Churchill Downs, Race 5 Saturday, September 21, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD5:092124 – One Mile on the Dirt. 13 Colts are entered, but only 12 will start. Three of them are First-Time starters, six have raced one time previously, two have two starts, one experienced dude has been out three times already.
#1 – Rothko (7/2 ML fav) – This is the fabulous race mare Covfefe’s (by Into Mischief) second foal by Tapit (ALL = 17.4%; Dirt = 18.3%). All that mom did was win six times in her eight starts, including a debut score at age two, and two G1 victories, one being the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She also banked $1.1 million. Her first foal is a 3YO that has already won $102K with two stops in the Winner’s Circle in only four runs. Today’s colt is a homebred that has started once. On 7/20/24 at ELP, he bobbled at the start, made a bit of a run, but finished fourth, beaten by over 12 lengths. Since then, trainer Brad Cox (M = 22.2%) has put him to work in the morning five times at Ellis with his last two being bullet, 5f moves – 1:01 flat (1/29) and 1:01.4 (1/11). Cristian Torres get his first chance aboard him in the saddle.
#4 – Winning Fortune (20/1) – Hot conditioner, Kenny McPeek (M = 20.0%) will saddle this colt for the first time in an afternoon event. He’s sired by the Freshman sire, Game Winner, who has had only three winners from 30 starters. Mama is by Haynesfield and she netted $204K on the track with a record of seven for 30, with one of those scores coming in her third start as a juvey in a MCL affair. This is her first foal. $275K was what it took to bring this guy home from the Yearling Auction (4/73). McPeek has drilled him a dozen times (42 furlongs), starting at KEE then he went up to SAR for three breezes before returning for his most recent seven at Keeneland. He’s earned two solid bullets and one small one – most recently he logged a three furlong drill time of 35.4 seconds on 8/24/24 (1/18). Colby Hernandez will be his reinsman.
#7 – Heavenville (9/2) – The Heiligbrodt’s bred this colt, sold him at auction as a weanling for $250K (2/23) to Larry Best’s OXO Equine, then those two entities partnered together as owners. He is by First-Crop sire Instagrand (seven winners / 47 starters) and out of a mare by Street Sense. Mom was four for 21 on the track and banked $193K. She only has one other foal of racing age – a 3YO that won first out last year as a baby and has already earned north of $1/4 million. Conditioner Steve Asmussen has sent him for two previous races, both on the dirt at Ellis Park, and both resulted in 3rd place finishes. He led into the stretch last out but faded a bit. He’s been out in the morning at ELP twice at 4f since his last race. Son Erik has ridden him every time and will do so again today.
#8 – Limited Edition (8/1) – Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; Dirt = 23.3%) is the stallion behind this Godolphin homebred. He was thrown by a Street Sense mare that won once in 10 tries on the track and brought home $78,000 in purse money. This is her first foal and he’ll be making his first start today for Brendan Walsh (M = 8.1%). He’s put in significant work, having been out on 15 morning spins (59 furlongs). On 8/30/24, this lad drilled a half mile from the gate in 48 seconds flat at Turfway Park (3/57). Tyler will be his pilot.
Final Analysis – There is lots to like about both the #7 and #8 horse, but I’m afraid that they are running against a really good one – my pick is #1 Rothko. His breeding is impeccable and he’s trained by Cox. He lost a number of lengths at the break of his debut, but he didn’t appear bothered by it like many babies would. He’s worked very well since that outing and appears to be ready to roll.
The week is not over yet as Churchill has carded another one of ‘our races’ on Sunday. Enjoy this one, it should be a dandy. I appreciate all of you Edgie Sharpies – take care, stay safe, and be well.
