Churchill Downs, Race 4 Thursday, September 26, 2024
For information on Past The Wire’s annual Breeders’ Cup Seminar, the very best in the game CLICK HERE
By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD4:092624 – Five and one half furlongs on the Dirt. Nine dudes (eight colts and one gelding) are set to compete with eight of them being First-Time starters, the other one has started twice.
#1 – Pretty Capable (8/1) – Tapit (ALL = 17.4%; FTS = 14.6%) is the stallion behind this colt who comes by way of an Empire Maker (BM = 13.7%) mare. Mom only started twice, but she did find the Winner’s Circle in one of those outings, bringing home $43,000 in purse money – this is her first foal. The final bid last year when this lad was a yearling was $550K (10/37). Tom Amoss (M = 1/20, 5.0%) trains this firster and he’s made sure that he’s well schooled having sent him out in the morning for 15 drills (63 furlongs) with the last five covering 5/8th of a mile. His times have been solid, but not stunning. Cristian Torres will be the man in the saddle.
#2 – Troubleshooting (4/1) – This colt is a homebred from Donamire Farm and he’ll also be making his first-afternoon appearance. Greg Foley (M = 0/9) will tighten the girth on this fella who is by Not The Time (ALL = 20.6%; Dirt = 23.3%). His broodmare sire is Spendthrift Farm’s great Into Mischief (BM = 10.5%) and his dam sported a race record of three for 16 with a win in her second outing at two and banked $182K. She has one other foal of racing age – a 3YO filly who has already won north of $100K. Greg has put this guy through his paces in the morning ten times (37 furlongs), all here under the Twin Spires. Tyler gets the call to manage the reins.
#4 – Riddler (5/1) – The first of two colts in this one trained by Steve Asmussen (M = 8/69, 11.6%) will make his debut today for MyRaceHorse and their partner. Practical Joke (ALL = 16.5; Dirt = 18.2%) is his sire and his winless mom (in two starts) is by Indian Charlie (BM = 14.5%). She has seven other foals of racing age, two that have earned $100K+, two that won as juveniles, and one of those also ran third in a G1 at age two. Initially, this guy sold for $150K as a yearling (27/90), then he was pinhooked and brought $300K earlier this year as a two-year-old (6/29). Steve has only worked this colt six times (23 furlongs) with the last to coming at Ellis Park after his first four were here at Churchill. His last work was probably his best when he went handily from the gate and covered five furlongs is 1:01 flat (3/20). Derby hero, Brian Hernandez, Jr., will be his pilot.
#5 – Zat’s the One (12/1) – First-Crop sire, McKinzie, who has had eight winners from 45 starters, sired this colt who will be making his debut performance. Mama, by Speightstown (BM = 15.4%), was victorious in one of her four races and earned $28,000. In the breeding shed, she has had three other foals of racing age, but none of them yet has done much. $150K was the price tag in 2022 when he was a weanling (9/26), but he didn’t meet his reserve price of $195K as a yearling. Conditioner Phil D’Amato (M = 1/2; 50.0%) has been prepping him exclusively here at Churchill with nine morning spins totaling 38 furlongs and the last four have been of the 5/8th mile variety. Martin Garcia will get the leg up from Phil.
#7 – Perfect Magic – (3/1 ML fav) – Asmussen’s (M = 8/69, 11.6%) second entry is the one colt in the field with experience and he’s been out twice, both times on the grass. His first was a sprint of five and a half furlongs at ELP in mid-August and he ran well til late, finishing just over three lengths shy in fifth of ten. His most recent start was at Kentucky Downs on the last day of August and he also faded badly in that 6f affair. He’s received one work of a half mile since his last run. Yes It’s True (BM = 13.4%). His 20YO mom sported a record of five for 24 on the track with a win first time out when she was a baby and also notched a second-place finish in a G3 event as well as a third-place showing in a G2 race. She ended with nearly $1/4 million in prize money. She’s produced nine other foals of racing age – two that have earned north of $100K and two that won as juveys. This guy went through the auction ring last year as a yearling and demanded $300K (7/114). Steve’s son Erik, who has been on board for both of his previous starts will slip his boots into the irons.
#9 – Spiced Up (6/1) – Juddmonte Farms bred and retained ownership of this colt whose stallion is Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%; Dirt = 17.3%). His dam was 2/9 with a bankroll of $126K and she’s by Pioneerof The Nile (BM = 11.3%) and this is her first foal. HOFer Bill Mott (M = 2/16, 12.5%; FTS = 2/9, 22.2%) will sling the saddle across him for the first time in the afternoon. Bill started his prep work up at Saratoga on the Oklahoma Track back in late June and has given him all nine of his drills there (33 furlongs). This guy showed potential early when his second morning spin earned him a bullet – three panels in 36.44 seconds (1/18). Luis Saez will be his guide.
Final Analysis – As my Wonderful Edgies know, I’m a giant fan of Not This Time (#2) and Asmussen has two in here that are interesting. But my pick is #9 Spiced Up. I like it when a Mott shows early morning speed (presumably when he’s ‘seeing what they got’ and Quality Road is a solid sire. Juddmonte keeps their good foals and this one may be a dandy. ML odds of 6/1 are enticing and Luis is a fine reinsman.
Don’t sweat it as Churchill has two more of ‘our races’ on tap for tomorrow, another two on Saturday, and one more on Sunday. Then it’s on to Lexington and Keeneland’s Fall Meet, which starts on Friday. Enjoy this one and stay close as we are always excited to provide you with deep and thoughtful insight into the babies. Take care.
Note – ‘BM’ statistics reflect the Broodmare’s Win Percentage in 2YO MSW races with a purse of $30,000+ from 2012 through 2023.
