Churchill Downs, Race 4 Friday, September 20, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD4:092024 – Six and one half furlongs on the Dirt. 12 fillies are set to compete with nine First-Time starters in the field, the other three have only started once.
#3 – Ensorcell (12/1) – Not This Time (ALL = 20.6%; Dirt = 23.3%) is the stallion responsible for this filly who is out of a Smoke Glacken mare. Mama was a fantastic race mare having won at the G1 level, finishing with a record of six for 17, earning north of $1 million, and not only winning at first asking while a juvenile, but also scoring in two G2 events while still a two-year-old. She’s produced four other foals of racing age, however only one found the Winner’s Circle as a baby. Today’s runner is a homebred and will be making her debut performance. Trainer Ron Moquett (M = 3/15, 20%) has put her to work in the morning on 12 occasions (45 furlongs) dating back to mid-June and all of her activity has been over Churchill Down’s strip. She’s stopped the watch in less than 48 seconds twice over a half mile. Julien Leparoux will be her guide.
#4 – Contemplate (5/1) – This filly is a Godolphin homebred and she’ll be making her second start. Hard Spun (ALL = 11.7%; NonFTS = 13.5%) is her pops and her mom is by Pioneerof The Nile, was unraced, and this is her first foal. Her first start was at Ellis Park over six furlongs on the dirt. She started fast in that one and set the pace, but faded to finish 10+ lengths behind at the wire. Conditioner Eoin Harty (M = 0/1) has given her one work of 5f over at Turfway Park since her last effort. Luan Machado will get the leg up.
#10 – Stylet (7/2 ML fav) – Hometown dude, Brad Cox (M = 22.2%; FTS = 20.5%) will sling the saddle across this filly who is by First-Crop sire, Caracaro (five winners from just nine starters). Her dam is by Pass Rush and she won five races in 44 starts with earnings of $173K. She has only one other foal of racing age and that 3YO has had limited success so far. Today’s gal was picked up for the bargain price of $20,000 as a yearling (20/31) and was then pinhooked earlier this year as a 2YO for $225K (3/22). She’ll be making her first start today after breezing a dozen times (the first four at KEE and the most recent eight here at CD) for a total of 47 furlongs. She’s posted three bullet moves, including her 5f drill on 8/16/24 when she blazed in 59.0 flat (1/13). Brad taps Florent to be her saddleman.
#11 – Northern Voyage (6/1) – Another Freshman sire, McKinzie (eight winners from 44 starters), is the daddy of this filly who is from a winless Tapit mare. Mom has had two other foals of racing age, but their combined race record is 0 for 11. Today’s runner sold for the handsome sum of $475K last year as a yearling, making her the 5th most expensive in her class of 120 foals. She made her first and only start back on 8/3/24 at Ellis when she went 6f on the dirt. She was off slow and toiled at or near the back of the back for the first two-thirds of the race before finishing with some energy to end fifth, six lengths shy. Trainer Peter Eurton had not started any runners in these 2YO MSW events here at CD in September dating back to at least 2019 has done so twice this meet, but neither has found the Winner’s Circle. Since her last race, this filly has worked five times, all at The Training Center in Lexington, and she’s earned two nice bullets at four furlongs. Jose gets a chance in the irons for the first time.
Final Analysis – #10s workouts have been fantastic and we all know that Cox sleighs this meet with the babies. However, I’m going to chase a price as my pick is #3 Ensorcell. I feel confident that Moquett is gonna get a winner during this short meet and this filly is stamped with precocity. Nothing needs to be said about Not This Time and his mom was fabulous from the moment that she hit the track as a juvey. I was a tad surprised not to see more success from her siblings, but one did score as a 2YO. She’s been working with a stablemate named Fearless Lady and her exercise rider has not appeared to ask her for anything and she’s performed very nicely in her morning drills. 12/1 ML Odds? Heck ya, I’ll take a slice of that.
Churchill has another of the best kind of races booked for both Saturday and Sunday. I don’t need to tell you that we plan to dig into those for you, too. Thank you to all my Phenomenal Edgies – I appreciate you all!
