Churchill Downs, Race 7 Sunday, September 22, 2024
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By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD7:092224 – One Mile on the Dirt. 13 fillies are entered, but only 12 will start. Four are firsters, four have started once, three have been out on two previous occasions, and one has three races under her belt.
#2 – Claire’s Charm (8/5 ML fav) – Phillip Bauer (M = 4/10, 40.0%) trains this filly whose famous half-bro is a horse that you are familiar with – Muth (5/7, $1.6 million in earnings, first time out winner and a G1 winner at age two and three). Today’s gal’s daddy is Violence (ALL = 17.5%; Dirt = 18.9%) and her mom is out of Uncle Mo (BM = 20.0%). The bidding stopped at $385K for this filly when she was a yearling (3/53) and she’s raced one time back in August at The Spa in a 6f race on the dirt. She had a bit of a rocky break getting bumped and pinched off somewhat, but she ran on a few lengths off the pace before closing nicely to only get beat by ¾ of a length at odds of 8/5. Since then, Bauer oversaw a bullet work over a half mile that went in 47.2 seconds (1/23). She’s also drilled twice at Churchill, again at a half mile. Luis Saez gets the return assignment in the saddle.
#5 – California Sunset (3/1) – Quality Road (ALL = 16.4%; Dirt = 17.3%) is the proud papa behind this filly who is out of a Malibu Moon mare (BM = 12.8%) that went three for 10 on the track and banked $174K in purse money. This is her first foal of racing age. Today’s homebred filly from Mary and Gary West will make her debut performance today. Trainer Brad Cox (M = 22.2%) has pumped 11 works into her, the first five at Keeneland and the last six here under the Twin Spires for a today of 46 furlongs. On 8/30/24, she went 5/8th of a mile in 1:00.6 (2/18). Brad’s main man, Florent, gets the chance to ride.
#12 – Crimson Sun (12/1) – Green Lantern Stables plunked down $700K for this Curlin (ALL = 13.6%; Dirt = 14.9%) filly last year (6/39). Mama is out of a Malibu Moon mare (BM = 12.8%) that only won once in nine tries on the track with a meager $31,000 in earnings. She’s tossed four other foals of racing age – two have banked north of $100K and one was a second-out winner as a baby. Eddie Kenneally who won his first race last week at this level here at CD in September dating back to 2019 (22 starts) is the trainer. She’s had ten morning drills, all at Keeneland (41 furlongs), and she’s been moving her hooves. Last out, she zipped four panels in 47 seconds flat (3/12), and three back she covered 5/8th of a mile in 59.4 from the gate (1/2). Corie Lanerie will be her reinsman.
Final Analysis – This is another excellent race with some quality individuals expected to go to the post. I’d like to land on #12 with juicy ML odds of 12/1, but I can’t get past the effort that my pick #2 Claire’s Charm made in her first starter. Violence is a quality sire and Uncle Mo is an outstanding broodmare sire. Also, she’s been working gangbusters since her last run and Luis knows this gal from having had the mount last time out. Oh, and by the way, she’s a half to a pretty decent colt. The off odds are likely to be skinny and she’s got some competition, but I cannot pass her up.
Thank you for all of your support – it means a lot and I appreciate each and every one of my readers. Next week is our last full one at Churchill for this short meet, but then it’s on to Keeneland. Take care my Edgie Buds – stay safe and well.
