Last week I saw an interesting conversation on social media between a few good handicappers. What I found interesting was that they seemed to do an awful lot of work and research to come up with an angle I have been following since the early 90’s and have made some really nice hits off of. At the end of the day you get paid the same no matter how you arrived at the winner, but it seemed to me they were complicating something I learned long ago was relatively simple.
It’s no secret horses mature. They are athletes. A two year old might be the equivalent of say an early teenager if we compare equine to human. A early teenage athlete will get stronger and faster as they arch upward towards their prime. A horse is no different.
Regardless of which speed figures you use, Beyers, Brisnet, Ragozins, Timeform, whatever, a newly turned three year old will usually surpass their better two year old figure early on. Many times as a first time three year old. They are getting stronger and faster. It will show on race day.
To the astute bettor this can mean opportunities.
You will find times when a newly turned three year old has what appear to be slower numbers than the bulk of the field. Many may dismiss the horse based on those slower figures. One must remain aware those numbers were run at two, not three. If you are comparing them to numbers run at three, which happens often right through this time of year and even beyond, it can be very misleading and create value and opportunities for sharp players.
If you know a horse is going to surpass their two year old figure, and when you can see that progression will put them at the head of the class, you’re betting on what’s not all that obvious to many players. That gives you an edge.
Of course, trainers, lay-off ability, and other handicapping principals come into play, but the premise is a strong one.
I have keyed several nice price winners using this theory over the years. Often after a race I was asked what did you like about that horse? Many others seemed faster. You already know the answer.
Finding angles or anything that gives you an edge is an advantage you need to beat the other players. There are several. This is only one. There are more and we intend to keep bringing them to you.
Hopefully now when you peruse your past performances you won’t be so fast to dismiss younger horses with numbers that at first glance might look like they don’t measure up. There is a curve. Things may not be as they appear. Betting on things that can or may happen is far more rewarding and lucrative than betting on what has already happened to happen again.
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