With Geaux Rocket Ride (outside) and Slow Down Andy locked in a duel, Arabian Knight powers to the finish in the Pacific Classic to win by a neck (Ernie Belmonte/Past The Wire)
By Laura Pugh
Entering 2023, Bob Baffert’s Arabian Knight was viewed as the leading contender for his division, even over Forte, especially after his tour de force in the Southwest Stakes. Unfortunately, Arabian Knight suffered a setback that benched him for six months.
His return in the Haskell wasn’t the crowning most expected. Arabian Knight finished a tired third after pressuring a hot pace, leading to rumblings that he might have been overrated. Defenders argued that it was his first race in six months, third race overall, and with those things considered, he still ran well.
This past Saturday, in the Pacific Classic, he rewarded those that had faith, coming through with a gutsy win over the very horse that defeated him in the Haskell. Geaux Rocket Ride. Despite this, critics say the time was too slow and that the win was hardly impressive, given how hyped he was at the beginning of the year.
So, which is it? Is Arabian Knight that good, and he’s just getting warmed up… or is he overhyped. Let’s look at the facts.
The Pacific Classic was Arabian Knight’s fourth career start, and his second off that six-month layoff. The Hakell was nine furlongs, while the Pacific Classic was 10 furlongs. Before these races, the son of Uncle Mo had raced at seven and 8.5 furlongs. Despite the layoff and increas in distance, Arabian Knight earned a 121 TimeformUS figure, a career high, in the Haskell.
After that type of performance, it would be easy to envision Arabian Knight bouncing in his next start… especially when that would come in the even longer Pacific Classic against his elders. According to TimeformUS, Beyer, and Equibase figures, Arabian Knight did the exact opposite of bouncing, earning a career high of 126, 101, and 111.
This may be surprising considering the final time of the Pacific Classic, 2:03.19. However, the track variant was rated at a 19, indicating that the track was playing incredibly slow. For comparison, the variant for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, run in 2:03 flat was 6, indicating that the track was playing quite a bit faster.
On this slower surface, Arabian Knight set pressured splits of 23.35; 46.60; and 1:11.42. His mile split of 1:36.83 was the fastest mile on the card, run over the main track, by .58 seconds. Considering 5 lengths is equal to 12 points, that would mean that his mile split was run about 3.5 lengths, or over 8 points faster, despite his race being a quarter of a mile longer.
Even with running such testing splits over a very tiring track, Arabian Knight repelled Slow Down Andy, who had all the momentum on the turn, and staved off Geaux Rocke Ride’s stretch drive. It wasn’t a blowout, like many were wanting to see from him, but even so, it was still an impressive effort.
So, what’s the verdict? Currently, the facts say that Arabian Knight is an extremely talented individual who is delivering on the talent he displayed in his first two starts, even if he’s not blowing his opponents away. Despite this, the hesitation to back him is still understandable.
This is the second effort in a row where Arabian Knight has run very hard after coming off a lengthy layoff. Given his lack of foundation, doubts about his ability to handle a much more difficult field in the Breeders’ Cup Classic are warranted.
I personally would love to see him come back in one more prep, preferably the Awesome Again. This is dependent on who else shows up. If the race comes up without the rest of the 3-year-old class, I fell as though the Awesome Again Stakes would be a great way to get an extra bit of racing foundation into him, as well as the ability to earn another grade one. Should his division mates show up, I wouldn’t risk a third big effort that could leave the lemon dry for the Breeders Cup Classic.
All in all, I’m not going to change the minds of most critics. Many know these stats and simply won’t hear them. Even if they don’t, they won’t be swayed unless he actually wins the Classic. However, I prefer to go by facts, and the facts say that Arabian Knight is that good.
