – she’s sired by Malibu Moon (BM = 12.8%). This guy started his work on 6/25/24 up at SAR and he’s completed all eight of his morning moves over the Oklahoma oval (30 furlongs). His most recent was a small bullet over 5f – 1:01.45 breezing from the gate (1/4). Tyler will tickle the leather.
Final Analysis – There is plenty to like about the #9 and #10, but my pick is #7 Vermelho. I’m more excited about this guy than I have been for quite a while. DeVaux has done extremely well at the 2YO MSW level with Belladonna owner runners and this guy’s mom was precocious. Couple that with his dad’s success with babies and this fella certainly warrants close attention. Jose is a plus, too.
CD7:092824 – Six Furlongs on the Dirt. 13 guys are entered, only 12 will race, and they are all colts. Eight will be making their debut, three have been out one time, and on has started three times.
#5 – Preposition (10/1) – This colt is a Winchell homebred and he’ll be making his second start today. By Tapit (ALL = 17.4%; 18.3%), he comes from a mare by Candy Ride (BM = 12.7%) who finished with a two-for-nine record on the track, netting $97,000. She’s produced four other foals of racing age and one of them scored first out as a 2YO. Steve Asmussen (M = 8/69, 11.6%) has been his manager and started his workout regimen here at Churchill where he was out on six morning occasions before shipping west to Ellis Park for four more spins for a total of 42 furlongs. His work times, which are pretty typical for Steve, have been average. Tyler gets tapped to ride.
#8 – Code of Justice (4/1) – BC Stables plunked down $850K on this colt by Into Mischief (ALL = 17.8%; 18.3%) as a yearling (18/69). Malibu Moon (BM = 12.8%) is his broodmare sire and his mom was a fine race mare having won five of 29 starts and $305K. She also finished second in a G2 affair and this is her first foal. In the first race, saddled by The Coach (M = 2/28, 7.1%), he made the lead, but couldn’t hold it on the turf up at SAR over five and a half furlongs. Ultimately, he finished 3 ½ lengths back in fifth of eight at odds of 9/1. Since that run, D. Wayne shipped him here to Churchill for three drills. Jaime Torres will be the man in the saddle for the first time.
#9 – Tswalu (7/2) – Phil Bauer (M = 4/10, 40.0%) saddles this FTS colt by Audible (ALL = 11.8%; Dirt = 12/76, 15.8%) who was thrown by an Uncle Mo (BM = 20.0%) mare. Mom won a mere $22,000 by going one for seven and she’s produced one other undistinguished foal of racing age. Rigney Racing went to $210K to purchase this lad a year ago at Keeneland (2/70). This guy knows the Churchill strip well after having drilled on it nine times (34 furlongs). He’s been working rapidly having been timed in less than 48 seconds four of his last five times going a half mile, including two in early/mid-September that he went in 47.2 seconds (1/131 and 3/105). Rafael Bejarano will be his jockey.
#12 – Framework (3/1 ML fav) – Speightstown (ALL = 18.1%; Dirt = 16.3%) is the stallion responsible for this colt who was paired with a winless Bernardini (BM = 12.6) mare. Mom has had four other foals of racing age – one has banked north of $100K. Today’s first-time starter is a homebred from Juddmonte Farms and he comes out of the Brad Cox (M = 22.5%; FTS = 20.5%) barn. This dude has worked 14 times – the first six were in Lexington at Keeneland, the next seven were at Ellis Park, and his most recent morning outing was over today’s oval at Churchill Downs – 54 furlongs). His fastest work was on 7/24/24 at KEE when he covered four poles in 47.4 seconds (2/20). Brad’s main man, Florent, will be responsible for the trip.
Final Analysis – Another solid field, but that’s a good thing in that it keeps the odds honest. My pick is #9 Tswalu. Bauer is tremendous at this meet with the babies and this dude has been working out like a world-beater. Audible’ juveys have been good on the dirt and Uncle Mo is one of the best damsires with the 2YOs. Additionally, he sold for the second most in his class and he’s been working very well.
Hopefully, the weather will be ok to race on Saturday – these two races are dandies. Churchill has carded one final 2YO MSW affair on Sunday – R10. Then, we move to Keeneland which is always fun! Thoughts and prayers to all whom the recent hurricane has impacted – stay safe and be well. Thank you!
