Keeneland, Race 5 – Friday, October 20, 2023
By 2YO EdgeMan
KEE5:102023 – Five and a half furlongs on the turf. 15 males are entered (14 colts and one lone gelding), but only 12 will make the starting gate. We’ve got a wide variation of experience – four are First-Time starters, two have started one time previously, three have been out twice, two have competed three times and one has already raced four times prior to today. Several of these fellas interest me, so let’s start breaking them down…
#1 – Brennan’s Honor (6/1) – Rusty Arnold trains this FTS colt who is by Twirling Candy and is out of an unraced Birdstone mare. His dam has thrown three others of racing age – one of the fillies won $481K on the track with a record of 6 for 31. Arnold is only 2 for 18 (11.1%) with FTSers at Keeneland in the fall over the prior five meets (2018 thru 2022), but those two winners paid handsomely. In 2021 he scored with a 17/1 shot and last year he saddled a winner at off odds of 15/1. Bidding stopped on today’s runner before it reached his reserve price of $270K earlier this year as a 2YO, but last year he sold as a yearling for $165K (27/82). He’s been stabled here at Keeneland since at least early August when he began his training. All told, he’s put in nine breezes over KEE’s dirt oval with his fastest being on 9/2/23 when he went a half mile in 47.8 seconds (10/46).
#2 – Gotta Keep Him (8/1) – This colt is out of a mare that won ten races from 30 tries and banked a whopping $1.1 million, including multiple scores in Grade 2 level events. She’s thrown four other foals of racing age, two of them have earned north of $100K and one of those was a first out winner at ELP in July of her 2YO year. His pops is Street Boss and this guy also did not meet his reserve price ($120K) earlier this year at the OBS April 2YO Sale. He’s been out two times prior to today, both on the lawn – first at Ellis Park and then at Kentucky Downs. In both of those races he went off at odds of less than 3/1. Last out, he was in touch with the leaders for much of the race, but tired to finish a well beaten seventh of 12. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has given him three half mile works since his last run.
#5 – Muazarah (8/1) – The mighty Shadwell Farm bred and owns this Into Mischief colt. He hails from a Bernardini mare who only raced three times, but scored in two of those for $71,000 in earnings – all as a three-year-old. This guy has been out in the afternoon twice, but both times were on the dirt. In late August, he debuted at ELP and passed horses as he went, ultimately finishing third of seven, 2 ¼ lengths shy of the winner. In his most recent run, he led for a half mile at Churchill in a seven furlong event, but weakened to finish well back. Conditioner Todd Pletcher kept him at CD and worked him twice over a half mile prior to shipping him to KEE for this one today. Luis Saez will ride him for the first time.
#6 – In a Jam (6/1) – Mark Casse will saddle this colt who’s by Preservationist. He sold just a few months ago – in the Fasig-Tipton August Select Digital Sale – when he brought $75,000, second most of the 25 that sold this year from his sire’s initial crop. He’s got the most race experience of any in this field, having already been out four times. He’s finished in the money in all of his events – three thirds and one second. His first two tries were on the dirt at Ellis Park, before Casse switched him over to turf for his most recent two. Also, his off odds have never been higher than 4/1. He’s had one half mile breeze since his last race here at Keeneland and he has a 3YO half sis that’s already won $439K, 2 for 11, including a Grade 2 race. Tyler will be his guide today, after having ridden him last time out at Kentucky Downs.
#11 – Spirit’s Mischief (7/2) – This colt is trained by two-year-old specialist, Wesley Ward. Although he’s even more successful in the spring at Keeneland, WW is 7 for 20 (35.0%) with Non-FTS here over the five previous fall meets (2018 thru 2022) with a positive ROI of $2.15. As you likely guessed from his name, this colt is by Into Mischief and his dam was a good one – 4 for 19, with $285K in purse money. This dude has raced one time – a five furlong sprint at Churchill Downs over the grass in late September. He actually made the lead in that run, but gave way to finish third of twelve, 4+ lengths short of the winner. Ward has sent him out here at KEE for one five panel morning work since his race. Ward gives Gerardo Corrales the return riding opportunity.
#12 – Oy Vey (9/2) – This colt is a First-Time starter from the dynamite stallion of two-year-old runners, Constitution (from WinStar Farm). His mom found the Winner’s Circle nine times in the 19 races that she ran and banked a sweet $385K. She was a second out winner at what they then called ‘Hoosier Park’ in October of her 2YO year. She also went on to become a winner of a Grade 2 event and threw a foal that won $439K (5 for 20), including a win in her first try as a 2YO at Horseshoe Indiana in October and also a win in her second race, while still two – an allowance event at the Fair Grounds in December. Oy Vey is a homebred from Klein Racing and he’s trained by Brad Cox. As far as his work tab, he started his work back in early June on the All-Weather strip at Turfway Park. After twelve morning moves there, he vanned over here to Keeneland for two more five furlong drills, giving him five total works at 5/8th of a mile. He flashed some speed while in Northern Kentucky – on 8/5/23 he went a half in 48 seconds flat (1/41) and then on 8/25/23, he covered the same distance in 47.6 seconds (3/44). Prat gets the call to be his reinsman.
Pick – #11 Spirit’s Mischief – A post position this far out with such a short run to the turn is worrisome, but I think that he’s fast enough to overcome it. He likely has his main competition one spot outside of him and I think he’ll be ok. Ward is so tough here at KEE, even in the fall (see above). I like that he’s had a five panel work at Keeneland since his debut and believe he’s going to be very tough in this spot. Don’t expect long odds, but I do feel that he’s got enough competition (unless a few get scratched) that he’ll not go off too low.
Enjoy this one – it should be fun. And we’ve got one more on Saturday (Race 5). Best of luck and stay well, my Edgie Champions.
