Churchill Downs, Race 5 Thursday, September 19, 2024
By The 2YO EdgeMan
CD5:091924 – Six and one half furlongs on the Dirt. 14 males are entered, 12 will start (11 colts and one gelding). Eight dudes are firsters, two have one start under their belt, one has been out twice, and the most experience goes to one fella who has three previous runs.
#4 – Admiral Dennis (7/2 ML fav) – This FTS colt is by Constitution (ALL = 14.6%; FTS = 17.0%) and is out of a Union Rags mare that won two of her four starts and $93,000, including a win at first asking as a two-year-old. This is her first foal. Today’s runner was a $425K yearling (13/66) and the hometown hero preps him, Brad Cox (M = 22.2%; FTS = 20.5%). He started his morning work in May at Keeneland where he was out seven times before vanning west on I-64 to Churchill for six more efforts (52 total works). His next-to-last work which covered 5/8th of a mile earned him a bullet – 59.6 seconds (1/61). Florent gets the call to ride.
#8 – Speed King (12/1) – Ron Moquett (M = 3/15, 20.0%) conditions this colt whose Freshman sire is Volatile (10 winners from 36 starters). Corinthian is the sire of his dam and she had a 3/19 record on the track with $38,000 earned. She has three other foals of racing age, but none have distinguished themselves yet. Today’s competitor has sold in the auction ring three times – when he was a weanling, the price was $85,000 (12/33). Last year, he hammered for only $30,000 as a yearling (80/99) and most recently he demanded six figures – $100K as a 2YO in training (11/32). This will be his debut performance and to prepare Ron has led him out to train here at Churchill eleven times (45 furlongs). His best was on 7/21/24 when he zipped a half mile in 47.4 seconds to earn a bullet (1/61). Tyler will have the reins handed to him.
#9 – Monsieur Big Man (6/1) – Another colt from Volatile is also another first-time starter. His dam won at first asking while still a baby and she went on to win two more victories in eight additional starts and banked $89,000. Mom is by Smart Strike and she has tossed five other foals of racing age, one filly has earned over $1/4 million. In the sales ring, today’s lad brought $110K in 2022 as a weanling (6/33) and then was pinhooked back the following year as a yearling and commanded $175K (19/99). Trainer Dale Romans has visited the Winner’s Circle twice already this September here at CD with juveniles in Maiden Specials, and that runs his total to 12 victories at this meet, dating back to 2019, for 53 starts in these races – 22.6.%. Dale has overseen his 13 works (50 furlongs), all here under the Twin Spires, and he’s been burning up the CD oval. He’s stopped the clock at under 48 seconds for a half mile five times since the end of June with his flashiest effort likely coming on 9/2/24 when he sped 4f in 47.2 seconds (1/32). Corey Lanerie will get the keys to drive.
#11 – Pride’s Prince (8/1) – Steve Asmussen (M = 11.6%; FTS = 12.9) will saddle this first-time starter whose stallion is Munnings (ALL = 14.0%; FTS = 13.2%). Malibu Moon is the dam sire and mama won two races from eight tries and brought home nearly $200K in purse money. Additionally, she won at first asking as a 2YO at Belmont Park and was also second in a G2 event while still a baby. In the breeding shed she’s produced four other foals of racing age – two have earned north of $100K and two were debut winners while juveniles. CJ Stables was the winning bidder last year when this guy was a yearling at $260K (23/92) and West Point Thoroughbreds has since brought into him. Seven works, dating back to late July, all here at Churchill add up to 30 furlongs. His best was likely his last when he sped five panels in 59.6 (3/8). Jose will be the pilot.
Final Analysis – I’d like to go with #8 and I don’t like to choose the ML fav, but my pick is #4 Admiral Dennis – he looks really good in so many areas. To start – trainer Brad Cox and sire Constitution. Mom was a winner the first time she stepped on the track as a baby and, although she had a short racing career, clearly she was talented. The Albaugh family buys quality runners and this lad has been working out like a beast. I’m willing to take a short price on him and then see if we can find a bit more value tomorrow.
Speaking of tomorrow, Friday’s Race #4 is our kind of event. We’ll be all over it, so check back into PastTheWire.com. Enjoy this one and take care and stay well, my Outstanding Edgies.
